January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Through Wednesday, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place.

After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. Some light precipitation is possible on Friday. Rain showers could transition to a period of snow. A light accumulation is possible. Some additional precipitation could arrive on Sunday.

No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +12.16 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.040 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Guidance still seems keen on taking the MJO through the Pacific. With what actually looks like a more legitimate attempt at phase 8 this time. But starting to actually reflect that at H5 more as well. I'd suggest some patience is in order. As much as no-one wants to hear that and I get it. 

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year. 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year. 

Yeah, we'll see. I don't disagree with anything you've said. It's worth mentioning is all. Not saying anyone should believe anything... that's on them. 

[Krs4Lfe]

The only thing that seems to be guaranteed throuhh the end of the month is cold air. GFS has a larger storm just offshore for the 18th. Euro has nothing. All models are signaling a larger storm around the 23rd. Looks like colder air sets in on Wednesday; ending our thaw, and then arctic air comes in next weekend and stays (probably some slight moderation at time) throuhh the end of the month. Very active long range signal. Not just for here but finally for central and south US as well. Will winter finally begin for those places?

[EastonSN+]

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year. 

Yeah we do have to wait for the fast flow to slow down for larger events.

One note, REGION WIDE foot plus events are relatively rare. In the 30 year low snowfall period there were 2 in 1978, 1 in 1983, 1 in 1994, 1 in 1995 and 1 in 1996. 

Only 3 in 20 years from 1970 to 1989.

Ironically, the 1990s which were much warmer had the most.

This is why I am not too worried with the current run.

[donsutherland1]

Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains all had highs of 41F (5.0C) today. If that holds, it would be the first time since November 21, 1998 that all six locations had identical high temperatures. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains all had highs of 41F (5.0C) today. If that holds, it would be the first time since November 21, 1998 that all six locations had identical high temperatures. 

I also recorded a high of 41. Great day to calibrate those weather stations. 

[uofmiami]

37 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I also recorded a high of 41. Great day to calibrate those weather stations. 

40.1 & 40.2 at my stations, haha. 

[psv88]

46 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

40.1 & 40.2 at my stations, haha. 

Looks like they are a degree too low…

[Krs4Lfe]

Icon is close for the 18th-19th. Snow in New England. Trough is positively tilted though. That would work if we’re looking for something small-moderate. But you need negative tilt for the bigger storms. Close but not good enough. There’s still 6 days though. Let see how quickly this goes belly up like the 16th . Maybe or maybe not 

[Krs4Lfe]

GFS has nothing for the 18th. My call from 2 days ago stands, if we lost the 16th, we’d lose the 18th. We’ve lost both. Now we look to the 23rd 

[MJO812]

Euro is frigid in the long range 

[doncat]

Looking like another dry month with just 0.71" here so far and not much on the horizon... Last Jan was my driest on record with 0.58". Not gonna get alot of snow with those numbers regardless of how cold it is. Since Sept 2024, station running a -22" precip departure.

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year. 

My guess is that we will need at least one KU benchmark snowstorm of 12”+ in a wide enough area before the season is done for most of the major sites of EWR,NYC, LGA,JFK, and ISP to reach 25”+ on the season.

But we are still getting no indication of a benchmark coastal snowstorm track in the near term.

We haven’t had any seasons reach 25”+ since 1995-1996 without at least one 12”+ snowstorm. Since our snowy patterns since the mid 90s haven’t lasted long enough for a series of small to moderate events to get us to the 25”+ mark. So we needed to maximize our active snowy periods before we shifted out of the snowy intervals.

But even if we do eventually get one 12”+ event, it’s not a guarantee that the 5 major sites will all reach 25”. This is what happened back in 2022 with the KU events favoring eastern sections like ISP and not EWR.

During this record strong Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet era since 2018-2019, there have only been 4 snowstorms near the 40/70 benchmark with a least one spot in the OKX Zones reaching 12”+. This is why we are at 7 year record low for snowfall across the area. Our last benchmark KU was at the end of January 2022. 

From 2010 to 2018 there were 27 snowstorms closer to the benchmark with relatively good coverage of 12”+ across multiple sites often with numerous counties involved. The tracks which were west of the benchmark favored interior zones. Tracks near or to the east of the benchmark favored the coastal zones. 

Widespread 12”+ snowstorms since 2009-2010 with the maximum snowfall total in the OKX Zones.
 

2022

Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7

2021

Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1

2020

Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4

2019

Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0

 

2018

Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8

Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0

Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8

2017

Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5

Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0

Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5

2016

Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0

Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5

2015

Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0

Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5

2014

Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7

Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0

Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5

2013

Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0

Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9

2012

Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5

Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0

2011

Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0

Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0

Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0

2010

Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5

Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8

Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2

2009

Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

[SnoSki14]

This week was always a long shot but I'd watch the 18th to see if models trend more favorably given the +PNA now setting up. 

[SACRUS]

30 / 22 off a cold low of 22 here.  48 more hours of the warmer / above normal regime which started on the sixth.  By the 16th colder / below normal.  Most snow looks to be showery / flurries or very ligh the next week.  Coldest of the below period looks to be 1/19 - 1/22 perhaps a day or two at or sub freezing (wind chills could kick up Mon). Very cold into the east - the brunt looks aimed initially into the upper MW/Northeast with reinforcing cold building into the week of the 26th.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1932)
NYC: 68 (1932)
LGA: 63 (2017)
JFK: 58 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1981)
NYC: -3 (1914)
LGA: 4 (1981)
JFK: 8 (1981)

 

Historical:

 

1862: Known as the Great Flood of 1862, a series of storms from December 1861 to January 1862 produced the largest flood in the recorded history of Oregon, Nevada, and California. Estimated property damage in California alone was $10 million in 1862 dollars. More than 200,000 head of cattle lost their lives. The State of California went bankrupt, and the economy evolved from ranching to farm-based. The same areas are expected to be flooded again if another ARkStorm (USGS name) impacts California, which could cause over $750 billion (2011 USD), making it more disastrous than California's long-overdue major earthquake. California is currently overdue for a Megastorm, and such an event would have severe impacts on the entire U.S. economy. 

1886 - A great blizzard struck the state of Kansas without warning. The storm claimed 50 to 100 lives, and eighty percent of the cattle in the state. (David Ludlum)

1888 - The mercury plunged to 65 degrees below zero at Fort Keough, located near Miles City MT. The reading stood as a record for the continental U.S. for sixty-six years. (David Ludlum)

1912 - The temperature at Oakland, MD, plunged to 40 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1912:  Cold Wave The Great Cold Wave of January 1912 a record cold wave settled in over the region. Records set in Maryland during this period remain to the present day. It was close, but not quite cold enough to break the records in Virginia set during the February 1899 "Great Arctic Outbreak". The cold wave of 1912 hit on January 5 and continued until February 16. It was one of the most severe and longest in duration on record. Ice formed on the rivers and the Chesapeake Bay. On January 13, Oakland in far western Maryland recorded the state's all time record low temperature of -40°F. In Washington, DC, it reached -8°F. On the 14th, College Park reported -26°F, Hagerstown -27°F, Frederick -21°F, Laurel -19°F, Baltimore -2°F and Washington, DC -13°F. The coldest temperatures in Virginia were -25° at Lincoln (Loudoun County) and Dale Enterprises near Harrisonburg. Fredericksburg was -11°F and Culpeper fell to -20°F. In the Eastern West Virginia Panhandle, temperature ranges were from -14° at Lost City in Hardy County to -30° at Bayard in Grant County. That makes this day one of only five days in the official climate history of Washington (11-1-1870- present) to have a maximum temperature less than 10 degrees F. The first time was on 12-30-1880 when the high was also 9 degrees F. A high temperature of 8 degrees has occurred twice - the first time was this date (1-13-1912) and the second time was 1-19-1994. The coldest maximum ever recorded in Washington, DC occurred on 2-10-1899: 4 °F(Stanley Rossen) (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)
1912: An arctic cold wave struck the region with subzero temperatures. Washington, DC fell to -13°F, Quantico fell to -16°F, Fredericksburg to -11°F, Culpeper to -20°F, Loudoun County to -25°F, Woodstock to -22°F, Harrisonburg to -25°F, Staunton to -12°F and Lexington to -16°. In Rockingham and Loudoun Counties these were the coldest temperatures ever recorded.
Click this link to see Map - NWS


1913: The temperature at Rapid City, SD rose 64° in 14 hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1916: Extreme cold affected the Plains and Midwest. Bismarck, ND tied their all-time record low with -45°. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Williston, ND: -41°, International Falls, MN: -41°, Watertown, SD: -40°, Grand Rapids, ND: -40°, Huron, SD: -40°, Kennebec, SD: -39°, Wheaton, SD: -38°, Timber Lake, SD: -37°, Fargo, ND: -37°, Sioux Falls, SD: -36°, St. Cloud, MN: -35°, Duluth, MN: -33°, Valentine, NE: -30°, Minneapolis, MN: -30 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1932: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 75°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1937: The Ohio River floods covered most of the town of Jeffersonville, sending 13,000 people fleeing. 90,000 people were forced to evacuate Evansville, IN. 70% of Louisville, KY was inundated. Paducah, KY was deserted in the face of the rising water. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1950: January 1950 was one of the worst winter months on record for Seattle, Washington, and surrounding areas. By the end of the month, Seattle measured 57.2 inches of snow, the most snowfall in any month since records began in 1894. The normal January snowfall is 1.4 inches. On this day, a crippling blizzard produced 40 to 50 mph winds and an astounding 20 inches. 

1952: During the first days of this year, the Southern Pacific Railroad found itself battling a series of fierce winter snow storms that threatened all train operations. Their flagship passenger train, the Streamliner City of San Francisco finally set out over the Sierras on this date. The train became trapped in an avalanche. It would take 3 days to free the 226 passengers. Unfortunately, two rescuers perished.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1964: A large, slow moving snowstorm hit the Mid Atlantic  PA was hit the hardest. Williamsport, PA was buried under 24 inches of snow. Scranton, PA checked in with 19 inches and Nantucket, MA recorded 19 inches(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 6th Worst Snowstorm

1972: An elementary school in suburban Atlanta was struck by lightning, sparking a fire. The students had to evacuate the building into the raging storm. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1979: A massive blizzard dumps heavy snow across southern Lower Michigan. Temperatures in the teens and strong winds lead to heavy drifting of the powdery snow, causing travel to come to a halt. The snow, at times falling at more than an inch an hour, caused power outages due to broken tree limbs. Snow accumulations were up to 3 feet, causing some roofs to collapse. South Haven, MI had 21 inches of new snow added to 24 inches already on the ground. Chicago, IL reported 16.5 inches with up to two feet around town. Grand Rapids, MI saw 13.5 inches of snow and 2 to 4 foot drifts with wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph. Peoria, IL reported 12.2 inches and Rockford, IL checked in with 9.5 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Dry and mild weather prevailed across the country. Nineteen cities in the Upper Midwest reported record high temperatures for the date, including Grand Island NE with a reading of 67 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - A fast moving cold front ushered arctic cold into the north central and northeastern U.S. Mason City IA reported a wind chill reading of 51 degrees below zero, and Greenville ME reported a wind chill of 63 degrees below zero. Winds along the cold front gusted to 63 mph at Rochester NY, and a thunderstorm along the cold front produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY, along with snow and sleet. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Friday the 13th was bad luck primarily for the south central U.S. as an upper level weather disturbance spread a mixture of snow and sleet and freezing rain across Texas and Oklahoma. Snowfall totals in central Oklahoma ranged up to 8.5 inches at Norman. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. produced more than a twelve inches of snow in the mountains of California and Nevada. In northern California, Huntington Lake was buried under 40 inches of snow, and up to 20 inches was reported in northeastern Nevada. Heavy rain soaked some of the lower elevations of California. Gibraltar Dam CA was drenched with 5.33 inches of rain in two days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)



1996: The eastern half of Pennsylvania was reeling under its heaviest snow cover in memory. The area around the state capital had nearly 4 feet of snow on the ground. Parts of the northern Susquehanna Valley had nearly 5 feet of snow cover. Six days later, most of the snow would melt and combine with an unseasonably warm rainstorm to produce the worst flooding since Hurricane Eloise in 1975.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[SACRUS]

 

Pretty tame next 7 days precip wise in the whole lower 48, outside some lake snows and light precip elsewhere.  The ridge outwest has dried out California.   Chicago / LA R game may be near 0