January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro ai looks like it slightly improved!

Looked like a clear improvement to me. Several runs in a row now. But the GFS-AI went the opposite direction. With the ICON also worse, it's kind of a wash. Theoretical high end potential but so many failure modes.

[Stormlover74]

Heaviest rain seems to have moved out already

[WeatherGeek2025]

22 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Looked like a clear improvement to me. Several runs in a row now. But the GFS-AI went the opposite direction. With the ICON also worse, it's kind of a wash. Theoretical high end potential but so many failure modes.

by tuesday we should have consensus!

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Multiple days in the 50s area wide in mid January is a torch in my book. 

To each his own I guess.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

In non weather news Bob Weir of the Grateful Dead just passed away. 

I was not a Deadhead but did get the chance to see them a couple of times with some friends in the early 80's. I thought they were great when I did see them and I always loved Bobs vocals.
 

Another legend gone, I can't even keep track anymore but at least the music lives on. 

[eduggs]

With the possible exception of the GFS (esp 12z), the solutions depicted are primarily deformation precipitation with little or no overrunning frozen precipitation. This makes it more difficult to get a high QPF event. 

This partly explains the low snow means on the ensembles and AIs. It's only when the solution is extreme (12z GFS) that the big QPF appears.

[Krs4Lfe]

GFS is still on an island with its solutions. Ensembles arent biting too much, nor are the other operational models. Aside from GFS, the trough remains positive on most model guidance which argues against a coastal storm coming up the coast. And a lack of gulf moisture to tap into as well so it’s kind of a sheared out mess. I would not put credence into any big solutions for either the 16th or the 20th. Northern stream seems too fast 

[Nibor]

17 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

GFS is still on an island with its solutions. Ensembles arent biting too much, nor are the other operational models. Aside from GFS, the trough remains positive on most model guidance which argues against a coastal storm coming up the coast. And a lack of gulf moisture to tap into as well so it’s kind of a sheared out mess. I would not put credence into any big solutions for either the 16th or the 20th. Northern stream seems too fast 

Hey man, you have the option to go outside and touch grass. 

[Krs4Lfe]

Icon looked great at 500, and the ridge was in perfect position with a closed off negatively tiled trough in Tennessee. But surface depiction just slides it right out to sea. Probably the Tpv lobe just dragging everything too far east 

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Icon looked great at 500, and the ridge was in perfect position with a closed off negatively tiled trough in Tennessee. But surface depiction just slides it right out to sea. Probably the Tpv lobe just dragging everything too far east 

IYKYK

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

GFS is still on an island with its solutions. Ensembles arent biting too much, nor are the other operational models. Aside from GFS, the trough remains positive on most model guidance which argues against a coastal storm coming up the coast. And a lack of gulf moisture to tap into as well so it’s kind of a sheared out mess. I would not put credence into any big solutions for either the 16th or the 20th. Northern stream seems too fast 

I guess its over

You dont have to look anymore

[Krs4Lfe]

6 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

IYKYK

You would think the surface would respond to those mid level changes but it’s not 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

You would think the surface would respond to those mid level changes but it’s not 

The ICON is still too neutrally tilted. The best PVA is well offshore. We'd want to see vorticity wrapping all the way around the mid-level low towards the coast like the 12z GFS. Otherwise the SLP will track east and away from us.

[MJO812]

Here comes the gfs

[Jt17]

Here comes the gfs

Looking more like 12z


.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Looking more like 12z


.

We get some snow but its a mid Atlantic storm on this run. Weird run with 3 lows.

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We get some snow but it’s a mid Atlantic storm on this run. Weird run with 3 lows.

Looks great at 500 but the precip shield is dried out because there is a double barrel low stealing the precip. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks great at 500 but the precip shield is dried out because there is a double barrel low stealing the precip. 

Your best post ever

[eduggs]

It's interesting how different the CMC is from the GFS and ICON. The CMC completely lacks the intense follow up shortwave that drops from MN to TN and explosively amplifies the trof. On the Canadian the shortwave and its vorticity is closer to the Lakes and connected to the PV. It this feature on the GFS isn't real, the exotic solutions disappear. Heck even with the GFS evolution we get fringed. I love tracking these types of potential events for the excitement and drama, but they usually don't produce widespread snow.

[SnoSki14]

I think odds remain low for a snow event with this storm but at least there's something to track

[eduggs]

GFS-AI is a little worse again. It looks like we're still firmly in a wait and see mode. Still really big intermodel and intramodel (ensemble) variability. Huge spread for 4.5 days out. Way too few big QPF solutions for my liking.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think odds remain low for a snow event with this storm but at least there's something to track

Odds are low for a big snow event 

[MJO812]

Gefs improved

[Stormlover74]

Ukie has a strong rainstorm with maybe a flip to snow on the back side

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie has a strong rainstorm with maybe a flip to snow on the back side

Nice evolution. I thought it would be better than what it showed. 

[eduggs]

GEFS finally support the op and the UK is hugely improved. Yes precipitation is lacking across all guidance relative to the mid-levels. Is that a function of meager lift and lack of overrunning or will it beef up as we get closer?... If I had to guess right now based on the GFS/ICON/UK general evolution, I would expect locally heavier QPF but a lack of a widespread precipitation shield. In other words, I think the lack of classic overrunning out ahead of a surface low decreases the overall magnitude of QPF that we would normally expect with a strong system... but locally, deformation is probably being undermodeled at this stage by the global models.

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs improved

Yes by quite a bit. I guess that's all we can ask for right now. 

[NEG NAO]

When is the last time we had a snowstorm in NYC Metro with the MJO in Phase 6 ? As of tonight have to go with the best model the  Euro Solution with the key players in the wrong positions which equals just about nothing here.

[dmillz25]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

When is the last time we had a snowstorm in NYC Metro with the MJO in Phase 6 ? As of tonight have to go with the best model the  Euro Solution with the key players in the wrong positions which equals just about nothing here.

Jan 2018?

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Jan 2018?

I still can't believe Central Park only got 10 inches out of that storm.