January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

7 hours ago, eduggs said:

The GEFS are clustering around the OP as usual, so 0z is worse than 18z. But they are not catastrophic. They don't look completely hopeless. Still some plausible path back to a snow threat. When you trace the critical shortwave(s) back to deep northern Canada, its seems incredible that such a minor shift (100 miles) in placement of a ripple in the flow that travels 3000 miles could have such a major impact on future weather. That's just to say that a minor model error in the critical shortwave track could still cause significant model changes from here on out.

Threat is over

Unbelievable 

[bluewave]

On 1/10/2026 at 7:52 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

In non weather news Bob Weir of the Grateful Dead just passed away. 

I was not a Deadhead but did get the chance to see them a couple of times with some friends in the early 80's. I thought they were great when I did see them and I always loved Bobs vocals.
 

Another legend gone, I can't even keep track anymore but at least the music lives on. 

One evening back in the 1990s I stopped into the old Tower Records in Carle Place up near Roosevelt Field. There was a guy behind a few tables signing some books that he had written. Wasn’t really much of a crowd and it didn’t look like they promoted the event very well.

I walked over to the tables and I couldn’t believe that it was Mickey Hart. Only around a dozen people were there and others were shopping in the record section and not taking notice. He was very down to earth and just a casually  talking with people who he was signing books for.

It’s funny since every time those guys placed the Nassau Coliseum there was a whole community of campers in the parking lot with festivities following them around the country.  A friend of mine from my college days spent nearly a year following them around the country. If the book event was promoted better, there probably would have been a line around the block to get in.

[Big Jims Videos]

just think of how much money was made on Facebook showing fantasy storm snow outputs.  

[Yanksfan]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Threat is over

Unbelievable 

Man I can’t wait for this damn Niña to be done and over with already. They almost never produce snowy outcomes in our part of the country. Already looking forward to next winter with the aspects of a Nino. I’ll take my chances with that everyday and twice on Sundays.

[EastonSN+]

Nothing is worse than cold dry, warm wet.

[bluewave]

Looks like a continuation of the milder and dry pattern through the next week.

 

EPS January 12 to 19 forecast

 

[Krs4Lfe]

Looks mild and dry as far as the I can see. The threat for the 16th is over, and with that, the threat for the 18th is over. So now we will look beyond the third week of the month for any semblance of wintry weather across the US (aside from the Great Lakes in northern New England, which continues to clean up very nicely). Looks quite cold in the long range with the cold air, returning in a few days across much of the eastern, central, south US. Normally that would accompany increased chances for wintry weather, but we’ve seen how that doesn’t always play out. This has been one of the most mild starts to a January across the US that I can remember. Even in the 2023 winter and the 2024 winter, while they were in good for the vast majority of us, there was an active train of storms across the west and central US. Similar to January 2020 which was also quite mild and not snowy for the vast majority of us still had an active train of storms across the northern tier. This January has none of the above and looking into the foreseeable future, remains as dry as it has been. Remarkable 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks mild and dry as far as the I can see. The threat for the 16th is over, and with that, the threat for the 18th is over. So now we will look beyond the third week of the month for any semblance of wintry weather across the US (aside from the Great Lakes in northern New England, which continues to clean up very nicely). Looks quite cold in the long range with the cold air, returning in a few days across much of the eastern, central, south US. Normally that would accompany increased chances for wintry weather, but we’ve seen how that doesn’t always play out. This has been one of the most mild starts to a January across the US that I can remember. Even in the 2023 winter and the 2024 winter, while they were in good for the vast majority of us, there was an active train of storms across the west and central US. Similar to January 2020 which was also quite mild and not snowy for the vast majority of us still had an active train of storms across the northern tier. This January has none of the above and looking into the foreseeable future, remains as dry as it has been. Remarkable 

Most winters have a January thaw. This mild pattern will be 10 to 15 days. 

Colder than average starting the 18th. 

[EastonSN+]

Looks like we are going to hit phase 8 again. So much for getting stuck in phases 4,5,6 due to the warm pool in the western pacific.

Reasons to be optimistic:

Warm pool causing repeated 4,5,6 seams to have stopped.

Clippers being extinct no longer the case.

SE ridge always linking with the MJO not always occurring. 

SE ridge being an unstoppable force is no longer the case.

Next up - fast flow.

 

[the_other_guy]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Most winters have a January thaw. This mild pattern will be 10 to 15 days. 

Colder than average starting the 18th. 

You keep waiting on that cold. This is a warm January that no one on this board wanted to see. We are not waiting for a brief warm up to end. We are in a warm month waiting for a brief cool down. And that is a big difference in expectations

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks mild and dry as far as the I can see. The threat for the 16th is over, and with that, the threat for the 18th is over. So now we will look beyond the third week of the month for any semblance of wintry weather across the US (aside from the Great Lakes in northern New England, which continues to clean up very nicely). Looks quite cold in the long range with the cold air, returning in a few days across much of the eastern, central, south US. Normally that would accompany increased chances for wintry weather, but we’ve seen how that doesn’t always play out. This has been one of the most mild starts to a January across the US that I can remember. Even in the 2023 winter and the 2024 winter, while they were in good for the vast majority of us, there was an active train of storms across the west and central US. Similar to January 2020 which was also quite mild and not snowy for the vast majority of us still had an active train of storms across the northern tier. This January has none of the above and looking into the foreseeable future, remains as dry as it has been. Remarkable 

18th isnt done yet. 16th is.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You keep waiting on that cold. This is a warm January that no one on this board wanted to see. We are not waiting for a brief warm up to end. We are in a warm month waiting for a brief cool down. And that is a big difference in expectations

This month is going to average below normal.

[WeatherGeek2025]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This month is going to average below normal.

just below or normal. It's looking like a two week cold stretch after thursday!

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

just below or normal. It's looking like a two week cold stretch after thursday!

It won't be normal. Depends on your definition of just below normal. Average CPK high temps in January are approx. 39.5 degrees.

[NEG NAO]

25 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You keep waiting on that cold. This is a warm January that no one on this board wanted to see. We are not waiting for a brief warm up to end. We are in a warm month waiting for a brief cool down. And that is a big difference in expectations

"Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). "

That quote is from Don's post from yesterday - How you consider 0.2 below normal "warm" is beyond me.

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Threat is over

Unbelievable 

I mean, it’s a little believable. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I mean, it’s a little believable. 

especially since its still 3 days away

[SACRUS]

 

34 / 20 as we progress warm the next 3 days as ridge builds west trough generally into the east by Thu/Fri and looking overall below normal from then on with some strong cold into the northern Plains/MW and east potentially by the 23rd.  Looking overall drier on the guidance but trough could yield a period or two of some light/mod snow.

1/12 - 1/15: Above normal
1/16 - 1/21 :  Below normal / dry as of now
1/23 - Beyond:   Looks overall cold and potentially some stronger cold (nearby could reach the area)

[allgame830]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Threat is over

Unbelievable 

dude dont be a baby LOL..... Id rather it be on a weekend so I don't have issues getting to work! We have gotten our snows as far this winter. We will get more opportunities its only 1/12

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2020)
NYC: 68 (2020)
LGA: 68 (2017)
JFK: 68 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1981)
NYC: 2 (1981)
LGA: 1 (1981)
JFK: 3 (1968)

Historical:

 

1886: With a reading of 26 degrees below zero, Bowling Green, Kentucky, recorded its coldest temperature on record.

 

1888 - A sharp cold front swept southward from the Dakotas to Texas in just 24 hours spawning a severe blizzard over the Great Plains. More than 200 pioneers perished in the storm. Subzero temperatures and mountainous snow drifts killed tens of thousands of cattle. (David Ludlum)

 

1888: Children’s or Schoolhouse Blizzard occurred on this day. The blizzard killed 235 people, many of whom were children on their way home from school, across the Northern Plains. 

 

1890: A tornado touched down at St. Louis, Missouri, and crossed the Mississippi River, ending just south of Venice. The worst damage from this tornado occurred in St. Louis. Further east and northeast, one tornado in McLean County passed through downtown Cooksville, destroying at least a dozen buildings, while a tornado in Richland County destroyed four homes northeast of Olney. In all, over 100 homes and other buildings were unroofed or damaged. The storm caused four deaths and 15 injuries.


1911: The thermometer at Rapid City, SD read 49° at 6 AM. Two hours later, the temperature had plunged to -13°, setting a record for a 2-hour temperature drop in the United States. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1912 - The morning low of 47 degrees below zero at Washta IA established a state record. (The Weather Channel)


1912: A strong area of arctic high pressure brought extreme cold to the plains & Upper Midwest. The morning low of -47° at Washta, IA established a state record. The record would be tied on 2/3/1996 at Elkrader. Other locations that reported all-time record lows included: Aberdeen, SD: -46°-Tied, Timber Lake, SD: -46°, Huron, SD: -43°, Norfolk, NE: -39°, Sioux City, IA: -35°, and Winona, MN: -35°. Locations that reported January record lows: Williston, ND: -42°-Tied, Sioux Falls, SD: -38°, Grand Meadow, MN: - 38°, Mauston, WI: -37°, Charles City, IA: -34°, New Hampton, IA: -34°, Grand Island, NE: -29° and Muskegon, MI: -21°. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)


1916: The coldest MAXIMUM temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 was -44°F in Glasgow, Montana. This followed their all-time record low of -56. (Extreme Weather p. 63, by Christopher C. Burt) (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1918: Many locations from the Plains to the Ohio Valley and Southeast reported record arctic cold. Fort Wayne, IN set their all-time record low with -24° and Bloomington, IL reported their all-time record low of -23°, which was tied 1/20/1985. Memphis, TN tied their January record low with -8°. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1968: La Crosse, WI received 3.5 inches of snow. This was the latest in a winter that La Crosse had gone without having a one inch or greater snowfall. Many locations across the East reported record low temperatures for the date including: Albany, NY: -26°, Burlington, VT: -23°, Portland, ME: -18°, Concord, NH: -16°, Syracuse, NY: -16°, Binghamton, NY: -13°, Buffalo, NY: -11°, Hartford, CT: -11°, Rochester, NY: -11°, Williamsport, PA: -11°, Avoca, PA: -10°, Allentown, PA: -6°, Providence, RI: -3°, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: -2°, Worcester, MA: -2°-Tied, Atlantic City, NJ: 0°, Wilmington, DE: 2°, New York (Central Park), NY: 2°, Bridgeport, CT: 3°, New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 3°, Baltimore, MD: 3 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)



1981: A bitter cold arctic air mass was in place across the East. Chester recorded Massachusetts’ coldest temperature ever as the temperature dropped to -35°. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Concord, NH: -21°, Syracuse, NY: -18°, Rochester, NY: -15°, Hartford, CT: -14°, Williamsport, PA: -12°, Avoca, PA: -10°-Tied, Worcester, MA: -8°, Providence, RI: -8°, Youngstown, OH: -7°, Milton, MA: -6°, Atlantic City, NJ: -5°, Pittsburgh, PA: -5°-Tied, Harrisburg, PA: -4°, Bridgeport, CT: -3°, Wilmington, DE: -3°, Newark, NJ: -1°, Baltimore, MD: 1°, New York (LaGuardia), NY: 1°, Philadelphia, PA: 1°, Jackson, KY: 2°, Greensboro, NC: 2°, New York (Central Park), NY: 2°-Tied, Oak Ridge, TN: 3°, Lynchburg, VA: 4°, Roanoke, VA: 5°, Raleigh, NC: 6 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1982: Birmingham, AL experienced one of its worst ice storms of the twentieth century as snow swept into Central Alabama around midday. The snow and ice arrived about eight hours earlier than anticipated in the Birmingham area turning roads in skating rinks. Thousands of motorists had to abandon their vehicles on roads and hike home or spend the night in shelters. Atlanta, GA was also hard-hit by the ice storm. An Arctic air mass continued its invasion across the East bringing many record lows for the date including: Syracuse, NY: -25°, Rochester, NY: -15°-Tied, Worcester, MA: -8°-Tied, Lynchburg, VA: 3°, Tallahassee, FL: 14°, Columbus, GA: 16°-Tied, Macon, GA: 17°-Tied, Daytona Beach, FL: 22°, Orlando, FL: 23°, Tampa, FL: 24°, Vero Beach, FL: 25°, Fort Myers, FL: 29°, West Palm Beach, FL: 29° and Miami, FL: 33°. ATLANTA, Georgia had a minimum temperature of -5° F (South FLA. had CITRUS DAMAGE)
Temperature fell to -2F at Birmingham, AL. Pensacola, FL fell to 8 °F. Thirty-four record lows were established across the country. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1985 - A record snowstorm struck portions of western and south central Texas. The palm trees of San Antonio were blanketed with up to thirteen and a half inches of snow, more snow than was ever previously received in an entire winter season. (Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

1985: A record snowstorm struck portions of western and south-central Texas. All snowfall records dating back to 1885 were easily broken. Austin measured 3.6 inches, and Del Rio received 8.6 inches. San Antonio saw a record-setting 13.5 inches from this event.

1987 - Twenty-seven cities in the Upper Midwest reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 72 degrees at Valentine NE and 76 degrees at Rapid City SD set records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - Parts of North Dakota finally got their first snow of the winter season, and it came with a fury as a blizzard raged across the north central U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 14 inches at Fargo ND, winds gusted to 65 mph at Windom MN, and wind chill readings in North Dakota reached 60 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A dozen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. Fort Myers FL reported a record high of 86 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Gale force winds produce squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Totals in northwest Pennsylvania ranged up to eleven inches at Conneautville and Meadville. Barnes Corners, in western New York State, was buried under 27 inches of snow in two days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1996: The fourth and final in a series of snowstorms to strike the East Coast in only 10 days dumped 30 to 36 inches of snow at Oakland, PA, 26 inches at Franklin, NY, and 25 inches at Montrose, PA. Another 4 to 6 inches fell in the Baltimore-Washington area. The 10.8 inches at Harrisburg, PA raised their monthly snowfall to 38.8 inches, the city's snowiest month ever. After this snowfall, many places had over 40 inches of snow on the ground, including Grafton, NH with 50 inches, Danville, PA with 49 inches, Jaffery, NH with 46 inches, and West Granville, MA with 43 inches. Oddly enough, this deep snow cover would be completely eradicated in most areas over the next two weeks from warm temperatures and heavy rains, setting the stage for major flooding.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Montague, New York: Five-day (10th - 14th) snowfall event dumps record 95 inches, 40 inches of which fell in 12 hours from Saturday night through Sunday morning (11th - 12th). Over the 24-hour period, the Lewis County site recorded 77 inches, a new US national record. (Ref. Wx.Doctor)

[SACRUS]

Monthly Departures through the first 1/3 of the month (1/11)


EWR: +3.5
ISP: +2.8
NYC: +2.3
JFK: +2.2
TTN: +1.5
LGA: +1.0

[eduggs]

19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

"Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). "

That quote is from Don's post from yesterday - How you consider 0.2 below normal "warm" is beyond me.

That 55% prediction is not very useful without the associated uncertainty. Even if the statistical method used for the sensitivity analysis is sound, there is presumably a large spread considering our lat/lon and the variability of the underlying factors/predictors. It could plausibly end up well above or well below normal for the month.

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Threat is over

Unbelievable 

Is it really unbelievable?  It never was much of one.  It had next to no ensemble support from any model.  If there was no GFS head fake the "event" would have had very little attention to begin with.  

[MJO812]

Just now, MANDA said:

Is it really unbelievable?  It never was much of one.  It had next to no ensemble support from any model.  If there was no GFS head fake the "event" would have had very little attention to begin with.  

Agree

Gfs was the only model to show anything big.

[eduggs]

The GFS and GEFS have performed poorly for our local area for the past few wintry potential threats. I know local performance is highly variable and somewhat random, and I haven't seen updated verification scores, but I do wonder if the brain drain that started at NOAA/NCEP around 2016 might be finally catching up to us.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Is it really unbelievable?  It never was much of one.  It had next to no ensemble support from any model.  If there was no GFS head fake the "event" would have had very little attention to begin with.  

The hype started based on long-range anomaly charts about a week ago. A favorable "look" on those charts is like cat-nip to some people. The ICON, then GFS, and eventually ECM gave credence to this hype for a while.

[TJW014]

Rinse, lather, repeat. Same thing will happen with the signal around the 20th.

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Gfs was the only model to show anything big.

I absolutely love your spirit, enthusiasm, optimism and love of weather.  Don't give up.  One day the big one will come.  Half the fun is in the tracking so we watch and wait.  It is only half time for meteorological winter so we'll see what the second half delivers.

[Wannabehippie]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Is it really unbelievable?  It never was much of one.  It had next to no ensemble support from any model.  If there was no GFS head fake the "event" would have had very little attention to begin with.  

Any model is going to have a greater degree of error past 5 days than in the short term. So many different pieces need to fall in to place to get a huge snowstorm for the big cities in the Atlantic corridor. The Greenland block needs to be in just the right spot. EPO, NAO, AO, PNAall set up just right. MJO in the right phase. Not too strong of a high coming down from Canada. Anything out of place and that big storm doesn't form or hit. This is why I try not to get excited about anything past 5 days, no matter which model is showing something. 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The hype started based on long-range anomaly charts about a week ago. A favorable "look" on those charts is like cat-nip to some people. The ICON, then GFS, and eventually ECM gave credence to this hype for a while.

Agreed.  The favorable "look" though always had some missing pieces in my book.  No doubt it looked reasonably good aloft for a time and it was worth watching but some key pieces always seemed to be missing.