January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models have a colder pattern by the 12th.

Could even get delayed a bit, but will happen...

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today is the 32nd consecutive day on which the PNA is < 0. Despite the EPS and GEFS currently showing only a brief turn to positive, the historic evidence since 1980 suggests that a regime change to an extended period of a predominantly positive PNA is likely once the current stretch of PNA- concludes. Until one is in the short-range of the teleconnection forecasts, the base case remains a regime shift in the PNA, not a temporary fluctuation to positive values. 

All 10 prior streaks of 30 or more consecutive days since 1980 ended with a regime change in the PNA.

Flip back to RNA in January is as fraudulent as Mark Moregarbage's met creds.

[203whiteout]

Solid snow pack left in SW CT. Even down to the coast. 100% coverage in Fairfield County. Got almost an inch NYE and then another half inch to an inch last night. Looks like it’s gone by mid to late week. SMH. It seems we are stuck in a multi year cycle of storms not coming through this area when the cold is here, but when it’s warm it rains, rains and rains. Epic Greenland blocks that go to waste, negative NAOs go to waste, cold air but very little precip. Very odd weather. Heard the 80s were very similar (I was born 1990). Yes, December was pretty cold and we have a little over a foot of snow this season so far but it’s been years since we’ve had a true nor’easter with totals over a foot plus (several years). Hopefully the mid month time frame works out. I can see a big storm happening followed by another warm up and a lot of rain in this type of set up this January.


.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Do you have a neighbor with a snowmobile?  

Strongly strongly considering buying one. 

[Fozz]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Edge of my seat...

You should be. It’s a cool thing to see. Even if it isn’t a 16” snowstorm.

[mreaves]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Strongly strongly considering buying one. 

I saw the track in the pic and was wondering. 

[WxWatcher007]

51 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I saw the track in the pic and was wondering. 

I was on the rail trail up here. I’m not knowledgeable enough to know if the trails are in good condition but a lot of folks were out today, hikers and riders. 

[ineedsnow]

Overnight models really like Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning

[mahk_webstah]

From GYX

ASOUT

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Evening Update... No notable deviation from the NBM tonight, but we will be keeping a closer eye on a system for Wednesday. Monday starts the week on a cold note with highs in the teens to low 20s. Scattered snow showers are possible Monday night as a warm front lifts through the area, marking the start of a warming trend for midweek. Models have been consistently showing a substantial warm up for mid to late week, but recent runs from the Euro, and especially the Euro AI put this into more question. They have started to show a round of wintry precip for Wednesday with colder air in place, and have a more muted warm up through the end of the week. Other models have just started to show this trend on the latest 00z runs for the first time. We`ll have to see if this trend continues, but with the Euro family often leading the pack it looks increasingly likely that the forecast will be trending cooler for mid to late next week.

 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Overnight models really like Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning

For rain

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

From GYX

ASOUT

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Evening Update... No notable deviation from the NBM tonight, but we will be keeping a closer eye on a system for Wednesday. Monday starts the week on a cold note with highs in the teens to low 20s. Scattered snow showers are possible Monday night as a warm front lifts through the area, marking the start of a warming trend for midweek. Models have been consistently showing a substantial warm up for mid to late week, but recent runs from the Euro, and especially the Euro AI put this into more question. They have started to show a round of wintry precip for Wednesday with colder air in place, and have a more muted warm up through the end of the week. Other models have just started to show this trend on the latest 00z runs for the first time. We`ll have to see if this trend continues, but with the Euro family often leading the pack it looks increasingly likely that the forecast will be trending cooler for mid to late next week.

 

Looks mild with a cutter end of the week. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks cool to me 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks cool to me 

GFS and Canadian are close for him Tuesday PM. rain pike south .. maybe 1-3” Monday too for Mass and points north 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS and Canadian are close for him Tuesday PM. rain pike south .. maybe 1-3” Monday too for Mass and points north 

Yeah he’s NW or concord. But not sure what GYX means by cooler trends. 

[CoastalWx]

Pattern looks like garbage until mid month.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern looks like garbage until mid month.

Ya , clean the rods off Wednesday through Sunday with 40s and 50s. Then we reshuffle.  

[ineedsnow]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For rain

Not here.. i think it will be snow or a mix

[mahk_webstah]

You know more than me Scott. 
I figure 2-4” tues pm Wednesday maybe ends as drizzle.  Then it warms up a bit but maybe it not too much.  Then the week of the 11th gets interesting.  That’s my takeaway.  The hint towards a colder trend in 0z guidance?  I don’t look at models I just read others’ interpretations.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Not here.. i think it will be snow or a mix

Not what they show. Maybe to start?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

You know more than me Scott. 
I figure 2-4” tues pm Wednesday maybe ends as drizzle.  Then it warms up a bit but maybe it too much.  Then the week of the 11th gets interesting.  That’s my takeaway.  The hint towards a colder trend in 0z guidance?  I don’t look at models I just read others’ interpretations.

I mean you can loop them, but looks like garbage until mid month especially down here. And even after that doesn’t exactly move the needle for me. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I don’t see 50’s anywhere. 

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not what they show. Maybe to start?

6z GFS has snow to ice..  ICON.and Ukie are advisory snows.. Euro a mix

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You know more than me Scott. 
I figure 2-4” tues pm Wednesday maybe ends as drizzle.  Then it warms up a bit but maybe it not too much.  Then the week of the 11th gets interesting.  That’s my takeaway.  The hint towards a colder trend in 0z guidance?  I don’t look at models I just read others’ interpretations.

I agree with you, definitely have hope up there and the thaw is quick 3-5 days. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see 50’s anywhere. 

Looks inevitable for at least one day .. next Saturday, I’d it trends colder could stay in 40s but if we trend a bit warmer we hit the 60s.. 

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree with you, definitely have hope up there and the thaw is quick 3-5 days. 

That looks to be about the extent of it.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks inevitable for at least one day .. next Saturday, I’d it trends colder could stay in 40s but if we trend a bit warmer we hit the 60s.. 

Grab 1-2” tonight, enjoy a snowy morning tomorrow and then see where the week takes us. 

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You know more than me Scott. 
I figure 2-4” tues pm Wednesday maybe ends as drizzle.  Then it warms up a bit but maybe it not too much.  Then the week of the 11th gets interesting.  That’s my takeaway.  The hint towards a colder trend in 0z guidance?  I don’t look at models I just read others’ interpretations.

Yup. We CAD Wed AM. GFS was pretty snowy. We may have to watch for a warm layer around H8 when it starts getting in meso range. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Grab 1-2” tonight, enjoy a snowy morning tomorrow and then see where the week takes us. 

D-1”

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

D-1”

A fluffy inch will be common in SNE. Won’t be surprising if a few pull 2”

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A fluffy inch will be common in SNE. Won’t be surprising if a few pull 2”

GL