January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Where would you go?

Not far.....but probably back south a bit, or west...if I am to stay at this latitude, I need more longitude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

1980s style like last year.

Early February was the one redeeming period last year.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

That MJO phase 7 doesn’t look like it’s happening beyond a blip. Synoptically it’s not long enough for the pattern to conform…

 

I think we go back in the freezer and phase 8 and it’s wagons south for the big snows… Colder and Drier with latitude…

La Niña and the calendar reigns…

 

Not happy to report but that’s how it looks now. Maybe a great period for heavy snowfall in the most southern sections of the forum.

 

If you’re looking for big snow you want to be in the mid Atlantic during last 10 days of Jan.

 

This is completely different than my three-day-ago thoughts…but oh well. 

Kind of what my thoughts have been the last week.  I said I like next week possibly for something but then I think 1/24-2/1 or so its SE/MA thing and then 2/1-2/10 is when another window opens here.  I am not buying the breakdown at the end of ensembles yet.   They are likely right on the idea but has been the case all winter they likely are 7-10 days too fast on the whole thing.  After 2/10 and especially 2/15 it probably becomes to come apart.

[MJO812]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Kind of what my thoughts have been the last week.  I said I like next week possibly for something but then I think 1/24-2/1 or so its SE/MA thing and then 2/1-2/10 is when another window opens here.  I am not buying the breakdown at the end of ensembles yet.   They are likely right on the idea but has been the case all winter they likely are 7-10 days too fast on the whole thing.  After 2/10 and especially 2/15 it probably becomes to come apart.

Gfs and cmc are further south with all the storms due to the PV crushing the storms.

[ORH_wxman]

We’re gonna have lake ice about a foot thick 10 days from now. 

[Torch Tiger]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Kind of what my thoughts have been the last week.  I said I like next week possibly for something but then I think 1/24-2/1 or so its SE/MA thing and then 2/1-2/10 is when another window opens here.  I am not buying the breakdown at the end of ensembles yet.   They are likely right on the idea but has been the case all winter they likely are 7-10 days too fast on the whole thing.  After 2/10 and especially 2/15 it probably becomes to come apart.

Agree on that....+TNH should linger through week 1 of February, then we watch the strat.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re gonna have lake ice about a foot thick 10 days from now. 

actual pick up trucks parked out there

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Where would you go?

S Wey

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

S Wey

Any houses for sale in your hood?

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

That run was nuts lol 

The best it will look.  (He as walking about GFS 6z.  Funs over on 12z)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re gonna have lake ice about a foot thick 10 days from now. 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re gonna have lake ice about a foot thick 10 days from now. 

i wonder if we'll see cove and harbor slabs

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re gonna have lake ice about a foot thick 10 days from now. 

We just got ice-in declared on Lake Winni Tuesday. Earliest since 2018. 

[Torch Tiger]

we're officially over the hump- met winter is half over!

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

we're officially over the hump- met winter is half over!

is everyone at lest half their seasonal snow totals then ?

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

we're officially over the hump- met winter is half over!

Horrible 

[dendrite]

We reach climo min temps in another few days to a week depending on proximity to water. December felt long to me, but I will say that I blinked and it’s now the 2nd half of Jan.

Tomorrow’s 12z GFS at 384hr will be the first Phil prog. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

is everyone at lest half their seasonal snow totals then ?

Our snowfall climo halfway point is something like 1/31-2/2 depending on which set of normals you use. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

is everyone at lest half their seasonal snow totals then ?

I'm like legit 1/8th.

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re gonna have lake ice about a foot thick 10 days from now. 

we hope and pray
 

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We just got ice-in declared on Lake Winni Tuesday. Earliest since 2018. 

Not yet on Lake George but going to be next few days

[NoCORH4L]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re gonna have lake ice about a foot thick 10 days from now. 

Already 11" in N ORH, even with the warm up

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Already 11" in N ORH, even with the warm up

Yeah the ponds around here couldn’t really come close to losing their ice even though we spent like 48-60 hours above freezing. It was pretty thick going into that warm up. Also helps that we didn’t have massive dews and warm rain with it. Now it’s just gonna get crazy thick with this temperature look over the next 10-12 days. 

[ORH_wxman]

At least we get -40 at 850 showing up next week on Euro over MN. 

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least we get -40 at 850 showing up next week on Euro over MN. 

That’s one way to bring down the temperature in Minneapolis

[dendrite]

-45°

We can always go lower

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

-45°

We can always go lower

Let’s beat the 1996 record. 
 

I remember following that entire cold outbreak on TWC back then.  It was Embarrass, MN that hit -64. The NWS didn’t recognize that officially though. Tower hit -60 for the official record.