January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[AdMC]

Less mosquitos this summer I guess?

[MJO812]

HRRR. BRRR.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, AdMC said:

Less mosquitos this summer I guess?

No, because the cold air is here with snow on the ground...acts like a warm blanket for them

[bluewave]

An icy New Haven Harbor today looking west from the Pardee Seawall Park.

 

[donsutherland1]

A fresh surge of Arctic air is moving into the region. Tonight and tomorrow night will likely see the temperature bottom out at their lowest levels this winter. Single digits are likely in Central Park. The last winter with more than one single-digit day was Winter 2022-23 when there were three such days. 

Highs will be mainly in the upper teens and lower 20s through Saturday. The last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate on Sunday into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least the start of next week.

Some light snow or flurries remains possible on Sunday if a developing storm passes close enough to the coast. This outcome is not assured. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England would have the greatest chance of seeing an accumulating snowfall. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +6.84 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.195 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Prue11]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A fresh surge of Arctic air is moving into the region. Tonight and tomorrow night will likely see the temperature bottom out at their lowest levels this winter. Single digits are likely in Central Park. The last winter with more than one single-digit day was Winter 2022-23 when there were three such days. 

Highs will be mainly in the upper teens and lower 20s through Saturday. The last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate on Sunday into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least the start of next week.

Some light snow or flurries remains possible on Sunday if a developing storm passes close enough to the coast. This outcome is not assured. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England would have the greatest chance of seeing an accumulating snowfall. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +6.84 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.195 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Don, do you know how many single digit readings have occurred at ISP this winter?

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Don, do you know how many single digit readings have occurred at ISP this winter?

So far, one. 

[nycsnow]

AIGFS has the 6th&11th storms 

[nycsnow]

Shaping up to be an awesome AIGFS and gfs run lot of snow chances 

[Stormlover74]

 

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Shaping up to be an awesome AIGFS and gfs run lot of snow chances 

Feb thread

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, AdMC said:

Less mosquitos this summer I guess?

Dunno.  They have killer mosquito swarms in the arctic, always have...

[Dark Star]

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A fresh surge of Arctic air is moving into the region. Tonight and tomorrow night will likely see the temperature bottom out at their lowest levels this winter. Single digits are likely in Central Park. The last winter with more than one single-digit day was Winter 2022-23 when there were three such days. 

Highs will be mainly in the upper teens and lower 20s through Saturday. The last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate on Sunday into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least the start of next week.

Some light snow or flurries remains possible on Sunday if a developing storm passes close enough to the coast. This outcome is not assured. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England would have the greatest chance of seeing an accumulating snowfall. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +6.84 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.195 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Wow,  -4.195 AO !!!!

[LAVistaNY]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

No, because the cold air is here with snow on the ground...acts like a warm blanket for them

Same for the ticks! Last winter was cold and less snowy and the ticks were brutal!

[donsutherland1]

Today is New York City's 7th consecutive day with a low < 20°. The last streak as long or longer than 7 days was during December 27, 2017-January 8, 2018 (13 days).

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Wow,  -4.195 AO !!!!

Yesterday was -4.873.

[SACRUS]

 

22 / 5 split today.  Colder tomorrow.  Weekend storm sleeps with the fishes.  Next up clipper Thu 2/4 -Fri 2/5. Overall cold continues a bit moderation next week perhaps to / above freezing Tue-wed-thu. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (2002)
NYC: 69 (2002)
LGA: 68 (2002)
JFK: 69 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1977)
NYC: 0 (1873)
LGA: 2 (1977)
JFK: 3 (1977)

Historical:

 

1780 - On the coldest morning of a severe winter the mercury dipped to 16 degrees below zero at New York City, and reached 20 degrees below zero at Hartford CT. New York Harbor was frozen for five weeks, allowing a heavy cannon to be taken across the ice to fortify the British on Staten Island. (The Weather Channel)

1921 - A small but intense windstorm resulted in the "Great Olympic Blowdown" in the Pacific Northwest. Hurricane force winds, funneled along the mountains, downed vast expanses of Douglas fir trees, and the storm destroyed eight billion board feet of timber. Winds at North Head WA gusted to 113 mph. (David Ludlum)

 

1921: A small but intense windstorm resulted in the "Great Olympic Blowdown" in the Pacific Northwest. Hurricane-force winds funneled along the mountains downed vast expanses of Douglas fir trees, and the storm destroyed eight billion board feet of timber. Winds at North Head, WA, gusted to 113 mph. On January 31, 1921, the International News Services reported from Aberdeen, Washington, "It is reported that thousands of dollars in damage was done to buildings and storms in Aberdeen and Hoquiam. The wind velocity was estimated at from 125 to 150 miles an hour. Four steel smokestacks reaching almost 200 feet into the air were the first to collapse before the terrific onslaught of the gale. The giant chimneys crashed down on dwellings crushing them like houses of cardboard."

 

1947: On this date through the 30th, a fierce winter storm buried southern Wisconsin under two feet of snow. Strong northeasterly winds piled drifts up to 10 feet high in the Milwaukee area, shutting down the city for two days.

1983 - A series of Pacific coast storms finally came to an end. The storms, attributed in part to the ocean current, "El Nino," produced ocean swells 15 to 20 feet high which ravaged the beaches of southern California. Much of the damage was to homes of movies stars in the exclusive Malibu Colony. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A strong storm moving out of the Central Rockies spread snow across the north central states, with up to eight inches of snow in Wisconsin, and produced wind gusts to 64 mph at Goodland KS. A thunderstorm produced three inches of snow in forty-five minutes at Owing Mills MD. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Rain and snow were primarily confined to the northwestern U.S. An afternoon reading of 34 degrees at International Falls MN was a record high for the date. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air continued to pour into Alaska. At McGrath, temperature dipped to 63 degrees below zero. Strong winds blowing through the Alaska Range between Fairbanks and Anchorage produced a wind chill reading of 120 degrees below zero at Cantwell. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Severe thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. spawned a tornado which destroyed three mobile homes near Blythe GA injuring six persons. A fast moving cold front produced high winds in the western U.S. Winds along the coast of Oregon gusted to 65 mph at Portland, and high winds generated 22 to 26 foot seas which battered the coast. Winds near Reno NV gusted to 78 mph. High winds also buffeted the Central High Plains, with gusts to 94 mph reported at La Mesa CO. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2002 - A major three-day winter storm blasted parts of Kansas and Missouri. A catastrophic ice storm occurred south of the snow area, with two inches of ice and snow accumulating in the Kansas City, Missouri area. Thousands of trees were felled by the storm, blocking roads, felling utility lines, and causing fires. Two "Bicentennial Trees," estimated at being over 200 years old, were badly damaged from this storm. After the 31st, 325,000 people were reported without power in Kansas City alone.

2004: Minnesota: All Minnesota weather stations record a low temperature below zero F this morning. The coldest is Park Rapids where the low was minus 45° F.(Ref. Wx.Doctor)
A strong trough crossed the lower Great Lakes region. The well-aligned northwest flow kicked off an intense band of lake effect snow over Oswego County in New York. The band remained nearly stationary for 36 to 42 hours. Four to five feet of snow fell in a narrow section of central Oswego County by the afternoon of the 30th. The band drifted north into southern Lewis and extreme southern Jefferson Counties for awhile on the 30th, before drifting back south across Monroe, Wayne and northern Cayuga Counties on the 31st. Specific snowfall totals included: 86 inches at Parish, 58 inches at Constantia, 56 inches at West Monroe, 51 inches at North Osceola, 48 inches at Oswego and 40 inches at Fulton. The weight of this snow, as well as previous lake effect storms during the month, caused several buildings to collapse.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2008 - A sharp cold front moved across Illinois during the day, producing a drastic temperature drop. Temperatures fell 20 to 40 degrees in just a couple of hours, with areas from Springfield, Illinois to St. Louis, Missouri seeing temperatures fall as much as 50 degrees between noon and 6 pm. Temperatures in the mid-60s in central Illinois at midday on the 29th had fallen to near zero by the next morning.

[steve392]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

No, because the cold air is here with snow on the ground...acts like a warm blanket for them

Will this arctic blast kill the spotted lantern fly larvae?? 

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Will this arctic blast kill the spotted lantern fly larvae?? 

No. Would have to be like -20

[Wxbear25]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

No. Would have to be like -20

yeah, they're native to China I think, right? alot of China gets hella cold, considering their geography and having pretty much direct access to cold air just north of them at all times

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, LAVistaNY said:

Same for the ticks! Last winter was cold and less snowy and the ticks were brutal!

These were more or less normal winter temperatures 40 or 50 years ago.  Most winters had sub zero temps at some point (not NYC).  That probably controlled pests better.

The averages for January since I've been observing here are roughly 23/37.  That's about where we are right now, although it will come down a wee bit the next couple of days.  The lowest has been +9.  Other than the annual kill-off of my Rosemary sub-bush, that's not enough to kill much.  -5 or -10 might make a difference, but might not ..the pests evolve/acclimate too as they move north.

[Dan76]

How about the parrots.

[steve392]

Just now, Dan76 said:

How about the parrots.

Those monk Parakeets do fine up here in nj in the cold.