January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Krs4Lfe]

Looks nice and cold in the long range. CMC and GFS have something around the 22nd, looks like a SWFE which would favor New England of course. 

[anthonymm]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

God gfs is such a weenie model

[Big Jims Videos]

GFS is shades of the often forgotten January 2018 coastal blizzard. Close to 2 feet and hours of legit blizzard conditions in Point Pleasant Beach that day. 

[NittanyWx]

Maintain the view of a more active southern stream with cold air nosing into the northern tier and potentially into the midcon.  MLK weekend is the start of our best pattern potential for higher impact snow storms in quite some time. 

 

Pieces are on the board, it's a matter of putting them together.

[bluewave]

On 1/12/2026 at 11:08 AM, psv88 said:

15 day warm up is not a thaw. A thaw is like 3-5 days. 15 days is half the month!

Yeah, numerous spots out West and in the Plains are over +10 so far. This was a pretty big miss from the model forecasts issued around Christmas. Models have really been underestimating the ridge from the West into the Plains this winter beyond 7 days out. 
 

EPS forecasts from 12-25-25

Dec 29 to January 5th

Jan 5 to 12

 

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Around 12/27 or so this board and other boards and a host of heavyweight professional meteorologists were posting (somewhat giddily by some) about how amazing the pattern looked for cold and probably snow for the next 2+ weeks.  Most of the good ones said this simply increased the probability of snow, but was no guarantee of it, as predicting that far in advance always comes with significant uncertainty and such patterns don't always verify.  And unfortunately most of us got some pretty cold weather for a week or so and then saw a warm-up that hasn't quite ended yet and very little snow.  

I'm not posting this to be critical, but I am curious what some of our pros/trusted folks would say about the level of confidence they might have for what looks to be a cold and potentially snowy pattern ahead for the last week in January and maybe beyond vs. the level of confidence they might have had back in late December.  

My thinking was as follows:

December 27: Below normal temperatures will continue into at least the middle of the first week of January. Some flurries or snow showers are possible late on January 1 into January 2. 
December 31: The first week of January will likely have a mean temperature below 30° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2018. The only years since 2000 with a sub-30° mean temperature for the opening week of January were 2001, 2010, 2014 and 2018. 
January 1: Milder weather could develop on or around January 7th. The milder period appears likely to last for about a week, but there is some uncertainty about its duration. Afterward, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. 
January 6: No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. 

Verification:
1) The first week of January was somewhat warmer than I had anticipated overall. It was still the coldest opening week to January in New York City since 2018.
2) Snowfall totals were light. That's often the case with a predominant PNA- pattern. For December-January, moderate or larger snowstorms typically have a PNA+.
3) Warm anomalies developed a few days earlier than my thinking (January 5th vs. January 7th). Today (January 14th) will likely be the last day with warm anomalies before the onset of a colder pattern. 
4) While Arctic air could begin to get involved next week, it appears virtually certain that there will be no moderate or significant snowfalls through January 15th.
Going forward, the ensembles continue to evolve toward affirming a predominantly PNA+ pattern. That, in combination with an AO-, has a much higher than climatological frequency of moderate or significant snowfalls. The actual synoptic details will be crucial in determining whether the increased potential will be realized.

Going Forward: January 16-February 10:

I suspect that the combination of the AO-/PNA+ and potential re-emergence of an active subtropical jet kicked off by a possible westerly wind burst (WWB) in the Pacific will be conducive to opportunities for snowfall during the second half of January through at least the first 10 days of February. That includes the chance for a moderate or significant snowfall. However, one will need to watch the synoptic details and how things come together. Overall, my confidence for snowfall for this period is notably higher than it was for the first half of January.

[Krs4Lfe]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, numerous spots out West and in the Plains are over +10 so far. This was a pretty big miss from the model forecasts issued around Christmas. Models have really been underestimating the ridge from the West into the Plains this winter beyond 7 days out. 
 

EPS forecasts from 12-25-25

Dec 29 to January 5th

Jan 5 to 12

 

Yeah, it's been incredibly warm and dry across West and Plains this "winter." The only wintry weather has been from North Dakota through Midwest to Northeast. We are all falling behind average snow. Very mild January thus far for entire US

[Krs4Lfe]

Euro has a cutter for 22nd-25th period where other models show a SWFE. 

[EastonSN+]

I guess in a bright note (for those who like cold) the January thaw looks like it ends today, CPK will be approx 40 tomorrow. 

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I guess in a bright note (for those who like cold) the January thaw looks like it ends today, CPK will be approx 40 tomorrow. 

Finally. We went above average on 1/6 and have been like +10 since then. 8 days

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Finally. We went above average on 1/6 and have been like +10 since then. 8 days

7 days +10 central park.

The worst one in my life was 1991 we actually wore short sleeves for a few days lol.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

7 days +10 central park.

The worst one in my life was 1991 we actually wore short sleeves for a few days lol.

Actually it was February 1991. 

January 1991 was +10 for 10 days during the month.

February 1991 hit 60 degrees or warmer 5 days! 50 plus 11 days!

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Nice to see the GFS and CMC looking much snowier for Sunday night/Monday and with nice cold air in place, whereas for most, Saturday's light snows will be falling at or above 32F, so accumulations will be tough to come by, especially with light intensity during the day. But flakes are still flakes, lol.

these set ups favor ocean/monmouth and long island, not us. we get a few inches, they get buried. we can drive a few minutes south though to see it all....that is, if this even amounts to anything. until the day before, i'm no longer all that excited; and even then, sometimes it doesn't pan out; look at the last one. struggled to make 3 inches....

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Big Jims Videos said:

GFS is shades of the often forgotten January 2018 coastal blizzard. Close to 2 feet and hours of legit blizzard conditions in Point Pleasant Beach that day. 

another heartbreaker up here...what a major disappointment in middlesex county. there's a reason its forgotten, alright....i think we had 5-6. which is fine, but not when the apocalypse was advertised....

[weatherpruf]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Actually it was February 1991. 

January 1991 was +10 for 10 days during the month.

February 1991 hit 60 degrees or warmer 5 days! 50 plus 11 days!

it was the year i purchased a full on down parka from ll bean....which i did not need till 1994, at which point i had gained a few pounds.....my wife wore it....

[Wannabehippie]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

What is a category 3 snowstorm?

[mgerb]

11 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

What is a category 3 snowstorm?

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

[Wannabehippie]

1 minute ago, mgerb said:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

Thank you.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

And for another perspective:

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah, it's been incredibly warm and dry across West and Plains this "winter." The only wintry weather has been from North Dakota through Midwest to Northeast. We are all falling behind average snow. Very mild January thus far for entire US

The record breaking Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet continues to be a big story.

 

[MJO812]

Lovely

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

it was the year i purchased a full on down parka from ll bean....which i did not need till 1994, at which point i had gained a few pounds.....my wife wore it....

January and February of 1990 were just as warm.

6 days 60+

25 days 50+

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

January and February of 1990 were just as warm.

6 days 60+

25 days 50+

Not January, but February of 1985:

2 days 70+

4 days 60+

For some reason I remembered February 1985 being cold. My memory is not what is once was.

[weatherpruf]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not January, but February of 1985:

2 days 70+

4 days 60+

For some reason I remembered February 1985 being cold. My memory is not what is once was.

84 was really cold; i remember the ice sheets on the banks of the raritan river after a thaw; huge slabs the size of a bus.....85 did have some cold days even a little snow iirc. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

January and February of 1990 were just as warm.

6 days 60+

25 days 50+

This was the year of course that the preceding December was frigid.  Snowed on Thankgiving if memory serves, and we got absolutely skunked on a big snow we were supposed to get in December.  (1989 was a big year for skunking - see March 1989 which nailed AC and Montauk but NYC metro whiffed.)  I remember Joe Cioffi on News12 informally betting the desk anchors that December that we'd see over 20" of snow before winter was done.  Instead got about just 7" the rest of the way.

[donsutherland1]

Some light precipitation is possible this evening into tomorrow. Rain showers could transition to a period of light snow or flurries, especially well north and west of New York City where a light accumulation is possible. 

Afterward, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the lower and middle 20s.  Some teens are likely outside of New York City. 

Flurries and perhaps a heavier snow shower are possible on Saturday and Sunday as a renewed flow of cold air moves across the region. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least the middle of next week. Arctic air could arrive early next week. 

After January 20th, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. The probability of a PNA+ regime has increased in recent days. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts related to closing days of January. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +10.51 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.330 today. The PNA rose to +0.963, its highest value since November 2, 2025 when it stood at +1.071.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.3° (-0.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[MANDA]

24 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

84 was really cold; i remember the ice sheets on the banks of the raritan river after a thaw; huge slabs the size of a bus.....85 did have some cold days even a little snow iirc. 

I believe January 85 had a period of bitter cold.  That was the year of the Reagan Inaugural.  It was so cold the event had to be moved inside there were no outdoor events, including no parade.  IIRC windchill was down into the -20's and highs only reached to about 10 during the daylight hours.  I remember waking up 7th Avenue for 12 blocks to get to work and it was BITTER and BITING with the wind.

[eduggs]

ICON and RDPS are 1-4" for Saturday. We take.

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I believe January 85 had a period of bitter cold.  That was the year of the Reagan Inaugural.  It was so cold the event had to be moved inside there were no outdoor events, including no parade.  IIRC windchill was down into the -20's and highs only reached to about 10 during the daylight hours.  I remember waking up 7th Avenue for 12 blocks to get to work and it was BITTER and BITING with the wind.

Sure was.  I think there was a storm as the cold abated at the end of the month-maybe snow to rain or something like that.   I don't remember Feb 85 at all for some reason lol

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Sure was.  I think there was a storm as the cold abated at the end of the month-maybe snow to rain or something like that.   I don't remember Feb 85 at all for some reason lol

Don’t remember the snow at end of the month or February 85 at all either.

If anyone has info on how that cold shot ended….snow???  I would be interested to know.  That cold shot had the holy grail of -40 850 temps into the upper lakes.  Still remember the maps.