OBS/Totals for 12/26-27 Storm

[donsutherland1]

Five photos from this morning.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Has anyone audited the Central Park measurement for this storm? Wondering if they really had 4.3 inches. This commenter claims she measured 1.8 to 2.8 just west of the Park.

 

Just worried with all the unhinged lunatics complaining about the Park's snowfall measurements, we won't start seeing them inflate the measurement to appease these people.

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Has anyone audited the Central Park measurement for this storm? Wondering if they really had 4.3 inches. This commenter claims she measured 1.8 to 2.8 just west of the Park.

 

Anyone know WHY they moved the all the weather sensors from the castle to a thicket?  Just don't understand why they would have moved them and screwed up a VERY long period of record.  Makes no sense.

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Five photos from this morning.

Man of many talents.  Nice pictures as always ! !

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Just worried with all the unhinged lunatics complaining about the Park's snowfall measurements, we won't start seeing them inflate the measurement to appease these people.

All other spots around them got just about 4” of snow. Would make sense that they did as well. 

[Byrdhousebv]

Ending up with around 2" in NE Monmouth Co. Was disappointed last night that we missed the incoming heavier snow uo front, but the lingering light snow this morning made for a pleasant, wintery scene. An enjoyable event!

 

[MANDA]

QPF was pretty much as expected .4 to .6" forum wide, a few exceptions.

A forecast of 3-6" or 4-8" was the way to go.  Most places fell in that range.  Obviously lower totals of those ranges west and higher east.

Just picking a few spots on LI and southern CT where precip was all snow for the event the ratios were no better than 10:1 at most places.  That should put to rest "cold temperatures = higher ratios" way more involved than just temperatures.

Click map to enlarge.

[JonClaw]

Does the 4.3" at Central Park count as the streak being broken or did the timing mess with that again?

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Just worried with all the unhinged lunatics complaining about the Park's snowfall measurements, we won't start seeing them inflate the measurement to appease these people.

I believe it's a good measurement. Every site in Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, and the Bronx listed on the NWS PNS had 3" or more. JFK, LGA, and NYC all had somewhat over 4".

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

Does the 4.3" at Central Park count as the streak being broken or did the timing mess with that again?

The streak without a 4" or above snowstorm ended; the streak with less than 4" daily snowfall continues.

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

Does the 4.3" at Central Park count as the streak being broken or did the timing mess with that again?

Central Park had 0.3" at 7pm, 2.3" at 1am and 4.3" at 7am.  It's tough to say bc they don't measure between hours.  Using that info I could say we probably didn't break the streak on the 4" snowfall day but I'm not sure if there's a way to know.  Don or Bluewave will probably chime in.  

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The streak without a 4" or above snowstorm ended; the streak with less than 4" daily snowfall continues.

Lol thanks 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Rjay said:

Central Park had 0.3" at 7pm, 2.3" at 1am and 4.3" at 7am.  It's tough to say bc they don't measure between hours.  Using that info I could say we probably didn't break the streak on 4" snowfall day but I'm not sure if there's a way to know.  Don or Bluewave will probably chime in.  

I think they also use an estimate for the daily snowfall as they do not measure at both 12am and 1am.  They did for awhile but for the last 4-5 years have stopped doing that.  The official daily total was 1.7 I think.  I have no idea what they used to do pre 92-93.  I was told years back they just had the HMT/Intern drive up to a spot in the park from the NWS office at Rockefeller and measure at 12/1/7/1/7 respectively.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The streak without a 4" or above snowstorm ended; the streak with less than 4" daily snowfall continues.

Don when was the last 4 inch daily snowfall in the park?
A dubious record for sure, you could technically have 7.8 inches of snow from one storm and still keep that record intact. 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, hooralph said:

Just getting online and was going to report my storm total estimate of about 3" when I see CPK recorded 4.3". LOL...  It's definitely not as deep as the one two weeks ago, though clearly more dense/ more WE.

4.3"   In basketball parlance we'd call that a make-up-call.

[Snowlover11]

4.5” Final total

 

11.6” on the season.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

38 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Just worried with all the unhinged lunatics complaining about the Park's snowfall measurements, we won't start seeing them inflate the measurement to appease these people.

Sure that's the problem. They've under measured for five years and now we're worried about one that seems correct. So ridiculous. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Sure that's the problem. They've under measured for five years and now we're worried about one that seems correct. So ridiculous. 

5 years?  It's almost as if you've forgotten your boy the zookeeper 

[TheClimateChanger]

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Don when was the last 4 inch daily snowfall in the park?
A dubious record for sure, you could technically have 7.8 inches of snow from one storm and still keep that record intact. 

Looks like January 29, 2022.

[eduggs]

Nice f'in job by the NAM yesterday at go time. It nailed the jackpot zone, the 3-4" across NYC metro, 4-6 LHV, and less in NJ. It even showed the inv trof lingering into daylight hours today. 

Sure you can quibble about minor misses here and there (remember this is 3rd party estimated at 10:1)... like it had more sleet than snow overnight in NJ which slightly underestimated final totals there and SWCT might be a little low. But with snowfall forecasting, no forecast map is ever perfect. But the NAM was hands down the winner. GFS performed horribly. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

5 years?  It's almost as if you've forgotten the zookeeper 

So true RJ I just didn't want to go through the whole history of decades of under measurements for one disgruntled poster. You know my history all too well.  

[JerseyWx]

I checked Mount Holly's forecast area and I was surprised my total was pretty much tied for the highest around.  

I had exactly 4 inches.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Nice f'in job by the NAM yesterday at go time. It nailed the jackpot zone, the 3-4" across NYC metro, 4-6 LHV, and less in NJ. It even showed the inv trof lingering into daylight hours today. 

Sure you can quibble about minor misses here and there (remember this is 3rd party estimated at 10:1)... like it had more sleet than snow overnight in NJ which slightly underestimated final totals there and SWCT might be a little low. But with snowfall forecasting, no forecast map is ever perfect. But the NAM was hands down the winner. GFS performed horribly. 

The 18Z RRFS was pretty close on the sleet idea too.  It had the line briefly over NYC in the evening for an hour or two.  So at least it seems the RRFS is better than the HRRR on warm advection aloft.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 18Z RRFS was pretty close on the sleet idea too.  It had the line briefly over NYC in the evening for an hour or two.  So at least it seems the RRFS is better than the HRRR on warm advection aloft.

So at the end of the day these models are only useful inside 12 hours like the hrrr. 72 hours out it was jackpotting Baltimore 

[Prue11]

Looks like 1.5 miles SE of ridge was the winner in suffolk. NOAA reporting 8” there.

around 14” for me on the year and it’s still December. If you told me that in October I’d have laughed 

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Don when was the last 4 inch daily snowfall in the park?
A dubious record for sure, you could technically have 7.8 inches of snow from one storm and still keep that record intact. 

January 29, 2022.

[eduggs]

Don't ignore the NAM inside 48 hours. Yes, it's prone to bigger run-to-run shifts than the globals, but its multi-run trends are meaningful. And it wins more often than any other model when it's a perceived outlier. And to counter potential false memories, the NAM 36 hours ago had some support from the ECM. When the short range models plus the UK and others started to follow suit, it should have gotten more attention. This really could have been better forecasted if people hadn't ignored the best short range model we have for this kind of forecast. In any case, most of us woke up to a beautiful morning today!

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This has to be the first time in ages I can recall the Euro/NAM both actually getting QPF right in a storm, in general they're insanely too dry/wet respectively.  Its strange how both somehow got it right the QPF would be way lower than many other guidance parameters had

The old Euro-ETA combo. A deadly accurate force back in the day didn’t again for one final time time last night 

[eduggs]

It looks like officially NYC got more snow than BOS. But the greater Boston area received about the same amount of snow as the metro NYC area. It sure didn't look like that would happen 2 or 3 days ago.

[NorthShoreWx]

52 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

Does the 4.3" at Central Park count as the streak being broken or did the timing mess with that again?

This is an important question since the nature of the rest of the winter depends on the answer.