January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models have a colder pattern by the 12th.

Could even get delayed a bit, but will happen...

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today is the 32nd consecutive day on which the PNA is < 0. Despite the EPS and GEFS currently showing only a brief turn to positive, the historic evidence since 1980 suggests that a regime change to an extended period of a predominantly positive PNA is likely once the current stretch of PNA- concludes. Until one is in the short-range of the teleconnection forecasts, the base case remains a regime shift in the PNA, not a temporary fluctuation to positive values. 

All 10 prior streaks of 30 or more consecutive days since 1980 ended with a regime change in the PNA.

Flip back to RNA in January is as fraudulent as Mark Moregarbage's met creds.

[203whiteout]

Solid snow pack left in SW CT. Even down to the coast. 100% coverage in Fairfield County. Got almost an inch NYE and then another half inch to an inch last night. Looks like it’s gone by mid to late week. SMH. It seems we are stuck in a multi year cycle of storms not coming through this area when the cold is here, but when it’s warm it rains, rains and rains. Epic Greenland blocks that go to waste, negative NAOs go to waste, cold air but very little precip. Very odd weather. Heard the 80s were very similar (I was born 1990). Yes, December was pretty cold and we have a little over a foot of snow this season so far but it’s been years since we’ve had a true nor’easter with totals over a foot plus (several years). Hopefully the mid month time frame works out. I can see a big storm happening followed by another warm up and a lot of rain in this type of set up this January.


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[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Do you have a neighbor with a snowmobile?  

Strongly strongly considering buying one. 

[Fozz]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Edge of my seat...

You should be. It’s a cool thing to see. Even if it isn’t a 16” snowstorm.

[mreaves]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Strongly strongly considering buying one. 

I saw the track in the pic and was wondering. 

[WxWatcher007]

51 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I saw the track in the pic and was wondering. 

I was on the rail trail up here. I’m not knowledgeable enough to know if the trails are in good condition but a lot of folks were out today, hikers and riders. 

[ineedsnow]

Overnight models really like Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning