January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

And maybe early February

MJO starts moving into favorable positions by then too.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z NAM is pushing the energy further west at 57hr vs 18z NAM at 63hr fwiw

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

0z NAM is pushing the energy further west at 57hr vs 18z NAM at 63hr fwiw

It is.

Sort of like the GFS did vs it's 12z run.    

Stop being positive, it's unsettling.  

[stormtracker]

NAM is def better at H5 vs 18z, Im at 81...some snow, just above freezing at this frame tho.

 

84:  Precip heavier, still slightly above freezing, still all around kinda sloppy tho

[TSSN+]

Nam kinda looks nice at the end of the run. Heh 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's the NAM, but

[TSSN+]

[NorthArlington101]

Time for a thread. Idk who wants to own this stinker, but it must be done. We’ve got other things to post here 

[anotherman]

HAHAHAHAHA the NAM is obviously an Eagles fan and is on a bender after that game.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Time for a thread. Idk who wants to own this stinker, but it must be done. We’ve got other things to post here 

Wait until tomorrow afternoon.

[SnowenOutThere]

23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Time for a thread. Idk who wants to own this stinker, but it must be done. We’ve got other things to post here 

Created. Made it clear I’m not taking ownership like December storms 

[ravensrule]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Created. Made it clear I’m not taking ownership like December storms 

Bring this MF’er home. 

[Dendrimer77]

48 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's all about the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern. There are strong patterns in certain places in the hemisphere when DC/Baltimore gets >7" snowstorms. When the pattern is cold, with room to spare, long range threats/patterns are worth following. We have -AO tendency this Winter, December was colder than average in the Northeast and we are probably colder than average in the 2nd half of January. I've been pretty bullish on the Winter pattern general, although the STJ is really dry. The last few days of January has potential, imo. And maybe early February. ENSO subsurface Kelvin wave is occurring, and that historically correlates with more +PNA in the north pacific. Give us -AO running south into a ridge over Greenland, with a 50/50 low under it, and the pattern looks suddenly favorable. Unfortunately it's 15 days out, but it does have support with things actually occurring, like in ENSO, and Winter -AO tendency from -SLP 60-90N this past warm season (correlation good since 2012).

When it comes to whether it's gonna snow or not Chuck is like the ol' man in a Christmas Story, "Oh he knows, he always knows"

[stormtracker]

Well, I was gonna give it another day, but if yall want the thread, I'll leave it.   Movin on over there

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, I was gonna give it another day, but if yall want the thread, I'll leave it.   Movin on over there

See id be against it if it was the only game in town but when we got three windows we gotta be siloing out the dying ones 

[Maestrobjwa]

Icon looks like it has a lottle something with the CAPE storm...although the way the precip oriented hurt my feelings

[pazzo83]

53 minutes ago, anotherman said:

HAHAHAHAHA the NAM is obviously an Eagles fan and is on a bender after that game.

lol - it's like "where the f*ck is Sirianni's house!"

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

It is.

Sort of like the GFS did vs it's 12z run.    

Stop being positive, it's unsettling.  

Did I ever tell anyone that in my mind's eye, I picture Chuck as Napolean Dynamite?

[stormtracker]

Ok, let's see if we can conjure up this cape storm

[Ji]

Ok, let's see if we can conjure up this cape storm

Icon literally has the cape storm…just for cape

[stormtracker]

Well GFS H5 is different vs 18z.  It's like roulette these days

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Icon literally has the cape storm…just for cape

Thursday the 8th, the 12z run 180hrs panel of the Icon gave us a snowstorm.  This is just where we wantvit if we want snow in 180 hours. Lol

[stormtracker]

One day we're gonna win yall.  Just not tonight it seems.  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well GFS H5 is different vs 18z.  It's like roulette these days

I swear the pre-2018 Euro version was better than any model now, including the current Euro.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I swear the pre-2018 Euro version was better than any model now, including the current Euro.

I said it before, can they downgrade the models? 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I swear the pre-2018 Euro version was better than any model now, including the current Euro.

This shit is depressing, ngl.  But we all know it's gonna keep changing.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

One day we're gonna win yall.  Just not tonight it seems.  

These trough that come in with a NE/SW shape and hook southeast aren't going to work for us. We need a west to east progression. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This shit is depressing, ngl.  But we all know it's gonna keep changing.

Consistency is key they say. Too bad there is none. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

One day we're gonna win yall.  Just not tonight it seems.  

GFS completely cuts off the SS interaction...mercy.

[TSSN+]

That run had a slight improvement on the h5. Brings in a little dusting to an inch it looks like. Our new standard.