January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chris78]

28 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Chuck likes SE ridges 

And - pna's

[WxUSAF]

GFSAI has some digital blue in fantasy range. Everyone get a little hit to tide you over. First hit is free, then you gotta pay.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Exactly, I agree.  Yeah, we all get a bit frustrated or disappointed when there's nothing much specific on the horizon in terms of snow events.  Or when the models go all over the place, creating the inevitable mood swings.  And even a bit of venting is OK.  However, as you say, the constant bitching with page after page of the same people whining that "it's over!!!" gets really old and detracts from the actual discussion.

Can people still be five-posted (as has been done in storm threads upon occasion)?  Like if someone posts a bunch of whiny BS and nothing more several times succession in any of the discussion threads (medium range or for specific events), they get five-posted for awhile.

I'd be on board with that. Shoot these days I 5-post myself if when I'm feeling a certain kind of way, lol But yeah if I had a vote I'd say do that...it would help everybody. If you're frustrated it does not good to vent continuously--because it only perpetuates a bad mood and ya don't feel better!

[WxUSAF]

Can everyone now please follow @NorthArlington101’s example and continue this fascinating discussion in banter?

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFSAI has some digital blue in fantasy range. Everyone get a little hit to tide you over. First hit is free, then you gotta pay.

Was loading up a jaws at the end too. Nice run. Step back from the ledge my friends!

Eta: waiting for someone to chime in and overanalyze hr 384 on the ai and remind me the hp is pulling away and how we lose in that setup 

[Ji]

37 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

BAM WX says that January -AAM/MJO 6 analogs since 1990 favor cold for most of the central and eastern US. Whether this is 100% true is questionable, but it's still interesting to note.

bam is doing everything it can to save face

[WEATHER53]

11 hours ago, Ji said:

I think winter ended tonight. For every progress we make we lose 4 steps one run later

Do you still believe in defending models ?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

 

BAM WX says that January -AAM/MJO 6 analogs since 1990 favor cold for most of the central and eastern US. Whether this is 100% true is questionable, but it's still interesting to note.

This is BAMwx’s image: see lower right…that coldest area over the SE is ~-6 to -7 F for Jan -AAM phase 6s:

 

 The following are results of my research, which looked at GSP, a station in that coldest (pink) area, during La Niña Jans on that lower right map:

 

Niña Year….# phase 6 days in Jan…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8 M

1976…13…-9 W-S

1989…3…+8 M

1999…3…+2 M

2000…3…-4 W

2006…6…+3 S

2008…3…+8 S

2009…6…+1 W-M

2011…12…-7 W-S

2012…19…+1 W-S

2017…2…0 W

2018…3…-2 S

2021…8…-1 M-S

2022…4…-9 W

2025…2…-5 W

W weak (mainly in or near circle), M mod., S strong

91 total days (big sample)

 So, not surprisingly, there’s a wide spread. But the overall avg temp. anomaly at GSP during La Niña Jan phase 6s over the last 50 years did avg out to -2 F, a bit counterintuitive. So, this tells me two things:
 

- Any possible phase 6 this month won’t necessarily favor mild in the E US though the spread is wide and it could end up that way

- BAMwx’s -6 to -7 area in the SE and that map in general is significantly too cold for La Niña Jan phase 6. Only 6 of the 15 periods (40%) were about as cold as BAMwx. But the 40% does show a -6 to -7ish phase 6 this month would be doable.

 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

It gets worse every day.  That’s why I barely come here anymore.  We live in a region where it doesn’t snow or stay cold from December to March. Go figure. 

We used to have so many participants here and hundreds and hundreds when a snow event was looming.  Not nearly so nowdays and it’s not the nature of the participants but rather changing dynamics and clueless, unstable models 

[Ji]

20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Do you still believe in defending models ?

yes. Models have nothing to do with a bad pattern

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is BAMwx’s image: see lower right…that coldest area over the SE is ~-6 to -7 F for Jan -AAM phase 6s:

 

 The following are results of my research, which looked at GSP, a station in that coldest (pink) area, during La Niña Jans on that lower right map:

 

Niña Year….# phase 6 days in Jan…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8 M

1976…13…-9 W-S

1989…3…+8 M

1999…3…+2 M

2000…3…-4 W

2006…6…+3 S

2008…3…+8 S

2009…6…+1 W-M

2011…12…-7 W-S

2012…19…+1 W-S

2017…2…0 W

2018…3…-2 S

2021…8…-1 M-S

2022…4…-9 W

2025…2…-5 W

W weak (mainly in or near circle), M mod., S strong

91 total days (big sample)

 So, not surprisingly, there’s a wide spread. But the overall avg temp. anomaly at GSP during La Niña Jan phase 6s over the last 50 years did avg out to -2 F, a bit counterintuitive. So, this tells me two things:
 

- Any possible phase 6 this month won’t necessarily favor mild in the E US though the spread is wide and it could end up that way

- BAMwx’s -6 to -7 area in the SE and that map in general is significantly too cold for La Niña Jan phase 6. Only 6 of the 15 periods (40%) were about as cold as BAMwx. But the 40% does show a -6 to -7ish phase 6 this month would be doable.

 

Excellent work as always GaWx.  My initial thought is how is this correlation with phase 6 when you consider the SST anomaly not being significant?  DT was suggesting we are basically near neutral at this point.

[Ji]

this looks interesting

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

this looks interesting

meh...snow showers but with a few more tweaks

[Ji]

we lost the Euro AI. Winter appears to be over unfortunately.

[winter_warlock]

12 hours ago, Ji said:

3-3. Euro with an atrocious run

 Hopefully it improves in a day or 3

[bncho]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is BAMwx’s image: see lower right…that coldest area over the SE is ~-6 to -7 F for Jan -AAM phase 6s:

 

 The following are results of my research, which looked at GSP, a station in that coldest (pink) area, during La Niña Jans on that lower right map:

 

Niña Year….# phase 6 days in Jan…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8 M

1976…13…-9 W-S

1989…3…+8 M

1999…3…+2 M

2000…3…-4 W

2006…6…+3 S

2008…3…+8 S

2009…6…+1 W-M

2011…12…-7 W-S

2012…19…+1 W-S

2017…2…0 W

2018…3…-2 S

2021…8…-1 M-S

2022…4…-9 W

2025…2…-5 W

W weak (mainly in or near circle), M mod., S strong

91 total days (big sample)

 So, not surprisingly, there’s a wide spread. But the overall avg temp. anomaly at GSP during La Niña Jan phase 6s over the last 50 years did avg out to -2 F, a bit counterintuitive. So, this tells me two things:
 

- Any possible phase 6 this month won’t necessarily favor mild in the E US though the spread is wide and it could end up that way

- BAMwx’s -6 to -7 area in the SE and that map in general is significantly too cold for La Niña Jan phase 6. Only 6 of the 15 periods (40%) were about as cold as BAMwx. But the 40% does show a -6 to -7ish phase 6 this month would be doable.

 

Excellent analysis. I wonder why MJO 6 leans cold with -AAM… but thank you so much!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

we lost the Euro AI. Winter is over people

 Damn the winter is over talk is starting already.. on Jan 4th!! Lol

[winter_warlock]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is BAMwx’s image: see lower right…that coldest area over the SE is ~-6 to -7 F for Jan -AAM phase 6s:

 

 The following are results of my research, which looked at GSP, a station in that coldest (pink) area, during La Niña Jans on that lower right map:

 

Niña Year….# phase 6 days in Jan…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8 M

1976…13…-9 W-S

1989…3…+8 M

1999…3…+2 M

2000…3…-4 W

2006…6…+3 S

2008…3…+8 S

2009…6…+1 W-M

2011…12…-7 W-S

2012…19…+1 W-S

2017…2…0 W

2018…3…-2 S

2021…8…-1 M-S

2022…4…-9 W

2025…2…-5 W

W weak (mainly in or near circle), M mod., S strong

91 total days (big sample)

 So, not surprisingly, there’s a wide spread. But the overall avg temp. anomaly at GSP during La Niña Jan phase 6s over the last 50 years did avg out to -2 F, a bit counterintuitive. So, this tells me two things:
 

- Any possible phase 6 this month won’t necessarily favor mild in the E US though the spread is wide and it could end up that way

- BAMwx’s -6 to -7 area in the SE and that map in general is significantly too cold for La Niña Jan phase 6. Only 6 of the 15 periods (40%) were about as cold as BAMwx. But the 40% does show a -6 to -7ish phase 6 this month would be doable.

 

 Umm I always thought phase 6 was a warm phase..  this shows a cold phase  with a. Deep trough in east ... Hmm

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Damn the winter is over talk is starting already.. on Jan 4th!! Lol

hopefully we can do one thing with an opportunity that we get this winter

[Scraff]

Love seeing a low along our coast on 1/15 (12z Euro). Plenty of time to reel that in with lots of cold available. Potential is certainly there.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Was loading up a jaws at the end too. Nice run. Step back from the ledge my friends!

Eta: waiting for someone to chime in and overanalyze hr 384 on the ai and remind me the hp is pulling away and how we lose in that setup 

PATIENCE!

[Ji]

the issue is everything is out of sync. there is nothing lining up that gets us cold with moisture. When there is a rare Southern Stream moment...its too warm. When its cold...we are relying on a a clipper diving down. None of things will really work

[Ji]

here is another example. Nice cold air push here but there isnt anything within 1000 miles that could spark a storm.

[Ji]

more out of sync examples. Energy keeps stuck in the SW

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

hopefully we can do one thing with an opportunity that we get this winter

 Can only hope brother!! And a prayer wouldn't hurt lol

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

the issue is everything is out of sync. there is nothing lining up that gets us cold with moisture. When there is a rare Southern Stream moment...its too warm. When its cold...we are relying on a a clipper diving down. None of things will really work

 It's gotta line up one of these times !!

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Umm I always thought phase 6 was a warm phase..  this shows a cold phase  with a. Deep trough in east ... Hmm

 As I said, I think BAMwx is significantly too cold in the means (which is what their map is supposed to represent). That pink area of -6 to -7 in the SE is, in reality (based on actual data that I analyzed) more like -2 along with much variation. And I didn’t analyze it for the entire E half of the US, which would take too long. If I get time, I could add a city like Baltimore, however, just to get an idea for this forum’s area.

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Love seeing a low along our coast on 1/15 (12z Euro). Plenty of time to reel that in with lots of cold available. Potential is certainly there.

Is Euro only one showing that?

[Ji]

Jan 16--zero southern stream.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Ji said:

Jan 16--zero southern stream.

It's a La Nina pattern. That shouldn't be a surprise.