January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[WestBabylonWeather]

41 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Nothing, it’s right where you want it actually 

Yup

[Jt17]

Nothing, it’s right where you want it actually 

I wasn't asking. The it was implied. It's what you want was my comment.


.

[eduggs]

The 0z ICON looks nothing like the 12z. It shifted away from a "miller A" type evolution towards model consensus of a positively tilted trof and a weak offshore SLP.

[eduggs]

On the 0z ICON, the northern stream shortwave tracks further east (Dakotas vs. WY/MT) as it dives southeastward to carve out the longwave trof. The ULL in the southeast is left behind and doesn't phase. No Gulf low and a positively tilted trof structure as a result.

[greenmtnwx]

13 minutes ago, eduggs said:

On the 0z ICON, the northern stream shortwave tracks further east (Dakotas vs. WY/MT) as it dives southeastward to carve out the longwave trof. The ULL in the southeast is left behind and doesn't phase. No Gulf low and a positively tilted trof structure as a result.

A coastal is coming in the next 7-10 days, almost a lock. Only concern is precip type. 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

A coastal is coming in the next 7-10 days, almost a lock. Only concern is precip type. 

It's never a lock. Just a constant long-range tease. The trick is to get a solid threat inside 7 days on multiple models for consecutive runs. That has been extremely elusive in recent years. Long range average ensemble anomaly charts don't accurately predict storm threats. That's because the favorable "patterns" and "looks" usually don't look so favorable when they shift from blended long range averages to the intricacies and complex interactions of actual 500mb height fields.

[greenmtnwx]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's never a lock. Just a constant long-range tease. The trick is to get a solid threat inside 7 days on multiple models for consecutive runs. That has been extremely elusive in recent years. Long range average ensemble anomaly charts don't accurately predict storm threats. That's because the favorable "patterns" and "looks" usually don't look so favorable when they shift from blended long range averages to the intricacies and complex interactions of actual 500mb height fields.

It’s coming.

[eduggs]

GFS doesn't look great through 120hr. The developing trof axis is very far east and the ULL is completely shut out. It's looking like we'll still be 8+ days out from anything promising on the GFS.

[eduggs]

I'm not sure it means anything, but the 0z GFS-AI looks much better for next week than the GFS. It's also an improvement over 18z.

The only time this year that the GFS consistently gave our area snowy runs was Dec 26. And it was wrong. Pretty much any other time it has differed from other guidance and didn't show a wintry outcome, it was right.

[eduggs]

CMC a bit GFS-like so far through 120hr. Probably not going to look great either through 7 days.

[Jt17]

CMC a bit GFS-like so far through 120hr. Probably not going to look great either through 7 days.

Pretty wild ending there on the GFS


.

[SnoSki14]

Wish there weren't so many cooks in the kitchen and we had a clean PNA ridge because that's some explosive potential there. 

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Pretty wild ending there on the GFS


.

Shame there's no surface reflection to key on in the Gulf and even a partial phase w/southern stream to initiate the trof maturing processes sooner. So we're left hoping for a helacious trof tilt and retrograding SLP.

[SI Mailman]

21 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Pretty wild ending there on the GFS


.

Congrats Cape Cod

[nycwinter]

one of these years we will get another east coast snowstorm..

[MJO812]

Models still looking interesting for the upcoming pattern. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

one of these years we will get another east coast snowstorm..

This month

[eduggs]

ECM-AI a noticable improvement over previous runs for next week. Still a miss/fringe event but close enough to take seriously. The day 9 event is a hit though largely disregarded due to being in fantasy land.

[NEG NAO]

what happened to the warmer 50's forecasted for Saturday earlier this week? Also I wouldn't trust any model solution past a few days in this setup

'

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

ECM-AI a noticable improvement over previous runs for next week. Still a miss/fringe event but close enough to take seriously. The day 9 event is a hit though largely disregarded due to being in fantasy land.

how reliable is this model since they started using it ?

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS with a nice run this morning. looks pretty decent

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS with a nice run this morning. looks pretty decent

Nice little storm

[Monty]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

how reliable is this model since they started using it ?

It consistently has better verification scores than the rest of the global suite. Good signal. 

[EasternLI]

Now, it does actually appear that the MJO is looking to get active once again. Initiating in the west Pacific as per the possibility mentioned by the CPC. This is a pretty good look at a phase 6 then 7 firing off on the EPS. GEFS doesn't disagree either. We may have another attempt at a phase 8 pass on our hands beyond this. Perhaps a better chance this time with the warm pool a bit further east this time. To me, the key to pulling that off successfully is to see the strong subsidence push fully into 120E. Along with the propagation of convection into the western hemisphere. Which guidance is hinting at may actually happen towards the end of these runs lately. That's promising IMHO. That did not occur last time. 

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice little storm

Now the Final Jeopardy question. Will The GFS OP still show this snowstorm in NYC Metro during the 12Z GFS Model run ?

At least it is now under 1 week away.........

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Now the Final Jeopardy question. Will The GFS OP still show this snowstorm in NYC Metro during the 12Z GFS Model run ?

At least it is now under 1 week away.........

It’s an outlier among all the available guidance.

 

[lee59]

Frosty morning, upper 20s

[SACRUS]

33 / 31 clear more upper 40s / low 50s today.  Cloudy cooler / wet Saturday into Sunday with 0.5 tp 1 inch of rain mainly in the afternoon and into the lat evening. Overall a bit above normal  Sun - Thu before trough digs in.   Next storm threats between the 15 - 19 as it turns below normal.  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 67 (1998)
NYC: 64 (2008)
LGA: 66 (2008)
JFK: 65 (2008)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1968)
NYC: -1 (1968)
LGA: 1 (1968)
JFK: 0 (1968)  cold week

Historical:

 

1875 - The temperature at Cheyenne, WY, dipped to an all-time record cold reading of -38 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1880: A rapidly deepening low-pressure system produced powerful winds along the Pacific Northwest coast. While wind measurements were limited, there were widespread reports of wind damage. 

1888 - Severe cold gripped much of the western U.S. At Portland OR the Columbia River was frozen for two weeks, and in southern California temperatures dipped below freezing in some of the citrus growing areas. (David Ludlum)

1932
Pink snow fell in Durango, CO as dust from the Painted Desert mixed with a snowstorm.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1934
Sleet and ice storm over southwest Minnesota. Hardest hit was Slayton, Tracy and Pipestone. The thickest ice was just east of Pipestone with ice measuring 6 to 8 inches in diameter. At Holland in Pipestone County three strands of #6 wire measured 4.5 inches in diameter and weighed 33 ounces per foot. The ice was described as: "Very peculiar in formation being practically round on three sides, the lower side being ragged projectiles like icicles: in other words pointed. The frost and ice were wet, not flaky like frost usually is. In handling this, it could be squeezed into a ball and did not crumble."
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1937: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 76°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1949: The most significant snowstorm to hit lower elevations of southern California started on this day and ended on the 11th. 14 inches fell in Woodland Hills, 8 inches in La Cañada and Catalina Island, at 2,100 feet, 6 inches at Altadena, 5 inches at Burbank, 4 inches at Pasadena, one inch at Laguna Beach and Long Beach. A trace fell at San Diego, the only time since 1882. Three feet piled up at Mt. Laguna, 18 inches fell at Cuyamaca, and one foot at Julian, CA. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1950: A series of three major snowstorms with almost no break paralyzed much of Oregon. The snows were generally the heaviest in Oregon history. 224 inches of snow fell during the month at Timberline Lodge, OR. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1954: The coldest temperature ever recorded in Greenland of -87° was reported at Northice. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1970: The minimum temperature for the date is -4°F. in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1973: Heavy ice storm in Atlanta Ga. for several days 25 million in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


1973: Heavy ice storm in Atlanta Ga. for several days 25 million in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1976 - Lake effect snow squalls buried the town of Adams NY under 68 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)


1977: St. Cloud, MN recorded their coldest temperature ever with a reading of -43F at 8 AM. Between January 3-19, the low temperatures there dropped to -15 °F or lower on fourteen of the seventeen days! (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1978: Richmond had a 51 °F daily temperature range on this date which was the greatest daily range on record for not only January but for all months. The maximum was 64 °F and the minimum was 13 °F on this date in 1978. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Heavier totals included 9 inches at Sun City KS, 7 inches at Columbia MO, 11 inches at Terre Haute IN, and up to 10 inches in the southern suburbs of Chicago IL. (National Weather Summary) ( Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced ten inches of snow at Boston MA, and 14 inches at Worcester MA. A winter storm in the northwestern U.S. produced a foot of snow in three hours at McCall ID. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Colorado. Winds gusted to 113 mph at the Air Force Academy near Colorado Springs, and reached 115 mph at Boulder. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A third storm in four days hit the Pacific Northwest. Winds in Oregon gusted above 100 mph at Netarts and at Oceanside. Up to 8.16 inches of rain was reported around Seaside OR, and the total of 4.53 inches of rain at Astoria OR was a record for the date. Twelve cities in the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 70 degrees at Cedar City UT was a record for January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: Minneapolis, MN had its first view of the sun in 350 hours or equaling 14.5 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: 17.2 inches of snow fell in Topeka KS in twenty four hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1996: Sub-freezing temperatures severely damaged vegetable crops with losses estimated over $2 million dollars in Hillsborough and Lee counties; with minor damage to the citrus crop in Pasco County, Florida. Several tropical fish farms lost over 50% of their harvest with the estimated loss at $5.5 million dollars. Locations across Florida and the East that reported record low temperatures for the date included: Elkins, WV: -8°, Islip, NY: 14°-Tied, Inverness, FL: 18°, Weekiwachee, FL: 24°, Avon Park, FL: 25°, Lakeland, FL: 26°, Mountain Lake, FL: 26° -Tied, Parrish, FL: 28°, Sarasota-Bradenton, FL: 28°, Tarpon Springs, FL: 28° -Tied, Venice, FL: 30° -Tied and Punta Gorda, FL: 31°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: A powerful Alberta Clipper and a deep Arctic High brought widespread and prolonged blizzard conditions, heavy drifting snow, and dangerous wind chills of -40 °F to -80 °F from the Missouri Valley to the upper Midwest. Across South Dakota, north winds were from 30 to 50 mph gusting to 60 mph. The clipper dropped from 2 to 7 inches of snowfall on top of an already solid 2 to 5 foot snowpack. As with previous storms, most roads again became blocked by huge snowdrifts stranding hundreds of motorists. Some people were trapped in their homes up to several days as snowdrifts buried their homes and blocked the roads with some people having to crawl out their windows. In Wilmot, SD a 12 foot drift covered the community home, where residents had to turn the lights on during the day. As a result of snow removal budget depletions and other storm damages, President Clinton declared all of South Dakota a disaster area. Snow plows from Iowa, Nebraska, and plows and manpower from the South Dakota National Guard helped to break through hundreds of roads. The snowdrifts in some places were packed so hard and were measured at 300 pounds per square inch. The total damage estimate for this January blizzard and for the previous January winter storm was $50 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
Comair Flight 3272 crashed into a field near Ida, OH during a major snowstorm. All twenty-nine people aboard died. The cause of the crash: ice built-up on the wings of the EMB-120 aircraft. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

2015: The halo picture below was taken by Texan Joshua Thomas in Red River, New Mexico. 

[SACRUS]

Warmup period so far

  SIte:  High / low (dep)
EWR:
1/6:  44 / 31 (+5)
1/7: 54 / 37 (+13)
1/8: 53 / 41 (+14)

NYC:
1/6: 42 / 35 (+5)
1/7: 49 / 37 (+9)
1/8: 50 / 32 (+12)