January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Looking at 6z EC AIFS - I don’t like it….

The early mid level cut-off in northern stream is another red flag. You’re going to get much more shunting east with the coastal than meridional mid level ridge development can compensate for  over the western Atlantic.

Maybe a cape scrape?

 

I’m focusing on the 18th… 

I see what you mean on the euro AI. But just 12 hrs ago that was a fropa on that model. 

[CoastalWx]

Also I think most people aren’t suggesting a big dog at the moment. 

[ineedsnow]

12z HRRR has a bit of snow here Saturday night 

[ineedsnow]

still going after hr 48.. it would be nice to get a couple inch refresher

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Also I think most people aren’t suggesting a big dog at the moment. 

I’m just talking widespread warning level snow. Thats what my odds are against. …

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

still going after hr 48.. it would be nice to get a couple inch refresher

Good luck with that.   HRRR has been a pile of poop lately

[HoarfrostHubb]

Our daughter’s view at work today. Rode the snowmobile to the summit.  Operating the top shack of their brand new 6 pack

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol by the time I get to the map its bedtime j/k

My storm forecasts aren't actually long...it's only the seasonal outlook.

[weatherwiz]

Well was using this weekend as a guide of "making or breaking" for next week and last nights runs certainly at least kept the intrigue alive. While the likelihood for that initial wave is decreasing, we may be slowly improving the potential for that follow up wave ~16th. One thing to watch too is models being a bit too aggressive with shunting the baroclinic zone too far south and east. Still seems like forever to to but we wanted something to track and we got it

[dryslot]

58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a 3rd s/w that appears would phase in on that run…that GL one is potent and diving in quickly. Someone run the dgex off this so we can see what happens. 

I just looked at it, This was at 40/70,

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I just looked at it, This was at 40/70,

Yea, I think seeing Brian loop that convinced me it would have ended well...not that it matters.

[ORH_wxman]

46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not sure I agree. I think it’s in the process of tilting neg quickly. Did you loop it? I mean, I don’t doubt that it may end up a salad of interfering shit streaks, but I thought this run was ready to blow up.

I agree. I’d think that would produce something. It could be of those systems that takes a wide left turn but really comes back N and slams New England if you time the neg tilt correctly. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

20.5° here

There’s some decent rime on the trees (for our standards)

I just checked my cam and my arbors have some rime as well from the fog.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think seeing Brian loop that convinced me it would have ended well...not that it matters.

It doesn't yet, But i'm thinking more that this upcoming period is going to work out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree. I’d think that would produce something. It could be of those systems that takes a wide left turn but really comes back N and slams New England if you time the neg tilt correctly. 

That looked like a Miller B-East job to me.

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not sure I agree. I think it’s in the process of tilting neg quickly. Did you loop it? I mean, I don’t doubt that it may end up a salad of interfering shit streaks, but I thought this run was ready to blow up.

ah yeah. no did not loop it.   I was in fact knee jerk reacting to that as a scalar "nice looking set up".  Which if we didn't know the history, I would still argue that doesn't look that good.  

However, upon knowing/looping, yeah we can see that the wind barbs along and off the EC are pivoting toward more SW from W/WSW direction.. That's some slowing of the progressive aspect; probably going to be enough to allow that WI knife to 'catch up'.  

Still don't like the QUE position up there but probably what happens is there's a potent result with a very sharp N deform axis type deal

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

It doesn't yet, But i'm thinking more that this upcoming period is going to work out.

Gonna look at everything this weekend and probably write something up.....maybe also urinate a snowflake onto a napkin for Steve to understand.

[ORH_wxman]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro verbatim is another 36-48 hrs after that depiction. Airmass is much better then.

Yeah as the storm intensifies offshore, it pulls in that arctic airmass…that high is moving E at the same time. I honestly have no idea if we even get a storm, but assuming we got something semi-depicted, it could be one of those systems that starts as pure paste (or even mixed/rain on coastal plain) and then it advects in much colder air as it gets drawn into the CCB. The biggest big dog in Mar ‘18 kind of did that. First few inches were like spackle here and then we ended up with 2 feet, the latter 20” was mostly pure powder as temps plummeted in the CCB. 
 

At this point, I’d take just a minimal warning event and I’d consider that a huge win if we somehow squeezed out that type of event next Friday. 

[jbenedet]

NAM laughably too cold for surface temps today…

These clouds are breaking… widespread mid 40’s easy and 50 within reach at many spots in SNE.

[ORH_wxman]

The weekend system also kind of sneakily morphed into a pretty low QPF event. Almost that shredded SWFE look on the precip. The bulk of the WCB misses to our east and the CCB is way back up in eastern Ontario/western Quebec. Leaves us kind of in a dead zone of forcing in between the two. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

NAM laughably too cold for surface temps today…

These clouds are breaking… widespread mid 40’s easy and 50 within reach at many spots in SNE.

 

It's going to be an interesting challenge for the feeble early January sun.  50 is a 32 F recovery for a lot of these locales around here.   Easier done even a month from now. 

 

[jbenedet]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 

It's going to be an interesting challenge for the feeble early January sun.  50 is a 32 F recovery for a lot of these locales around here.   Easily done even a month from now.  

 

Agreed on the sun. But atmosphere is cooked just above the surface.

 

[mahk_webstah]

With the systems in a medium to long range me it’s not about what it looks like. In a particular moment in time it’s more about the way things are trending. It seems like it’s trending in a gooddirection, but of course that may not continue. But I think we’re gonna get some snow storms in the next few weeks just based on both the availability, cold air and what models seem to be signaling as a more active storm track.

[dryslot]

Was colder then the county this morning here.

782
ASUS41 KGYX 091110
RWRGYX
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
600 AM EST FRI JAN 09 2026

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
 REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

MEZ002-005-006-010-012-015-018-020-021-024-026-027-029-091200-
MAINE

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND       CLEAR     20  19  96 CALM      30.33S
SANFORD*       CLEAR     14  11  87 CALM      30.31F
BAR HARBOR     CLEAR     23  21  92 CALM      30.36R
WISCASSET      CLEAR     19  15  84 CALM      30.34F
ROCKLAND*      CLEAR     20  19  96 CALM        N/A
FRYEBURG       CLOUDY    11   7  84 CALM      30.30F
LEWISTONAUBURN CLEAR     14  12  92 CALM      30.32S
AUGUSTA        CLEAR     22  19  89 SE3       30.31F
WATERVILLE*    CLEAR     18  16  93 CALM      30.29F FOG
BANGOR         CLEAR     17  16  95 CALM      30.34R
GREENVILLE       N/A     26  25  96 SE5       30.21R
MILLINOCKET    CLOUDY    30  25  81 CALM      30.30S
HOULTON        CLOUDY    29  25  85 CALM      30.26F
PRESQUE ISLE   CLOUDY    29  26  89 S6        30.26F
FRENCHVILLE    CLOUDY    27  24  89 S7        30.20S
CARIBOU        CLOUDY    28  25  88 SW5       30.24S
$$

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well he's not wrong it is a pack melting 38-48 degrees the next 5-6 days for all of SNE .. already lost 75% of my solid 6" pack.. but if we can cash in on that epic look starting next Thursday who cares, it's a welcome melt off and clean up.. 

 

No doubt, bare ground is in store for SNE.  Different story for CNE and NNE as they have more snow and it will remain both cooler and snowier.  As one would expect.

33 already in PVD vs. 27 at Pit2.

Off to rake more leaves.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah as the storm intensifies offshore, it pulls in that arctic airmass…that high is moving E at the same time. I honestly have no idea if we even get a storm, but assuming we got something semi-depicted, it could be one of those systems that starts as pure paste (or even mixed/rain on coastal plain) and then it advects in much colder air as it gets drawn into the CCB. The biggest big dog in Mar ‘18 kind of did that. First few inches were like spackle here and then we ended up with 2 feet, the latter 20” was mostly pure powder as temps plummeted in the CCB. 
 

At this point, I’d take just a minimal warning event and I’d consider that a huge win if we somehow squeezed out that type of event next Friday. 

Yeah I’m not greedy. Just something other than 1-3” of fluff. 
 

Feb 16 did that here. Was paste for awhile and finally dropped below 30 second half. Even had some tree damage in that. 
 

6z gfs was similar to what you said. Mixed here going to snow. Temp drops on NE winds like the days of yore. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Agreed on the sun. But atmosphere is cooked just above the surface.

 

yeah, no question there. 

you know there's a chance we could mix some.  the NAM's grid has mid BL winds over 20 kts from the SW at 18z.  might just get it done

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, no question there. 

you know there's a chance we could mix some.  the NAM's grid has mid BL winds over 20 kts from the SW at 18z.  might just get it done

Good point.

To be sure I’m thinking most commonly 43-45 readings, for the region.

a solid +10 today

Dews will also be rising all day so it will compound the real feel. Legit warmth on this merit as well…

 

Gotta get outside…

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree. I’d think that would produce something. It could be of those systems that takes a wide left turn but really comes back N and slams New England if you time the neg tilt correctly. 

GFS' recent runs hinting at that ...

My only point before is that there's wave interference that is negative.   That trough totality, albeit containing some potent embedded S/W at beta scales, is in fact positively tilted.  

The QUE vortex up there is in bad spot climo and physics-wise.  These aren't really disputable. 

But he brought up a good point about looping and seeing the history, and the wind barbs are turning more S along and off-shore, so that's indicative of slowing - or having the ability to do so - the progressive nature overall.   The WI dive probably catches, and then the phase ends up potency has enough -  your "hook and latter" low fits that.

But ... shit this can all change of course.   it's fun to jockey the model runs LOL

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would bet anyone, any amount of money the monkey is long gone by February 1.

 

When someone offers you 10,000 to 1 odds on ANYTHING, you take it.