January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Monty]

25 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

thank you and sorry didn't mean to sound like i'm educating, I was just stating the obvious that there is always a possibility of a phase! I am not young i'm an old weather geek tbh and ive been following this board for 15 years already and I decided to make an account. Have a good weekend sir

Sorry I misjudged you. Free country and I'm not a mod, but I still think for the sake of the conversation being interesting and focused for everyone just think before you hit "post." Everyone knows the range of outcomes without you stating the far fetched obvious. 

✌️

[Rjay]

31 minutes ago, Monty said:

Sorry I misjudged you. Free country and I'm not a mod, but I still think for the sake of the conversation being interesting and focused for everyone just think before you hit "post." Everyone knows the range of outcomes without you stating the far fetched obvious. 

✌️

You didn't misjudge our old friend Tony.  This is prob his 20th account. He's like herpies, we just can't get rid of him.  I'll take his ridiculous overoptimism over Krs4Lfe and his stuck on repeat doom and gloom bs.  

[WeatherGeek2025]

51 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

its a message board; don't take it personally. you'd probably be friends in the real world, because there aren't many out there who enjoy snow....not in these parts.

 

45 minutes ago, Monty said:

Sorry I misjudged you. Free country and I'm not a mod, but I still think for the sake of the conversation being interesting and focused for everyone just think before you hit "post." Everyone knows the range of outcomes without you stating the far fetched obvious. 

✌️

 

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

You didn't misjudge our old friend Tony.  This is prob his 20th account. He's like herpies, we just can't get rid of him.  I'll take his ridiculous overoptimism over Krs4Lfe and his stuck on repeat doom and gloom bs.  

nothing but love for everyone on here and i respect all of your passion all around.

[Monty]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

You didn't misjudge our old friend Tony.  This is prob his 20th account. He's like herpies, we just can't get rid of him.  I'll take his ridiculous overoptimism over Krs4Lfe and his stuck on repeat doom and gloom bs.  

Honestly I thought someone split LibertyBell down the middle with an axe and krs and geek were the two halves

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Monty said:

Honestly I thought someone split LibertyBell down the middle with an axe and krs and geek were the two halves

Not even two people working overtime could possibly meet the same astronomical number of posts that guy was capable of. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

You didn't misjudge our old friend Tony.  This is prob his 20th account. He's like herpies, we just can't get rid of him.  I'll take his ridiculous overoptimism over Krs4Lfe and his stuck on repeat doom and gloom bs.  

laughing my butt off. some funny stuff here tonight. we need a storm....

[WeatherGeek2025]

[MJO812]

Gfs going be a coastal hit

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs going be a coastal hit

wow

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

wowwwws 

 

BLIZZARD

 

This is why having a positive PNA is important. 

[psv88]

52 now. Summah

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is why having a positive PNA is important. 

that don't look bad  at all. Wish we could slow it down a little more

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is why having a positive PNA is important. 

What a crazy evolution that would be.

Volatile weather pattern. Will see rapid run to run changes most likely.   

[Cobalt]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is why having a positive PNA is important. 

snowman19 only responding in emojis? Why, what happened?

[NEG NAO]

Totally opposing solutions GFS and Canadian

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What a crazy evolution that would be.

Volatile weather pattern. Will see rapid run to run changes most likely.   

Yep more changes ahead

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep more changes ahead

Doesn't mean it will snow though. A CMC depiction is more likely.  In fact until the MJO circles back around I wouldn't be surprised to see little snowfall until late Jan. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Doesn't mean it will snow though. A CMC depiction is more likely.  In fact until the MJO circles back around I wouldn't be surprised to see little snowfall until late Jan. 

Thats only part of the equation much more complicated than that.

[Stormlover74]

Ukie is rain

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie is rain

Ukie is different than both the GFS and Canadian - would like to be under "hood" of these models and see what info - collected data- is being fed into them and how they are programmed to handle it

[Neblizzard]

23 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

snowman19 only responding in emojis? Why, what happened?

He loves weenies and is a limited poster.  

[psv88]

I don’t think this is our storm. Too early for us. 

[NEG NAO]

For anyone wondering why each models output is so different - here it is

AI Overview

 

 

 

No, different weather models don't get the 

exact same data, and even with similar data, they interpret it differently due to unique physics equations, algorithms, resolution, and data assimilation methods, leading to varied forecasts, which is why meteorologists use multiple models for confidence. While core data (satellites, balloons) is shared, how each model processes it (initialization, grid size, physics) creates distinct outputs. 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I don’t think this is our storm. Too early for us. 

Yeah it really would be...ahem...threading the needle

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah it really would be...ahem...threading the needle

at this point it is not possible to determine which model solution if any of them will be close to verifying - but there are vast differences in solutions now past 5 days - until a couple of them get to the point of basic agreement - confidence will increase probably in another 2 or 3 days. It was amazing though how far in advance they agreed on the current  systems moving through especially the cold front sweeping across the nation scheduled to pass later Sunday - they had that solution for several days now.

[NEG NAO]

The Euro AI solution is closest to the GFS except it doesn't become a wrapped up bomb along the coast like the GFS and lacking the dynamics to draw in the colder air to produce frozen it is mainly rain right along the coast

[NEG NAO]

Nothing to show at all on the 0Z Euro - no snowfall and little precip after this weekend throughout the entire run

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

at this point it is not possible to determine which model solution if any of them will be close to verifying - but there are vast differences in solutions now past 5 days - until a couple of them get to the point of basic agreement - confidence will increase probably in another 2 or 3 days. It was amazing though how far in advance they agreed on the current  systems moving through especially the cold front sweeping across the nation scheduled to pass later Sunday - they had that solution for several days now.

This is why you have to use the ensemble means which never really showed a big snowstorm threat here. What happens in the age of social media is that someone takes a random outlier model run and uses it to justify that there is going to be a big disruptive snowstorm.

I like a big snowstorm as much as anyone. So it’s very disappointing to turn on YouTube and see multiple videos with over the top big snowstorm titles when the ensemble means have much less dramatic solutions.

Part of this is conditioning from the 2010 to 2018 era when it seems like every time we had a ridge out West and a trough in the East there was a major East Coast KU snowstorm. But that era was defined by a weaker Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet that allowed the Southern Stream to take the lead.

So jet stream dynamics have changed since 2018-2019 making it harder to get big snowstorms over 12” for at least some portion of the area. 

 

[eduggs]

Wow at the 0z GFS aloft. 6z ECM-AI is starting to get a neg tilt look too. It's improved for several runs. But counter to that, the GFS-AI has ticked slightly worse for the same number runs. The GFS in particular shows potential to get a high-end trof alignment even without any southern stream energy rounding the base of the trof... Kind of intriguing.

Noteworthy how little support there is for an event near the 15th. 0z GEFS offered a little support, but 6z has withdrew most of it and EPS and GEPS offer almost nothing. The AI models offer more support than the ensembles. This is an interesting test of their relative values. AIs vs ensembles.

[eduggs]

7 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Totally opposing solutions GFS and Canadian

Those maps show two different waves due to timing differences. The first event, roughly slated for Thurs the 15th is already downstream in the Atlantic on the GDPS and the next wave is rolling in. It showed a progressively and positively tilted trof for wave 1. The GFS is wrapped up and cut off southeast of NY harbor so it is much less progressive aloft. Wave 2 is in the northern US and upper MS valley.