January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Nice gradient look. Just need a significant wave to ride along it and snow on us.

[EastCoast NPZ]

52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm gonna guess he meant that if such a scenario were to materialize, it would be a simpler way to score?

Im sure he's just being sarcastic.

[bncho]

from eric webb:

[Ji]

from eric webb:

What message board is this?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What message board is this?

southernwx

[Ji]

Per Ai


DC winter weather is like ordering a steak and getting a salad. Technically food. Emotionally devastating.

[Ji]

southernwx

Thanks

[adelphi_sky]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Per Ai


DC winter weather is like ordering a steak and getting a salad. Technically food. Emotionally devastating.

Hear me out. Would a steak salad be okay? 

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Per Ai


DC winter weather is like ordering a steak and getting a salad. Technically food. Emotionally devastating.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

from eric webb:

Let's go. Now my question is...how is the PDO looking? If it stays hostile I'm a tad skeptical of even an El Niño delivering next year. I mean 23-24 was one of the most mediocre ninos we've had--I'm not sure whether the raging -PDO was the main cause or whether the Hunga Tonga eruption 2 years prior had something to do with it too.

[winter_warlock]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Yowzahs Gefs 

 Now that is a thing of beauty!!! 

[nj2va]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let's go. Now my question is...how is the PDO looking? If it continues to stay hostile I'm skeptical of even an El Niño delivering next year. I mean 23-24 was one of the most mediocre ninos we've had--I'm not sure whether the raging -PDO was the main cause or whether the Hunga Tonga eruption 2 years prior had something to do with it too.

Models can’t get week 2 right. Who cares about what next year may or may not deliver. Just my .02

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Models can’t get week 2 right. Who cares about what next year may or may not deliver. Just my .02

I do! I realize that my innate tendency to jump way ahead to the next season and speculate doesn't mesh well here, but ah c'mon man it doesn't hurt. It's just speculation. And El Niño is currently starting to show signs of it's presence, so that part isn't about models not getting it right--as it does appear to be happening now, and it could influence THIS winter. Besides...who wouldn't wwant to have another swing at El Niño lined up for next year while we see what this one is gonna do? (I like a good back-up plan myself )

[Ji]

Another disaster gfs run. No southern stream

[Ji]

Horrible runs tonight so far. One step forward and 3 back

[Ji]

3-3. Euro with an atrocious run

[Ji]

Putrid run by the euro ai. What happened tonight lol

[Ji]

I think winter ended tonight. For every progress we make we lose 4 steps one run later

[bncho]

just for you, ji 

 

[Ji]

just for you, ji 
 

What are you showing me. I already said the euro run was horrendous

[TSSN+]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

I think winter ended tonight. For every progress we make we lose 4 steps one run later

It’s best to not pay attention to the models till we have something inside day 5. It’s a waste of time. 

[Weather Will]

Unfortunately, MJO is now forecasted into Phase 6 mid month.  Until it goes through it, not much hope for a good pattern.  This was not expected by any of the snowy, cold prognosticators even a week ago.

[aldie 22]

Lol man you guys are psychotic 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Lol man you guys are psychotic 

I'm trying to be optimistic this winter, but it's concerning to see a decent pattern getting can kicked or outright canceled repeatedly. The only thing that's saved us from a dead ratter in the snowfall department are the two minor December events.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm trying to be optimistic this winter, but it's concerning to see a decent pattern getting can kicked or outright canceled repeatedly. The only thing that's saved us from a dead ratter in the snowfall department are the two minor December events.

Its early January lol.

[CAPE]

Fucking hell

[BristowWx]

7 hours ago, Ji said:

What are you showing me. I already said the euro run was horrendous

I think he was just emphasizing to maybe take the gas out of the snowblower and put in the lawn mower. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

For anyone that wants to play along (disclaimer: i truly hate dissecting model data in the long range but for the sake of the sanity of some members...) .....this 500mb chart depicts a weak trof in the West and a flattened SER. Im not going to repeat what @CAPEand I have discussed repeatedly the past 3 or 4 days. Just because you see blue out west and red in the east does not spell disaster.  Top map is the 500mb chart at 366, below that are the 2m and 850 temps respectively. 

[mappy]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fucking hell

This thread never disappoints in the wtf department lol

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

This thread never disappoints in the wtf department lol

Looking at 240hr+ operational models, etc and expecting it to be correct is the peoples problems lol. If learned anything the last few years models stuggle till inside 120 and even then they have had issues inside that.