Lava Rock Posted yesterday at 01:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:25 PM 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I basically have two jobs. I’m in my key earning years. I love snowboarding, ice hockey and snow mobiling but I don’t live right in the mountains/country where it’s directly accessible. I’m here because I want those things *close*. Otherwise the weather that supports this stuff just makes life harder. Especially for my dog. understood and i feel mostly the same. wish we lived closer to the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM 13-14-15 is still on the table. Altho probably favors the latter end of that range if there's going to be an event. Obviously we have nuisance to lower level advisory issues in the nearer terms, but writing in terms of more broadly supportive for canonical events, which is beyond these foreground concerns. The 00z EPS/GEPs/ and even the typically hesitant GEFs still attempting amplitude along the OH-MA with +PNA arrival. Typical to find events during spatial-temporal reordering of the super synopsis, which this chart above lands on one of those times. The ridge in the west in this rendering may appear a bit less than ideal ( W bias)? That's true, however, this GEFs mean is the most W of the three ens. It's also retrograding W and didn't start out there. Beyond this ... ~ the 15th-18th, the hemisphere gets interesting. That +PNA lending to a bit of an H.A. signal appears slated to be a transient index state as it soon de-amplifies. However, changes in the forcing scheme upstream across the expanse of the Pacific lends to an original and new -EPO approaching the 20th. Quite amplified as of last night's means, too. No clue from this range what that will mean, but odds hugely sloped in favor a cold N/A loading period. Not a warm last 10 days of the month given the previous week's arrival into these 300+ hr mean structures... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 01:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:47 PM I'll sell any big coastal mid-month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted yesterday at 01:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:50 PM DT is honking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 01:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:51 PM Just now, mahk_webstah said: DT is honking He has some bizarre preoccupation with ENSO events ending early....always hammers that every year and it never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted yesterday at 01:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:53 PM 22 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: understood and i feel mostly the same. wish we lived closer to the good stuff. For me, it's all about having seasons. Outside of a non-existent spring, the Midcoast region gets it done. True winter, typical fall, and tempered summer. Mattapoisett wins for the summer, but the spring is still crappy and winter is more of an idea than an actual thing. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 01:58 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:58 PM Repetitive WWBs are pretty damming, nonetheless Also, recently the MJO desk has cited comments that the NINA atmosphere appeared to be contained just to the immediate region around the Equatorial band - which in a large spatial sense implies it is largely decoupled from the hemisphere. SO, WWBs ... decoupled states ? I dunno. Sounds a little like it's dead before it hits the floor. Suppose that is true ... all it really means is that ENSO is less useful from here on out.. because "decoupled" is what happens when you ain't geddin any 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted yesterday at 02:06 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:06 PM GFS, NAM, and HRRR (plus the Euro to a lesser extent) keeps tonight's weather all snow,ice , or freeing rain for my area... tomorrow morning's drive might suck. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:06 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:06 PM 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Repetitive WWBs are pretty damming, nonetheless Also, recently the MJO desk has cited comments that the NINA atmosphere appeared to be contained just to the immediate region around the Equatorial band - which in a large spatial sense implies it is largely decoupled from the hemisphere. SO, WWBs ... decoupled states ? I dunno. Sounds a little like it's dead before it hits the floor. Suppose that is true ... all it really means is that ENSO is less useful from here on out.. because "decoupled" is what happens when you ain't geddin any Well, only if you went with a generic, boiler-plate-ENSO forecast....really immaterial AFAIC because I did not....that said, the RONI and MEI are still down there, so that would give me pause before summarily declaring it dead. That said, the sensible weather moving forward probably won't hurt your argument if you want to claim that...but I would argue the inverse of what you say when we have ENSO congruent sensible weather by chance, despite your argument that it really isn't coupled or the "driving force" per se. Assuming it is dead, people like to conveniently dismiss the notion of a lag, too....it doesn't just "shut off"...but this event was fairly weak, anyway....which is part of the reason I didn't go very warm in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted yesterday at 02:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:25 PM 19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: GFS, NAM, and HRRR (plus the Euro to a lesser extent) keeps tonight's weather all snow,ice , or freeing rain for my area... tomorrow morning's drive might suck. Widespread cancellations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted yesterday at 02:26 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:26 PM 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: GFS, NAM, and HRRR (plus the Euro to a lesser extent) keeps tonight's weather all snow,ice , or freeing rain for my area... tomorrow morning's drive might suck. No school if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 02:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:28 PM 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, only if you went with a generic, boiler-plate-ENSO forecast....really immaterial AFAIC because I did not....that said, the RONI and MEI are still down there, so that would give me pause before summarily declaring it dead. That said, the sensible weather moving forward probably won't hurt your argument if you want to claim that...but I would argue the inverse of what you say when we have ENSO congruent sensible weather by chance, despite your argument that it really isn't coupled or the "driving force" per se. Assuming it is dead, people like to conveniently dismiss the notion of a lag, too....it doesn't just "shut off"...but this event was fairly weak, anyway....which is part of the reason I didn't go very warm in February. mmm... in this case, not sure agree. peppeRONI or not, the pizza isn't getting cooked with ENSO if it is decoupled. RONI does not mean there's some presence when the ENSO is decoupled. It means the coupled state is augmented and really shares a quasi state. That weird N. Pac thing that lasted 4.5 weeks or whatever eternity that was ... didn't strike me as either to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mmm... in this case, not sure agree. peppeRONI or not, the pizza isn't getting cooked with ENSO if it is decoupled. RONI does not mean there's some presence when the ENSO is decoupled. It means the coupled state is augmented and really shares a quasi state. MEI does....and like I said, assuming it is dead, there is a reason that the ONI encompasses a tri-monthly period. I understand you are dug in on this given your thoughts on CC....I get it. We don't always have to agree on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:32 PM 26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: GFS, NAM, and HRRR (plus the Euro to a lesser extent) keeps tonight's weather all snow,ice , or freeing rain for my area... tomorrow morning's drive might suck. I hope it's plain rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope it's plain rain here. It won’t be. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:34 PM You and Tip can argue semantics, but I like my winters to last through all of Feb-which just happens to be our snowiest month here in SNE, so I hope that happens, whether Niña is dead or not lol. So Let’s rock this upcoming peak climo this year. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:35 PM 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It won’t be. Ice all night? I'll believe that when I see it....if it is, it will probably be a situation where it accretes on surfaces that no one cares about, like mailboxes.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 02:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:35 PM 29 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: GFS, NAM, and HRRR (plus the Euro to a lesser extent) keeps tonight's weather all snow,ice , or freeing rain for my area... tomorrow morning's drive might suck. some said that wouldn't happen a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: You and Tip can argue semantics, but I like my winters to last through all of Feb-which just happens to be our snowiest month here in SNE, so I hope that happens, whether Niña is dead or not lol. So Let’s rock this upcoming peak climo this year. I agree with John that this is unlikely to be a La Nina like late season...we can leave it at that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM Just now, ineedsnow said: some said that wouldn't happen a few days ago Go with the tenor… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Its still 32.7° here. Theres no way northern MA goes above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM I also don't think this particular La Nina is a good specimen to test these theories because it's never been particularly robust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ice all night? I'll believe that when I see it....if if it, it will probably be a situation where it accretes on surfaces that no one cares about, like mailboxes.... You are really close to the snow line too early on so I don’t think it will just be ZR. Prob some sleet and perhaps mangled flakes mixed in. Basically a potpourri of crap. It’s not a lot of QPF but obviously even a little ZR makes things ugly. And yeah, roads will be fine as long as they are treated. Sidewalks might be another story. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: MEI does....and like I said, assuming it is dead, there is a reason that the ONI encompasses a tri-monthly period. I understand you are dug in on this given your thoughts on CC....I get it. We don't always have to agree on everything. what? my thoughts are pure logic dude - at the moment anyway... nah, CC has nothing to do with why I cited MJO desk, and these other facts in present company and stream. lol, not sure we're even disagreeing on much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Go with the tenor… I'm still mostly in bed with the flu.. today seems better though.. this is the one time I wish it was warm out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: You are really close to the snow line too early on so I don’t think it will just be ZR. Prob some sleet and perhaps mangled flakes mixed in. Basically a potpourri of crap. It’s not a lot of QPF but obviously even a little ZR makes things ugly. And yeah, roads will be fine as long as they are treated. Sidewalks might be another story. Yea, I could see that...I have not, and won't even look at this...just try not to have it be a PIA. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: what? my thoughts are pure logic dude - at the moment anyway... nah, CC HAS nothing to do with why I cited MJO desk, and these other facts in present company and stream I know not in this case, per se....I get it...neutral MJO. But you do have a proclivity to minor ENSO at baseline given your stance on CC. JMHO.....if you don't think so, we can respectfully leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You are really close to the snow line too early on so I don’t think it will just be ZR. Prob some sleet and perhaps mangled flakes mixed in. Basically a potpourri of crap. It’s not a lot of QPF but obviously even a little ZR makes things ugly. And yeah, roads will be fine as long as they are treated. Sidewalks might be another story. There's been these funny memes on Instagram where Shmuck steps out oblvious and with a cup of coffee and ends up looking like George Jetson ... seems like a good morning for Funniest Home Video ops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM 6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Its still 32.7° here. Theres no way northern MA goes above freezing. The fact Logan airport is currently 26F with a light northerly drain is more than enough evidence that this lower level airmass isn’t going anywhere quickly. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:44 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:44 PM Just now, ORH_wxman said: The fact Logan airport is 26F with a light northerly drain is more than enough evidence that this lower level airmass isn’t going anywhere quickly. Yikes, I'd agree. 24.8 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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