January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Y'all actually doing pbp on GFS op run 10 days out? lol

[T. August]

Real talk though, not a good outcome verbatim but there’s probably gonna be a monster storm affecting the eastern 1/3 of the US on or around the 8th. It’s all you can ask for 10 days out.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Y'all actually doing pbp on GFS op run 10 days out? lol

Nothing else going on

[87storms]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

I need another bourbon.

Had tequila the other night and, while I appreciate the fact that it gave me zero hangover, bourbon is still the goat imo.

[bncho]

southern stream wave is just too quick for the phase on the CMC. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

Real talk though, not a good outcome verbatim but there’s probably gonna be a monster storm affecting the eastern 1/3 of the US on or around the 8th. It’s all you can ask for 10 days out.

Unfortunately, the Pacific 500mb doesn't change into a favorable state until mid month. (Unless models are wrong of course)

[CAPE]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Nothing else going on

I suppose. Just watched the Falcons beat the Rams. Didn't see that coming. Stafford has been so good but not tonight.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

So Dec 2025 will be the most negative NAO Winter month (DJFM) since December 2010! 15 years, and 60 Winter months! 

With the 1st half of January looking like -NAO, we may beat the record for most -NAO Winter since 2010-2011. We need -0.24 for the Winter average to have that, and through Jan 15, we will have about -1.00, meaning that we need <+0.50 for the 2nd half of Winter to have the most -NAO Winter in 15 years!  Nice longer term pattern brake. 

[87storms]

Ngl, it’s like of awesome being on west coast time. 845 here and the gfs is almost done. Looked more like a workable front end App runner than a cutter.

[Solution Man]

Just now, CAPE said:

I suppose. Just watched the Falcons beat the Rams. Didn't see that coming. Stafford has been so good but not tonight.

Stafford was not good, very shocking…lots of money lost tonight 

[SnowenOutThere]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Disastrous day. Good night

Cmon Ji think about it this way, we just gained over an inch of rain in one run! 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Ngl, it’s like of awesome being on west coast time. 845 here and the gfs is almost done. Looked more like a workable front end App runner than a cutter.

Agree, turned out ugly, but many different solutions coming. Trackable stuff

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So Dec 2025 will be the most negative NAO Winter month (DJFM) since December 2010! 15 years, and 60 Winter months! 

With the 1st half of January looking like -NAO, we may beat the record for most -NAO Winter since 2010-2011. We need -0.24 for the Winter average to have that, and through Jan 15, we will have about -1.00, meaning that we need <+0.50 for the 2nd half of Winter to have the most -NAO Winter in 15 years!  Nice longer term pattern brake. 

Enter the cooler 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Cmon Ji think about it this way, we just gained over an inch of rain in one run! 

Ji is having mocktails with the real housewives of Leesburg. 

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Unfortunately, the Pacific 500mb doesn't change into a favorable state until mid month. (Unless models are wrong of course)

I don't like that +EPO

[bncho]

GFS teeing another hit up. Thermals TBD

[CAPE]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Agree, turned out ugly, but many different solutions coming. Trackable stuff

Block broke down. HP runs away and low tracks west. No coastal redevelopment in that scenario. We got a few more runs to go.

[LordBaltimore]

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

It's going to be too warm for DC. Chuck 1-0.

our goat is washed :(

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS teeing another hit up. Thermals TBD

We may have different definitions of "teeing up a hit". The h5 is way too large and not amplified. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

We may have different definitions of "teeing up a hit". The h5 is way too large and not amplified. 

if i see fantasy blue over my house, i call it a hit. i have no standards lol. the GFS is a hit in my book

[pazzo83]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Y'all actually doing pbp on GFS op run 10 days out? lol

back in my day, folks would've been banned for this lol

[high risk]

I know that we're all chasing big dogs, but this would be a nice start to 2026 if it happens.   NAM Nest and RGEM aren't as tasty as the HiRes FV3, but they all have the idea of some sort of quick-hitting band right on the front.

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

back in my day, folks would've been banned for this lol

This might be the most important January since 2016.

[stormtracker]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Y'all actually doing pbp on GFS op run 10 days out? lol

It’s a goddamn shame. 

[Daniel Boone]

27 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

our goat is washed

Let's not forget it's the GooFuS. 

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, high risk said:

I know that we're all chasing big dogs, but this would be a nice start to 2026 if it happens.   NAM Nest and RGEM aren't as tasty as the HiRes FV3, but they all have the idea of some sort of quick-hitting band right on the front.

I’m down with running back January 3rd of last year. Sorta funny how that squall kicked off an active period too! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The start of an arctic pattern if it verifies