January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I can really only think of 1 with that mentality lol

Their persistence skews the overall sentiment.

[CAPE]

lol snow map isnt much different than 12z, when everyone was chipper.

[Kay]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The crux of that is that there are a handful of users here that have this all or nothing mentality for our snow, if we’re not getting a HECS then we’re getting nothing at all. Even though that isn’t our only way to get snow. They’re persistent enough to make that opinion the “loudest”.

Now without a HECS hitting climo is an uphill climb but a complete dead ratter when the metros had their snowiest December in nearly a decade seems to be a bit presumptuous…

I totally agree. I see you out there fighting the fight. My joke fell flat. It's an uphill battle, man, those are indeed the "loudest", as you say, and always draw the most attn. I haven't given up on this winter no f-in way.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Late week storm still on the table per the 18z GEFS. I think we know it’s probably a light event if it happens.

Snow is snow

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

I’m probably adding fuel to the fire lol. I’m such a bad poster lolol

probably should stop posting for a while and fix myself up. Focus on school instead 

Go on

[bncho]

Okay euro is running. Good luck to us

[mitchnick]

umm, I know TSSN+ posted the Ukie stunk for storm 1, but I don't think anyone posted anything on the Ukie's take on the Cape storm, did they?

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

umm, I know TSSN+ posted the Ukie stunk for storm 1, but I don't think anyone posted anything on the Ukie's take on the Cape storm, did they?

Just looks like a reply of the Thursday storm. Cut off that comes from the north. Surface is pretty dry. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Just looks like a reply of the Thursday storm. Cut off that comes from the north. Surface is pretty dry. 

Dry because it hasn't gotten near the coast.

[SnowenOutThere]

So far with the Euro's run it doesn't seem like an improvement.

[CAPE]

Cape storm pretty much the same on the 18z GEFS as well.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

So far with the Euro's run it doesn't seem like an improvement.

Out to 105 it looks like “what storm”

[Maestrobjwa]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty persistent signal across guidance over the last few runs for this type of setup. Big storm potential with significant moisture overrunning cold HP.

 

I'd love to have a simple path. But ngl...until I finally get a flush hit here, I'm always gonna be worried about a miss south. Been so long since we just got a flush, not-too-suppressed hit.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Out to 105 it looks like “what storm”

It's a dud.  Nothing save from some light stuff

[Warm Nose]

Are we at the "iT wAs AlWaYs EaRlY fEbRuArY" phase of this thread yet?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's a dud.  Nothing save from some light stuff

H5 cut off over pa not ideal. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Warm Nose said:

Are we at the "iT wAs AlWaYs EaRlY fEbRuArY" phase of this thread yet?

I’m all in on Jan 23-25. But until then, it’s no bueno. Gonna see if it’s worth a drive to WV this weekend and catch some extra sleep this week. 

[Steve25]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

there should be a thread where only meteorologists and pro forecasters can post, view only for everybody else

Came here to say this exact thing. Bias gets involved for most in here, even some of those who really know their stuff. I think it’s fine to have a thread like this where people can give their analysis but also express emotional reactions. It would just be really nice to have one thread that’s JUST analysis without all the added noise. 

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a dud.  Nothing

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a dud.  Nothing save from some light stuff

Which means the Icon, Ukie, and Canadian outperformed the Euro and Gfs IF this forecast holds. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Cape storm pretty much the same on the 18z GEFS as well.

Alright Cape if this doesn't work it's gonna have to be changed to the Cod storm...I don't like cod 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Which means the Icon, Ukie, and Canadian outperformed the Euro and Gfs IF this forecast holds. 

Lol. JI isn't wrong when he Saya go with the least snowiest model

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Which means the Icon, Ukie, and Canadian outperformed the Euro and Gfs IF this forecast holds. 

If my grandmother was my grandfather, she would have balls. 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Lol. JI isn't wrong when he Saya go with the least snowiest model

He is always wrong. 

[CAPE]

I wouldn't give up yet. As we all know sometimes models struggle with these 'oddly' evolving events, only to bring them back later. As I posted, the 18z GEFS looks pretty much the same as 12z. Not much different at all.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Which means the Icon, Ukie, and Canadian outperformed the Euro and Gfs IF this forecast holds. 

I wish we had the 2017 Euro. Good old reliable 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Which means the Icon, Ukie, and Canadian outperformed the Euro and Gfs IF this forecast holds. 

Jv models ftw 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, CAPE said:

I wouldn't give up yet. As we all know sometimes models struggle with these 'oddly' evolving events, only to bring them back later. As I posted, the 18z GEFS looks pretty much the same as 12z. different at all

Wonder if your time period would've worked out on the 18z Euro. It has a completely different (and better) look than 12z

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I wouldn't give up yet. As we all know sometimes models struggle with these 'oddly' evolving events, only to bring them back later. As I posted, the 18z GEFS looks pretty much the same as 12z. different at all

Gfs is the only model now that has the 5h cut off swing under us though. Agree not to say it’s over till maybe tomorrow if it all goes to crap. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright Cape if this doesn't work it's gonna have to be changed to the Cod storm...I don't like cod 

Fresh cod is wonderful.