January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Kitz Craver]

Some meaty storms starting to show up on op’s

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Op gfs? Sell 

This has CAD look written all over it. Look up in Quebec 

32* in Quebec City doesn't suggest CAD.  

Just posting the map.....not saying it will play out.

Rains to the Quebecois.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

32* in Quebec City doesn't suggest CAD.  

Just posting the map.....not saying it will play out.

That HP up there certainly does. Even the Wednesday event has mesolow which keeps most cold . The weekend will rain but it won’t be a screamer or mild rain north of about Philly 

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Some meaty storms starting to show up on op’s

 

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That HP up there certainly does. Even the Wednesday event has mesolow which keeps most cold . The weekend will rain but it won’t be a screamer or mild rain north of about Philly 

What difference does it make if it's a 38° rain or 46° rain? It's effing rain

[Damage In Tolland]

Makes little difference other than MPM expecting 50’s/ 60’s for New England. Without a screamer that’s very hard to do in January especially with the WBN SST’s to the south 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Makes little difference other than MPM expecting 50’s/ 60’s for New England. Without a screamer that’s very hard to do in January especially with the WBN SST’s to the south 

I will say that 50's will show up in southern new england.  Gun to the head, I'll say they'll be fairly widespread.

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Makes little difference other than MPM expecting 50’s/ 60’s for New England. Without a screamer that’s very hard to do in January especially with the WBN SST’s to the south 

I hadn’t looked since tropical season but these are some of the coldest anomalies in the Atlantic according to TT. Pretty significant reversal from the big positive anomaly in October. Maybe that’s a function of depth?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I hadn’t looked since tropical season but these are some of the coldest anomalies in the Atlantic according to TT. Pretty significant reversal from the big positive anomaly in October. Maybe that’s a function of depth?

 

This cold fall /winter has done a number . It’s also going to force baroclinic zone south . With no screamer and strong winds  it’s Virtually impossible to get into the 50’s other than far SE Mass . 

[dendrite]

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Op gfs? Sell 

This has CAD look written all over it. Look up in Quebec 

45° in Sherbrooke. Looks brutal

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

45° in Sherbrooke. Looks brutal

You don’t get it if you think they look warm sectors New England 

[dendrite]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Soak it in.

Gladly take it....this pattern has made me nauseous...cold and windy and a steady dose of 1/4" clippers. Wipe that shit out.

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t get it if you think they look warm sectors New England 

I probaby stay socked in. I’d probably lean likely that you sector for some period. But it’s 6 days out so we’ll see. 

[dendrite]

Hopefully that water stays 3C BN right through spring too. Let’s slam some screen doors SOP. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I probaby stay socked in. I’d probably lean likely that you sector for some period. But it’s 6 days out so we’ll see. 

Think back to last week when models had 40’s up there and MHT struggled above 32. It’ll likely be same kind of deal unless that parent low really ramps up much more than modeled . Need strong SE winds for that to happen 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We should get a window for a bigger strike in early March.

@NoCORH4LI expect a big stratosphere disruption in early to mid February. Take a look at March 2023, 2018 and 2001...

[TripplePhaser]

Hmmm...

[my apologies for the format.]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, TripplePhaser said:

Hmmm...

[my apologies for the format.]

 

That about sums it up-

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TripplePhaser said:

Hmmm...

[my apologies for the format.]

 

I prefer a +TNA pattern. 

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, TripplePhaser said:

Hmmm...

 

 

This AI Overview is provided courtesy of  partnership of AIGFS, ECMWF-AIFS, and Skynet.

[VivaManchVegas]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Soak it in.

Please for the love of all that is well and good... we need a few days break. I have dumped more salt on my driveway in the past 2 weeks as i have done in the past 2 years.  I have burnt more wood this year so far than all of last year.   I am glad the Ice damns have been minor to point but I can't wait for the melt rings around trees to start in the next few weeks. I like snow but the last 5 weeks have been monotonous. 

[tunafish]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully that water stays 3C BN right through spring too. Let’s slam some screen doors SOP. 

You can run but you can't hide from that nasty, nasty Atlantic. 

[Boston Bulldog]

19 minutes ago, TripplePhaser said:

Hmmm...

[my apologies for the format.]

 

My advisor from graduate school has a fantastic visualizer of the seasonal cycle of the MJO its associated rossby wave patterns. Very easy to see the troughing over the eastern CONUS in Phase 7 out to day 30: 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

My advisor from graduate school has a fantastic visualizer of the seasonal cycle of the MJO its associated rossby wave patterns. Very easy to see the troughing over the eastern CONUS in Phase 7 out to day 30: 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

He’s crazy lol. He stopped by where I used to work with Mike Ventrice and he was super energetic lol. Obviously a brilliant guy. 

[Boston Bulldog]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s crazy lol. He stopped by where I used to work with Mike Ventrice and he was super energetic lol. Obviously a brilliant guy. 

Paul operates on a different level than most. Was lucky enough to lead write a couple papers in collaboration with him... let's be honest the concept and research was fully driven by his vision. Come in with a question, and he'd counter back with ideas bouncing off the walls and 5 PhD disseration level questions

[Damage In Tolland]

Light snow falling . 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

I will say that 50's will show up in southern new england.  Gun to the head, I'll say they'll be fairly widespread.

Yeah next weekend is looking quite warm. Probably close to 60 in NYC and 60s to 65 or so from Philly to DC. Rain or not, very warm 

[SJonesWX]

14 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah next weekend is looking quite warm. Probably close to 60 in NYC and 60s to 65 or so from Philly to DC. Rain or not, very warm 

This is the New England forum. most of us don’t give a shit about the mid Atlantic 

[moneypitmike]

People are on edge......