January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[EastonSN+]

This is not a bad look at all for the heart of winter.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This La Niña progression was much more amplified due to the record early stratospheric disruption in late November. The wildcard going forward is now much influence the stratosphere has on the rest of the La Niña progression. All we know for sure is that the stratospheric influence couldn’t shift the persistent Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the rarity of the 500mb pattern with the fast Pacific flow actually worked in our favor for once in December with the record two 4-8” clippers. But now that the stratospheric influence is fading,  we are back to the Northern stream interfering with snowier outcomes like we saw with earlier forecasts for this week. 

I would like your opinion on what I mentioned earlier with so many snowy NYC Decembers 7 inches or more ending up with above normal seasonal snowfall and quite a few much above normal Febs.

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Every La Niña fades at this time of the year. Same story with El Niño. They peak in November/December then start fading. Every event does it. It’s a perfectly normal progression. And what strat warming? There is no strat warming predicted right now, in fact the SPV is strengthening. This idea being floated around twitter that we are going to magically light switch flip the atmosphere into Modoki El Niño forcing by February is preposterous IMO. The premise that we are just going to go from following a front-loaded La Niña winter evolution to a tee from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March? That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response. It defies physics and common sense IMO

Every LA Nina fades at this time of the year ? What are you talking about ? In 2010-2011 , we had a La Nina that was strengthening as winter went on. 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would like your opinion on what I mentioned earlier with so many snowy NYC Decembers 7 inches or more ending up with above normal seasonal snowfall and quite a few much above normal Febs.

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

It's probably the only thing we have going for us at the moment that points towards a snowier winter. Hopefully this year doesn't become the exception, but at least we have one analog on our side. 

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a very changeable pattern this month alternating between troughs and ridges in the East for the next few weeks. First week is starting out with a cold trough near our area.Then the ridge builds into the East this week for a thaw.This is followed again with a trough and colder around the 15th. Then another ridge and moderation as we approach the 20th.

 

Honestly I'm looking forward to the upcoming thaw (I wouldn't call it a torch) but at the same time I am glad it is looking transient.  

Another very light dusting of snow this morning.  Thankfully they did not come around and do another salt dump.

These little snow events are ok but now that the holidays are past I can do without these nuisance events and the persistent cold and wind has become a bit much.  I'll be ready do go again in about 10 days!  In search of a KU this season but don't see the pattern for one showing up next two weeks at least.

Based on the current medium to longer range guidance it looks the anomalies during colder periods would exceed those of the milder pauses in the transient pattern.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It's probably the only thing we have going for us at the moment that points towards a snowier winter. Hopefully this year doesn't become the exception, but at least we have one analog on our side. 

And the negative epo and possible the PNA if the models are right going forward. 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would like your opinion on what I mentioned earlier with so many snowy NYC Decembers 7 inches or more ending up with above normal seasonal snowfall and quite a few much above normal Febs.

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

 

The  distribution of the snowfall this month between ISP, PHI, and BOS is not what we typically see when Islip has a snowy 10”+ December. This is the first time since 1988 that ISP has 10”+ in December and either Philly or Boston doesn’t have at least 10” also.

It’s why we may not be able to use the snowy December winter analogs that followed the other 10” December years on the list. This is due to the 10” at ISP being the first December with two 5”+ clippers that had narrower areas with heavy snow than benchmark coastal snowstorms that also affected Philly or Boston in the other snowy Decembers at Islip.

So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the winter plays out at all three locations. 

All 10”+ snowy Decembers at ISP and the Boston and Philly snowfall

2009…ISP…25.3”….BOS….15.2”….PHI….24.1”

2002…ISP….16.0”….BOS….11.1”……PHI….8.4”

2003…ISP….15.5”…..BOS….21.5”….PHI….6.0”

2010….ISP….14.9”…..BOS…..22.0”…PHI…12.7”

1995….ISP…..13.3”…..BOS…..12.6”….PHI….7.3”

2025….ISP…12.4”…..BOS…..2.3”……PHI….4.5”

1969….ISP….12.0”…..BOS……12.6”….PHI….7.5”

1975…..ISP….11.4”…..BOS…..19.3”……PHI….7.5”

1963…..ISP…..11.0”….BOS….17.7”…….PHI….8.0”

2000….ISP…..10.8”….BOS….4.5”….…PHI…..10.5”

2008….ISP…..10.4”….BOS….25.3”…..PHI…..0.4”

1988…..ISP…..10.4”….BOS….3.7”……PHI…..0.4”

The way we got our snowfall this past December was different from the previous cold and snowy Decembers. This was our first December since at least 1950 with two 4-8” snowfall clippers. Past snowy Decembers into early January had big KU systems with widespread snows over 10”.

The models backing off the coastal system which was forecast for next week is telling us that the Northern Stream is still dominant. We haven’t had a widespread 25”+ season from EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK-ISP in over 30 years without at least one KU NESIS Cat 1 event or higher.

The other thing is that all our recent winters since 21-22 had most of the seasonal snowfall focused into just one winter month. This is why I am concerned that absent a revival of the BM coastal storm track before this winter is over, that December will be our snowiest winter month this year and most spots from EWR to ISP finish with another below average snowfall season.

Since it was something like a 50 year+ event to get two 4-8” snowfall clippers in a two week period in December. That really productive clipper pattern for snow has shifted and we still haven’t seen evidence for a big KU pattern developing.

Whatever happens, this was our best December in terms of cold and snow in a long time which we are all very grateful for.

[eduggs]

The GEFS have been shifting south for Friday night/Saturday (Jan 10). A few members take a surface low - possibly a secondary low - near or south of our region. A well timed shortwave in the northern stream might provide a just-suppressive enough flow to give us some wintry precipitation. It's kind of grasping at straws, but that's probably the next period to watch for a few runs even though this likely ends as some form of a cutter.

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GEFS have been shifting south for Friday night/Saturday (Jan 10). A few members take a surface low - possibly a secondary low - near or south of our region. A well timed shortwave in the northern stream might provide a just-suppressive enough flow to give us some wintry precipitation. It's kind of grasping at straws, but that's probably the next period to watch for a few runs even though this likely ends as some form of a cutter.

it's going to rain

[Krs4Lfe]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's going to rain

Yeah its very rare that cutters trend back down towards the coast. It's just too soon and the pattern change hasn't kicked in yet. However, it could offer significant snow further inland most likely. If we're lucky, we'll get some sort of wintry precip at the start 

[SnoSki14]

48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is not a bad look at all for the heart of winter.

Yeah but that's smoothed out. If we sharpen the ridges then it doesn't look so hot. 

I'll be happy if we get more December type northern stream snows because I don't see any coastals in our future sadly 

Very toasty week coming up. Mostly 50s

[eduggs]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This La Niña progression was much more amplified due to the record early stratospheric disruption in late November. The wildcard going forward is how much influence the stratosphere has on the rest of the La Niña progression. All we know for sure is that the stratospheric influence couldn’t shift the persistent Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the rarity of the 500mb pattern with the fast Pacific flow actually worked in our favor for once in December with the record two 4-8” clippers. But now that the stratospheric influence is fading,  we are back to the Northern stream interfering with snowier outcomes like we saw with earlier forecasts for this week. 

We wish. 

[Krs4Lfe]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but that's smoothed out. If we sharpen the ridges then it doesn't look so hot. 

I'll be happy if we get more December type northern stream snows because I don't see any coastals in our future sadly 

Very toasty week coming up. Mostly 50s

We will have to almost completely rely on the northern stream for some sort of action because there is no evidence of a coastal storm pattern showing up yet. Maybe after the trough swings back east around the 11th. Very rare to make it to our seasonal snowfall without some sort of KU storm. But yeah from 1/6-1/10 it's looking quite warm. 50s next weekend!

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We wish. 

Your area missed out on the 4-8” that most of us got due to the H700-850 warm nose and fast flow pushing the dry slot in so quickly from the west.

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah its very rare that cutters trend back down towards the coast. It's just too soon and the pattern change hasn't kicked in yet. However, it could offer significant snow further inland most likely. If we're lucky, we'll get some sort of wintry precip at the start 

Pattern Change is a made up concept. Every day is a unique atmospheric circulation. Sure we can identify characteristics of atmospheric circulations in real time and quantify them to create numerical indexes. But these are coarse numerical "descriptions." And none of this is very meaningful when focusing on snowfall, which is a local phenomenon and highly dependent on specific regional weather features.

The bigger problem is that we cannot accurately forecast these patterns beyond 10 days. So 15 day ensemble mean charts are not very useful at identifying or forecasting weather patterns. At this very moment we can have little confidence in what the "pattern" will look like beyond next week.

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Your area missed out on the 4-8” that most of us got due to the H700-850 warm nose and fast flow pushing the dry slot in so quickly from the west.

I was in Putnam County NY.
This was NOT a 4-8" event in and around the NYC area. It was 1-5" with 6+ far north and east. It is important that we not create a false history.

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but that's smoothed out. If we sharpen the ridges then it doesn't look so hot. 

I'll be happy if we get more December type northern stream snows because I don't see any coastals in our future sadly 

Very toasty week coming up. Mostly 50s

So far the northern stream clippers have worked out. 

[psv88]

0.4” this morning. Looks wintry. 15” for the year now

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I was in Putnam County NY.
This was NOT a 4-8" event in and around the NYC area. It was 1-5" with 6+ far north and west. It is important that we not create a false history.

This was a solid 4-8” event for most of the OKX forecast zones from Newark on to the north and east.
 

506
NOUS41 KOKX 271454
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-280254-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
954 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Connecticut...

...Fairfield County...
4 NNW New Fairfield          9.4 in    0901 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
1 E Sherman                  8.5 in    0800 AM 12/27   Cocorahs
1 SE Wilton                  7.3 in    0807 AM 12/27   Public
New Canaan                   7.2 in    0800 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
3 SSE Weston                 7.1 in    0715 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Bridgeport Airport           7.1 in    0700 AM 12/27   Official NWS Obs
2 ENE New Canaan             7.1 in    0528 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Brookfield                   6.5 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Bethel                       6.5 in    0700 AM 12/27   Emergency Mngr
Norwalk                      6.4 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
4 SSE Easton                 6.2 in    0600 AM 12/27   Public
Ridgefield 2.4 NNE           6.1 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Shelton                      6.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Stratford                    6.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Bethel 4.5 SSE               6.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 W Stamford                 5.9 in    0605 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Stamford 1.0 S               5.4 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Rowayton                     5.2 in    0914 AM 12/27   Public
4 NNW Ridgefield             5.2 in    0903 AM 12/27   Public

...Middlesex County...
Durham                       8.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Old Saybrook 2.9 NNE         8.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Clinton                      8.0 in    0645 AM 12/27   Broadcast Media
1 SW Westbrook               7.7 in    0240 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Higganum                     7.0 in    0800 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Middlefield 1.4 W            6.5 in    0600 AM 12/27   COCORAHS

...New Haven County...
Wallingford 3.1 N            10.5 in   0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 NNW Meriden                9.0 in    0350 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Waterbury                    8.5 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 NW Cheshire                8.1 in    0830 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
3 ENE North Branford         7.5 in    0915 AM 12/27   NWS Employee
2 NW Hamden                  7.3 in    0647 AM 12/27   Public
4 SSE Durham                 7.1 in    0200 AM 12/27   Public
Madison Center 1.3 N         7.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Guilford                     7.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   CO-OP Observer
3 ENE Branford               6.5 in    0647 AM 12/27   Public
Wallingford Center 1.1 N     6.0 in    0828 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 NW Ansonia                 6.0 in    0531 AM 12/27   Public
1 SW Branford                5.4 in    0700 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter

...New London County...
New London                   7.1 in    0730 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
5 SSE Salem                  7.0 in    0603 AM 12/27   Public
Oakdale                      6.5 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
East Lyme                    6.5 in    0600 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Niantic                      6.5 in    0530 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Uncasville 2.4 NNW           6.3 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Mystic                       6.1 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Old Lyme                     6.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Norwich                      6.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COOP
Pawcatuck                    5.8 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Waterford                    5.5 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Mystic                       5.4 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Norwich                      4.9 in    0600 AM 12/27   COCORAHS

...New Jersey...

...Bergen County...
2 NNE Franklin Lakes         4.1 in    0911 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Montvale 1.8 ESE             4.1 in    0800 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Oakland                      4.0 in    0800 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 N River Vale               3.8 in    0801 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Tenafly                      3.8 in    0730 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Fair Lawn                    3.5 in    0830 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
River Edge 0.4 NNE           3.5 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 S River Edge               3.3 in    0720 AM 12/27   Public
North Arlington              3.0 in    0830 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Lyndhurst Twp 1.6 NW         3.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS

...Essex County...
West Orange Twp 0.6 WNW      3.8 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Montclair                    3.5 in    0800 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 W Essex Fells              3.3 in    0933 AM 12/27   Public
1 WSW Glen Ridge             3.2 in    0730 AM 12/27   Public
Maplewood                    3.1 in    0830 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
2 NE Springfield             3.0 in    0400 AM 12/27   Public

...Hudson County...
Harrison                     4.0 in    0442 AM 12/27   CO-OP Observer
Hoboken                      3.9 in    0700 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter

...Passaic County...
3 NE West Milford            4.2 in    0917 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Little Falls                 3.6 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS

...Union County...
Newark Airport               4.2 in    0700 AM 12/27   Official NWS Obs
1 S Mountainside             3.1 in    0900 AM 12/27   Public
1 NNW Westfield              3.0 in    0911 AM 12/27   Public
1 NW Cranford                3.0 in    0717 AM 12/27   Public
1 NE Union                   3.0 in    0200 AM 12/27   Public
Clark                        2.8 in    0846 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
New Providence               2.8 in    0730 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 NW Fanwood                 1.6 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS

...New York...

...Bronx County...
1 NNE Fordham                4.3 in    0400 AM 12/27   Public
1 NNE East Tremont           3.0 in    0841 AM 12/27   Public

...Kings County...
1 SSE Williamsburg           4.3 in    0715 AM 12/27   Public
Sheepshead Bay               4.0 in    0805 AM 12/27   Public
1 N Bay Ridge                3.1 in    0603 AM 12/27   Public

...Nassau County...
Farmingdale                  5.0 in    0900 AM 12/27   Public
1 N Syosset                  4.6 in    0855 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
1 SE Malverne                4.1 in    0850 AM 12/27   Cocorahs
Massapequa Park              4.1 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Massapequa                   4.1 in    0700 AM 12/27   Amateur Radio
Malverne 0.5 SE              4.1 in    0630 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 N Centre Island            4.0 in    0529 AM 12/27   Public
1 SW Levittown               4.0 in    0202 AM 12/27   Public
1 WSW Plainview              3.5 in    0841 AM 12/27   Public
Carle Place                  3.1 in    0645 AM 12/27   Amateur Radio
Herricks                     2.9 in    0805 AM 12/27   COCORAHS

...New York (Manhattan) County...
Central Park                 4.3 in    0700 AM 12/27   Official NWS Obs

...Orange County...
2 SSW Stewart Airport        5.7 in    0724 AM 12/27   Public
4 SSE Chester                5.1 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
2 NW Stewart Airport         5.0 in    0628 AM 12/27   Amateur Radio
Monroe                       5.0 in    0500 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
3 WNW Warwick                4.0 in    0603 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Port Jervis                  3.6 in    0630 AM 12/27   COCORAHS

...Putnam County...
Cold Spring                  7.8 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Nelsonville 0.3 S            7.2 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
2 W Putnam Valley            5.7 in    0605 AM 12/27   NWS Employee

...Queens County...
1 WSW Howard Beach           4.6 in    0701 AM 12/27   Broadcast Media
NYC/JFK                      4.2 in    0700 AM 12/27   Official NWS Obs
NYC/La Guardia               4.1 in    0700 AM 12/27   Official NWS Obs
1 SW Russell Gardens         3.9 in    0801 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Little Neck 0.3 SE           3.9 in    0800 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 NNE Elmhurst               3.7 in    0815 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
2 S Elmhurst                 3.5 in    0715 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter

...Rockland County...
Stony Point                  5.0 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
New City                     4.2 in    0815 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter

...Suffolk County...
Ridge 1.5 SE                 8.0 in    0500 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Babylon                      7.5 in    0645 AM 12/27   Amateur Radio
Orient                       7.5 in    0615 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
1 W Shirley Airport          7.1 in    0914 AM 12/27   Public
Mattituck                    7.0 in    0840 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
2 SE Ridge                   6.6 in    0904 AM 12/27   NWS Employee
Islip Airport                6.6 in    0700 AM 12/27   Official NWS Obs
Upton (NWS Office)           6.5 in    0700 AM 12/27   Official NWS Obs
1 WNW East Patchogue         6.3 in    0915 AM 12/27   Public
1 NNE Manorville             6.3 in    0730 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Baiting Hollow               6.2 in    0700 AM 12/27   COOP
1 NNE Sayville               6.2 in    0700 AM 12/27   NWS Employee
2 NNW Islip                  6.1 in    0935 AM 12/27   Public
3 WNW Riverhead              6.1 in    0922 AM 12/27   NWS Employee
1 NNW Remsenburg-Speonk      6.1 in    0740 AM 12/27   Public
Center Moriches              5.9 in    0600 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 WNW Sound Beach            5.8 in    0700 AM 12/27   NWS Employee
Stony Brook                  5.8 in    0700 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
1 SSE Bohemia                5.6 in    0550 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Setauket-East Setauket 2.1 W 5.5 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Blue Point                   5.4 in    0818 AM 12/27   Cocorahs
Blue Point 0.3 ENE           5.4 in    0800 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 N Smithtown                5.3 in    0920 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Deer Park 1.0 NE             5.3 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Islip Terrace 0.5 W          5.3 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Deer Park                    5.3 in    0600 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Bay Shore                    5.2 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 WSW Poquott                5.2 in    0425 AM 12/27   NWS Employee
Sayville                     5.1 in    0700 AM 12/27   NWS Employee
1 ESE East Patchogue         5.1 in    0541 AM 12/27   NWS Employee
1 ENE Commack                4.5 in    0807 AM 12/27   Broadcast Media
1 SW Mount Sinai             4.5 in    0739 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
1 S Nesconset                4.4 in    0933 AM 12/27   Public
Mattituck 1.4 SSE            4.2 in    0700 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Amityville                   4.0 in    0800 AM 12/27   COCORAHS

...Westchester County...
Armonk                       6.4 in    0200 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
Shrub Oak                    6.0 in    0600 AM 12/27   COOP
Shrub Oak                    6.0 in    0600 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
1 N Port Chester             5.9 in    0857 AM 12/27   Public
2 NNE White Plains           5.8 in    0800 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
1 SE Croton-on-Hudson        5.7 in    0800 AM 12/27   Trained Spotter
White Plains                 5.4 in    0800 AM 12/27   Amateur Radio
South Salem                  5.4 in    0715 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Armonk                       5.0 in    0800 AM 12/27   COCORAHS
Thornwood                    5.0 in    0800 AM 12/27   Amateur Radio
1 E Scarsdale                4.5 in    0800 AM 12/27   Public
1 SSE Greenville             4.3 in    0800 AM 12/27   Public
Mount Vernon                 3.0 in    0800 AM 12/27   Amateur Radio
1 E Pelham Manor             2.8 in    0736 AM 12/27   Public

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was a solid 4-8” event for most of the OKX forecast zones. 
 

The OKX forecast zone is almost entirely NORTH and EAST of NYC.

I plotted the NWS reports on the map I posted before. It shows the distribution of snowfall a lot better than the NWS PNS.

[EasternLI]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this. Also Don provided stats on how a positive PNA was likely following a long RNA period.

It DOES look as though we are heading into phase six again, almost connecting to the last wave starting period below. If this holds we could see another phase 8.

So much for the warm pool keeping us in phases 4/5/6, clippers being extinct, NAO always linking to the SE Ridge, SE ridge being an entity in itself and taking over. I think you even showed the warm pool was shifting slowly east which would be favorable (i.e. the western warm pool being there "the rest of our lives"). 

I'm of the opinion that I do not believe we ever really truly achieved phase 8 on that first attempt. The signal was shoved there with a turbocharged (due to the events in the strat) CCKW. However that waned as the strat event ended. Plus the falling AAM at the same time attenuated the signal further. Sort of abandoning it. So we didn't exactly get a classic response. The MJO has been disorganized since then and not really much of a factor. CPC MJO desk has mentioned how it's been inactive as of late as well. As such I'm really not trusting any MJO output at this time until something more coherent shows up on multiple cycles. CCKW's and ERW's are the main event in the tropics for now, and that's giving models fits. CPC does mention that if another MJO were to initiate in January, it would likely begin in the west Pacific due to underlying conditions. So if one were to take shape, that's probably not a bad location as a guess. I just don't have any faith in that forecast as of yet. The warm pool situation is more for Feb. If you can have it bump east enough away from it's climo position that's how you can attain a cold Feb. Which has a fair enough chance of occurring as per posts in the main enso thread. La nina is bad in Feb because the climo position of that feature is ~120E. So convective forcing is concentrated mostly in that spot. So you wind up with the Aleutian ridge/ SE ridge regime that is widely known. If you start to shift it away from that and inch it more and more towards the dateline instead, you start working Pacific ridging into more and more of a favorable location. Instead of the climo la nina location. That's one way to get a cold Feb out of a la nina. Which seems like could be happening with a big WWB in progress out there now and perhaps again later in the month, but will it all be enough. It's already made the move away from 120E since October. It doesn't need to be centered on the dateline, just a little bit more east past 150E could work. It's really not all that far off...

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'm of the opinion that I do not believe we ever really truly achieved phase 8 on that first attempt. The signal was shoved there with a turbocharged (due to the events in the strat) CCKW. However that waned as the strat event ended. Plus the falling AAM at the same time attenuated the signal further. Sort of abandoning it. So we didn't exactly get a classic response. The MJO has been disorganized since then and not really much of a factor. CPC MJO desk has mentioned how it's been inactive as of late as well. As such I'm really not trusting any MJO output at this time until something more coherent shows up on multiple cycles. CCKW's and ERW's are the main event in the tropics for now, and that's giving models fits. CPC does mention that if another MJO were to initiate in January, it would likely begin in the west Pacific due to underlying conditions. So if one were to take shape, that's probably not a bad location as a guess. I just don't have any faith in that forecast as of yet. The warm pool situation is more for Feb. If you can have it bump east enough away from it's climo position that's how you can attain a cold Feb. Which has a fair enough chance of occurring as per posts in the main enso thread. La nina is bad in Feb because the climo position of that feature is ~120E. So convective forcing is concentrated mostly in that spot. So you wind up with the Aleutian ridge/ SE ridge regime that is widely known. If you start to shift it away from that and inch it more and more towards the dateline instead, you start working Pacific ridging into more and more of a favorable location. Instead of the climo la nina location. That's one way to get a cold Feb out of a la nina. Which seems like could be happening with a big WWB in progress out there now and perhaps again later in the month, but will it all be enough. It's already made the move away from 120E since October. It doesn't need to be centered on the dateline, just a little bit more east past 150E could work. It's really not all that far off...

Good post

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

And the negative epo and possible the PNA if the models are right going forward. 

It would be nice to see some southern stream activity get going. None of the models have any of that showing up in the future. Without that, we'll be similar to the cold and dry like Jan-Feb 2025. But as long as northern stream remains active, we can get some clipper action 

[eduggs]

Most of us were lucky last month to get a few minor snow events with cold temperatures and even a borderline moderate snowstorm despite the lack of any classic coastal low tracks.

Now we are seeing some back luck with an unfavorable height field forecast out to the end of the mid-range during a peak snow climo period.

[WeatherGeek2025]

let's phase this and we could get the biggest storm in years 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Every LA Nina fades at this time of the year ? What are you talking about ? In 2010-2011 , we had a La Nina that was strengthening as winter went on. 

 

winter was done by feb 1st. best we could do was an ice storm and a rain noreaster that downed power lines. but it was an epic four weeks....

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Honestly I'm looking forward to the upcoming thaw (I wouldn't call it a torch) but at the same time I am glad it is looking transient.  

Another very light dusting of snow this morning.  Thankfully they did not come around and do another salt dump.

These little snow events are ok but now that the holidays are past I can do without these nuisance events and the persistent cold and wind has become a bit much.  I'll be ready do go again in about 10 days!  In search of a KU this season but don't see the pattern for one showing up next two weeks at least.

Based on the current medium to longer range guidance it looks the anomalies during colder periods would exceed those of the milder pauses in the transient pattern.

The 33° to 34° average temperature from EWR to ISP in December felt much colder due to the strong winds. Plus we have become accustomed to Decembers closer to 40° since 2011. But it would have been warmer than average by mid 1800s standards.

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	39.7	39.7
2025	33.2	33.2
2024	37.9	37.9
2023	44.3	44.3
2022	38.3	38.3
2021	44.5	44.5
2020	38.0	38.0
2019	37.6	37.6
2018	39.4	39.4
2017	34.6	34.6
2016	37.7	37.7
2015	49.8	49.8
2014	40.1	40.1
2013	36.9	36.9
2012	41.1	41.1
2011	42.5	42.5

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	31.9	31.9
1872	24.7	24.7
1871	28.4	28.4
1870	33.6	33.6
1869	32.9	32.9
1868	28.2	28.2
1867	26.7	26.7
1866	30.7	30.7
1865	35.2	35.2
1864	31.9	31.9
1863	31.4	31.4
1862	32.7	32.7
1861	33.6	33.6
1860	28.8	28.8
1859	29.3	29.3
1858	32.7	32.7
1857	37.0	37.0
1856	29.8	29.8
1855	33.6	33.6
1854	28.8	28.8
1853	32.8	32.8
1852	39.7	39.7
1851	27.2	27.2
1850	33.8	33.8
1849	33.1	33.1
1848	39.9	39.9
1847	36.3	36.3
1846	31.3	31.3
1845	27.6	27.6
1844	33.0	33.0
1843	33.4	33.4

 

[Wannabehippie]

14 hours ago, Prue11 said:

1/4 tank a month during winter sounds good to me. Like Sussex said I’ve gone through almost 1/2 a tank a month and my thermostat is never set higher than 66

How well insulated is your home? Poor insulation can really drive up the amount of oil/gas/electric you use to heat your home.

[Wannabehippie]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a very changeable pattern this month alternating between troughs and ridges in the East for the next few weeks. First week is starting out with a cold trough near our area.Then the ridge builds into the East this week for a thaw.This is followed again with a trough and colder around the 15th. Then another ridge and moderation as we approach the 20th.

 

I am surprised at how many changes we see over North America we see, when the Greenland block weakens a bit, but is in place until at least the 19th as per the models.

 

[psv88]

It snows everyday now. It’s been quite a start to winter. Cold and 15” of snow by 1/4. With like 8-9 snowfalls. If you like winter weather, you have nothing to complain about