Snowcrazed71 Posted Saturday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:40 PM Northeast Weather Alert Over the past couple of months we’ve seen the trade winds steadily weaken, and at times even flip to brief westerlies as persistent convection has taken hold across the Pacific. That’s helped kick off a down-welling Kelvin Wave, which is forcing the subsurface warm pool to rise and slide east. In plain terms La Niña is fading right now, and the background state is already trending toward a developing +ENSO pattern as we move forward. With all due respect La Niña is effectively gone, even though it may still technically linger in the ocean for a short time on paper. The atmosphere has already begun shifting away from a true La Niña base state. I’m going to hold steady on my position, because no matter who you are in this field, you can’t ignore what’s right in front of you. I don’t flip back and forth with every single model run, I filter out the noise. Even in a field full of weeds, there are still solid tomatoes growing on the vine… you just have to know where and how to look for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Saturday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:42 PM 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS AIfS definitely seem to bring back a weenie pattern quicker. Like 12-13 or so. WTTTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Saturday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:48 PM Maybe an inch here Monday afternoon, 2 to 4 Tuesday night and Wednesday with 3 to 6 a real possibility, then a Friday Saturday rain or maybe mixed system. Then next week we’re rocking and rolling. Our rock solid pack isn’t going anywhere, but hopefully Friday and Saturday will clear the ice off the driveway. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:52 PM 10 minutes ago, binbisso said: Gefs has it by the 11th. I have to agree with others that the warm ups in the extended have become muted as we get closer since late November. Some of us did say this the middle of the last week, when we saw the bigger looking warm up being shown initially, that as we closed in, there was a decent chance that it would get muted, based on the tenor of this season so far. That looks to be the case here again. A thaw yes. An all Out banana hammocks and parakeets set up…,not even close. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Saturday at 06:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:59 PM 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Some of us did say this the middle of the last week, when we saw the bigger looking warm up being shown initially, that as we closed in, there was a decent chance that it would get muted, based on the tenor of this season so far. That looks to be the case here again. A thaw yes. An all Out banana hammocks and parakeets set up…,not even close. Euro does try to get parakeets south of the pike next Saturday…near 60F. But it is for one day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:00 PM 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro does try to get parakeets south of the pike next Saturday…near 60F. But it is for one day. But that’s with the cutter no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted Saturday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:01 PM 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Some of us did say this the middle of the last week, when we saw the bigger looking warm up being shown initially, that as we closed in, there was a decent chance that it would get muted, based on the tenor of this season so far. That looks to be the case here again. A thaw yes. An all Out banana hammocks and parakeets set up…,not even close. Yea we are averaging 6 degrees below normal here and continuing the next 4 days. That's approximately 38days at -6. When was the last time that happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Saturday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:01 PM 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Some of us did say this the middle of the last week, when we saw the bigger looking warm up being shown initially, that as we closed in, there was a decent chance that it would get muted, based on the tenor of this season so far. That looks to be the case here again. A thaw yes. An all Out banana hammocks and parakeets set up…,not even close. What I don't get is there are a select few that like to " feed the fire " and get off on hoping the pattern turns warm. They really get off on twisting the knife. Well.. the good news is most of us know that it's just noise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Saturday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:03 PM 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: But that’s with the cutter no? Yeah south of pike is clean warm sectored with no precip on that run so there would be temps tickling 60+ if that happened. But there’s a boundary very close by…like near 40F around Ray’s area to near BOS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Saturday at 07:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:06 PM 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah south of pike is clean warm sectored with no precip on that run so there would be temps tickling 60+ if that happened. But there’s a boundary very close by…like near 40F around Ray’s area to near BOS. We know how every single one of those has gone since September. It’s shown that scenario countless times only to turn into cold rain or even wintry at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 07:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:09 PM 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: What I don't get is there are a select few that like to " feed the fire " and get off on hoping the pattern turns warm. They really get off on twisting the knife. Well.. the good news is most of us know that it's just noise. Yup. That’s what I can’t stand. But whatever. A thaw is coming for a few days..and we’ll take it. Then back to a much more wintry set up that looks to take hold pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 07:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:12 PM 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Some of us did say this the middle of the last week, when we saw the bigger looking warm up being shown initially, that as we closed in, there was a decent chance that it would get muted, based on the tenor of this season so far. That looks to be the case here again. A thaw yes. An all Out banana hammocks and parakeets set up…,not even close. But nobody claimed days of parakeets. It’s just a crap pattern. If it’s 40 and rain, is that better than 60? To me it means the same. Crap pattern until something more conducive comes along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 07:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:12 PM 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: WTTTE I think I’ll stick to mid month as a safer bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:17 PM 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But nobody claimed days of parakeets. It’s just a crap pattern. If it’s 40 and rain, is that better than 60? To me it means the same. Crap pattern until something more conducive comes along. Not saying you did…but others were posting big bright pretty orange and red colors….showing 20 to 25+ degrees above normal. We just said that would probably mute as we close in, and indeed it has. I know it’s tough for you to ever give some of us non pros any credit, but I think we had the right idea on this one. Now Go have a painkiller(the tropical cocktail type, not the narcotic) …and enjoy! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:23 PM 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Not saying you did…but others were posting big bright pretty orange and red colors….showing 20 to 25+ degrees above normal. We just said that would probably mute as we close in, and indeed it has. I know it’s tough for you to ever give some of us non pros any credit, but I think we had the right idea on this one. Now Go have a painkiller…and enjoy! We still could easily pop some big departures. It’s not an issue with giving credit, in the big picture it still looks lousy and many likely lose it all. I guess I don’t see anything really wintry looking for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:27 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: We still could easily pop some big departures. It’s not an issue with giving credit, in the big picture it still looks lousy and many likely lose it all. I guess I don’t see anything really wintry looking for awhile. Fair enough. And I’m not worried about losing my pack. I have no issues with a thaw…in fact it will feel pretty nice, after the long hard freeze that we’ve had. And then Pattern looks much better soon after. It’s all good. Getting ready for a sled trip in a couple weeks…far NNE should/and look to avoid any real melting..which is good news for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Saturday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:27 PM CT neurotics need reassurance. Everything is going to be OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Saturday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:29 PM The warm stretch isn’t even here and people are spiking footballs when we still really don’t know. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:33 PM 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: The warm stretch isn’t even here and people are spiking footballs when we still really don’t know. Not spiking anything. Just saying that it doesn’t look as intense as it did earlier on. It’s been the tenor so far. But I guess we’ll see. Let’s melt and wash up the roads…I’m good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Saturday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:36 PM 8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: CT neurotics need reassurance. Everything is going to be OK Snowflakes. The mear mention of a warm up and they melt. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: The warm stretch isn’t even here and people are spiking footballs when we still really don’t know. Yeah there’s still a chance this warm sectors to Canadian border and we’re parakeets for a couple days. But the trend has def been to mute this and increase the CAD recently. I don’t think this debate matters that much in the scheme of things. It’s really just going to mean a number on the departure chart. I suppose it helps the ski areas to lessen the torch a bit. But for the majority, it doesn’t matter. It does seem to sweep past that pattern fairly quickly though. The wholesale PAC changes are inside D10 now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM 37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But that’s with the cutter no? What difference does it make? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:44 PM 6 minutes ago, kdxken said: Snowflakes. The mear mention of a warm up and they melt. Who the fuck is melting? Nobody is melting. And Tiger torch…you can STFU you fruitcake. You’re nothing but a POS spoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Saturday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:45 PM 43 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: What I don't get is there are a select few that like to " feed the fire " and get off on hoping the pattern turns warm. They really get off on twisting the knife. Well.. the good news is most of us know that it's just noise. Have a nice red map. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Saturday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:45 PM Just now, WinterWolf said: Who the fuck is melting? Nobody is melting. And Tiger torch…you can STFU you fruitcake. You’re nothing but a POS spoon. One for you too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:50 PM One day lol. As I said..let’s melt up and wash the roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM 10 minutes ago, kdxken said: Have a nice red map. You can keep trying fool. I like the colors though. Cool map! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM 10 minutes ago, kdxken said: Have a nice red map. Red rum...red rum...red rum 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM 58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And Tiger torch…you can STFU you fruitcake. You’re nothing but a POS spoon. He's just doing his typical... acting like a linguine, sounding like a clam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Saturday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:19 PM CT folks bargaining on keeping their snow through the warmer period. Usually it’s just Kevin but now it’s all of them. Snowcrazed throwing out insults like he’s a sage. I come to this thread in part to chuckle. Personally the warmer days should help us reset for a MUCH better pattern mid month on. It should be fun with real threats the 2nd half of January into early February vs the cold and occasional minoring out moisture starved clipper. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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