January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

Although I will say there’s an overrunning risk so maybe we are on the right side.

[Spanks45]

6 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually I’m not frustrated here after the 8.5” dump back on Friday.  So I’m frustration free. 

In all honesty, it feels like we have had back to back wins here. The 8ish inch storm (2nd biggest in 4 years). Then despite the cutter/rain, still ended up with full snow coverage afterwards. Prior years, that would have been wiped out with only a brown glacier left behind...it actually looks and feels like winter, during winter, at least around here. The kids actually got to sled, when we got back yeaterday, I definitely did not think that was going to be possible after all the rain....now lets get some more next month

[Damage In Tolland]

Every time they’ve tried to warm up they reverse back to cold since the fall. Same thing will happen again 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

That ain’t even a torch for New England…all the best with that Ken. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every time they’ve tried to warm up they reverse back to cold since the fall. Same thing will happen again 

You’re certainly not wrong.  Love how the vacation guy weenies you for saying exactly what has happened every single time this autumn, and now early winter season.  

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re certainly not wrong.  Love how the vacation guy weenies you for saying exactly what has happened every single time this autumn, and now early winter season.  

This is different with no block and a SE ridge. 

[CoastalWx]

EPO tanks and we warm up before hopefully the cold spreads east. That’s called climo for these. 

[CoastalWx]

That’s what happened mid December which I mentioned earlier in December. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh to the overnight runs. Looks like we warm up after day 10 or so.

Hope it’s right. Tired of cold and cracked bare ground. Would love to sneak in some 50s and sun

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s what happened mid December which I mentioned earlier in December. 

It did. Very Short lived though. I feel this will be too. Anyway, go have fun in the sun, and stay off your phone. We’ll hold down the fort for you.  

[Cold Miser]

5” total for me will do it for December (and the season so far). 
 

Hoping for a good January.  

[Modfan2]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hope it’s right. Tired of cold and cracked bare ground. Would love to sneak in some 50s and sun

I would take 40 and sun at this point

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is different with no block and a SE ridge. 

There’s been no SE ridge all winter 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It did. Very Short lived though. I feel this will be too. Anyway, go have fun in the sun, and stay off your phone. We’ll hold down the fort for you.  

Yeah verbatim I don’t think it would be prolonged, just saying it looks to happen. Seems like a quiet 7 days coming up. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah verbatim I don’t think it would be prolonged, just saying it looks to happen. Seems like a quiet 7 days coming up. 

Snow tonight, snow Sunday night/ Monday and snow Jan 6. Wouldn’t call that quiet. You’ll miss a few snowfalls 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Snow tonight, snow Sunday night/ Monday and snow Jan 6. Wouldn’t call that quiet. You’ll miss a few snowfalls 

I’ll be fine missing an inch. Looks quiet to me.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll be fine missing an inch. Looks quiet to me.

Tonight’s is 2 -4 there . Another 2-4 Monday.. then we’ll see mid week . Hopefully you have a Ring so you can watch it vicariously 

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This time it’s more of a SE ridge vs the weird conus ridge dome. 

In their defense, the southern plains ridge started as a SE ridge in the distant LR as well before trending more west. Difference is, it seems the ens are trying to flush the cold in eastern Canada this time. I would roll with this…in the interior at least.

[ORH_wxman]

Monday doesn’t look that interesting unless northern stream digs a little more for a stronger IVT. Otherwise prob flurries or C-1”. 

[dendrite]

Maybe we risk some cutters, but I’m only interested in big ticket items.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Maybe we risk some cutters, but I’m only interested in big ticket items.

 I’ve had one double digit storm (and it was barely double digits) since Feb 2022. This truly feels like that 1988-1992 stretch except warmer (at least prior to last winter) and not quite as paltry on seasonal snow totals here…but close enough. 
 

Really could use a big storm to break the drought. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 I’ve had one double digit storm (and it was barely double digits) since Feb 2022. This truly feels like that 1988-1992 stretch except warmer (at least prior to last winter) and not quite as paltry on seasonal snow totals here…but close enough. 
 

Really could use a big storm to break the drought. 

Maybe an 8-14” Leon event visits?

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

In their defense, the southern plains ridge started as a SE ridge in the distant LR as well before trending more west. Difference is, it seems the ens are trying to flush the cold in eastern Canada this time. I would roll with this…in the interior at least.

To my untrained eye, That isn’t a bad look there.  I mean it is 14-15 days away, so we know the deal. But verbatim that looks pretty decent, and getting into peak climo.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

To my untrained eye, That isn’t a bad look there.  I mean it is 14-15 days away, so we know the deal. But verbatim that looks pretty decent, and getting into peak climo.  

Yea that’s after any warm up. That probably would work verbatim. However every time we have seen that something shits the bed. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yea that’s after any warm up. That probably would work verbatim. However every time we have seen that something shits the bed. 

Agreed.
 

And yes, when we do have/get 99% of the ingredients together, we can’t seem to get the oven turned on so to speak.  Like Will just said(and I’ve been saying it too) it’s very reminiscent of the mid to late 80’s-the early 90’s(92).  Nothing wants to gel(major that is)for our area lately.   Anyway, we roll the dice. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 I’ve had one double digit storm (and it was barely double digits) since Feb 2022. This truly feels like that 1988-1992 stretch except warmer (at least prior to last winter) and not quite as paltry on seasonal snow totals here…but close enough. 
 

Really could use a big storm to break the drought. 

January 28-29, 2022 was last 12”+ for me. Big dog.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yea that’s after any warm up. That probably would work verbatim. However every time we have seen that something shits the bed. 

I'm hopeful to keep some semblance of -NAO and stay seasonable while most of the country warms up .. Guidance trending better in at least some -NAO around that time after losing the block on steriods over Hudson Bay idea .. I can see us getting lucky again and limiting the torch to a cutter only before we get -EPO cold 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I'm hopeful to keep some semblance of -NAO and stay seasonable while most of the country warms up .. Guidance trending better in at least some -NAO around that time after losing the block on steriods over Hudson Bay idea .. I can see us getting lucky again and limiting the torch to a cutter only before we get -EPO cold 

Yes. I think we(New England) will escape any real warmth. 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

January 28-29, 2022 was last 12”+ for me. Big dog.

WOR was the have nots in that one…only ended up with about 8” here of arctic sand with that one. A disappointment for sure. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

In their defense, the southern plains ridge started as a SE ridge in the distant LR as well before trending more west. Difference is, it seems the ens are trying to flush the cold in eastern Canada this time. I would roll with this…in the interior at least.

Nah  the difference is that stubborn Date Line-ish -WPO hybrid stuck anomaly of the last 4 weeks is finally collapsing   

I explained all this yesterday, and at the risk of sounding like a dick ... it's right.    When that leaves, the hemisphere is/was open in the guidance to establish a new "anchor" pattern - however transient or perm, notwithstanding.   

For awhile ...it appeared the +PNA might emerge, but then over 2 days ... that redrafted into this bono fide -EPO we see in all ens systems. Vivid coherence, too.    

I agree with Scott, that implies a warm up ... purely from climate inference. The magnitude of which, notwithstanding either.  They can sometimes not manifest much N of 40 N ..for other popsicle headaches.  Sometimes they crazy and the polar boundary gets sucked back to Chicago and it's 62 degrees here.

However, highly correlated is a time lagged event whence cold starts to load into and eventually overcoming (or reinforcing either way) the native N/A circulation mode.  This induces a +PNA  'drag' on the pattern, which then that takes over. I've seen this all take anywhere from 3 to 10+ days for the wholesale evolution to complete.  

Sometimes it is not a one and done wholesale show. 2015 was an extreme example of the -EPO --> +PNA relay, where it was pulsating.   The EPO was negative for several weeks, and would dive additional 1.5 SD relative to the longer term bias; then recover, while the PNA would obey this time-lag and rise ...when it did, Logan put another 2 bits in the seasonal till.   It was a perfect cold loader machinery at large synoptic scales.  Other times it is all a more tepid and nuanced tale. Magnitude matters.  I've seen these attempt in early April and it doesn't work out to well because the sun's annihilating the lower troposphere by then.  etc.