January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

Time to ring in the new year with a new thread. December managed to produce an above average snowfall month for many. What does the new year bring? The patter looks active the first week with the potential for a clipper to start off and more larger synoptic scale events towards the end of the 1st week.

[WinterWolf]

Way to go Bob…let’s make it a Jammin January for SNE/New England. 

[Kitz Craver]

EURO and GFS both feature the NYD clippah. Let’s keep some pack going through the Rainer and start to stack it up! Lots of opportunity on modeling moving forward 

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty decent pattern as we go into early January. This is a 5 day mean from EPS….note how all the lower heights are now down south. Going to be more receptive to potential coastal storms

[Baroclinic Zone]

Upcoming cutter sort of sets the stage for our new years potential. Storm sets of confluence to our north not allowing system to cut west. I see it as a clipper right now unless the upcoming storm retrogrades fast enough to to allow heights to build ahead of clipper.

[ORH_wxman]

That’s not a particularly cold pattern shown with the lower heights over AK but it’s not a torch for us either because of NAO blocking. It’s occurring during a favorable climatological period too where the averages are already pretty cold. 
 

Weeklies have been rebuilding the WPO/EPO ridge after that though which would bring more reinforcing cold air if it verified. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation discussed in the ending pages of the prior monthly thread

In terms of standard confidence for this range?  above normal for +PNA related event(s).   Doesn't mean something can't break favorably prior to but from a holistic/all-inclusive field application the front and end of that time range above is the still blurry focus - which means we are free to move it some if needed. 

I'm not sure about events within the first week itself... That's a modulation time and yes ... events tend to happen when there's big mass-field modulations, but in this case it's gradual improvement of probability from the 1st to 7th ( as in lower to higher). It's almost like the previous pattern resists but then snaps all at once along that range.  We'll see how it goes

Beyond that's the entry into the weeklies which I find are less useful

[Henry's Weather]

I am in Paris from the 1st to the 9th, so I would bet on a major storm within that window…

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully we ravage when I come back on 1/7.

[Typhoon Tip]

And note the complete disappearance of the erstwhile N. Pac. .... emerging +PNA/W. N/A low amplitude height response;  may in fact be underdone as this is still an emerging signal. I suspect that to be case. 

[Damage In Tolland]

43 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

EURO and GFS both feature the NYD clippah. Let’s keep some pack going through the Rainer and start to stack it up! Lots of opportunity on modeling moving forward 

I know someone who  thinks 50 and rain Monday 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I know someone who  thinks 50 and rain Monday 

Yep 

[Damage In Tolland]

We all sell

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully we ravage when I come back on 1/7.

Where you going?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Where you going?

St John. Leaving the 31. Hopefully not missing much.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

St John. Leaving the 31. Hopefully not missing much.

Lock in big miller B for that 1/5-1/6 signal. 

[weatherwiz]

A lot to like about the pattern moving through January. Have to hope stuff times right but liking the signal for some coastal potential. 

[Kitz Craver]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know someone who  thinks 50 and rain Monday 

It’ll get up there, hopefully it doesn’t wipe this lovely pack out

[Go Kart Mozart]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

St John. Leaving the 31. Hopefully not missing much.

Ah, New Brunswick is beautiful this time of year.

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’ll get up there, hopefully it doesn’t wipe this lovely pack out

Hopefully the cold air is stubborn and we get a good glaze on top.

[SnowGoose69]

JB with yet another totally random X post lol.  He says only 5 Januarys since 75 with the MJO spending 23 or more days in the null phase.  All were quite cold in the East/MW/Plains.  80 82 96 00 03.  Problem with that post is who knows if the BOMM/EPS are possibly accurate out that far and only 1 of those 5 years comes close to our current ENSO (96)