OBS/Totals for 12/26-27 Storm

[Dark Star]

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its because a layer of warmth surging now north and east

 

The system is weaker, which is why we saw several breaks of sun during the day.  90% of the time, when it become overcast, and sun breaks through, it is the kiss of death.  Didn't say anything earlier, didn't want the weenie tag.  Also, the center of the storm is north.  Maybe see some moderate snow as more consistent precip moves our way?

[rickymortyx]

LI is approaching 8"? Interesting storm for sure.

[wthrmn654]

Absolutely puking snow right now jeez

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Upton also

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Upton also

This sucks

 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Upton also

This sucks

Why are you surprised? This literally happens nearly every storm for your area 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, rickymortyx said:

LI is approaching 8"? Interesting storm for sure.

No he said he likes the 8 inch call for storm total

[nycsnow]

Radar seems to be getting more of a ESE orientation with the bands coming down??

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, rickymortyx said:

Either crews got too excited, or the budget this year was massive -- and allocating that much money to winter weather needs to be justified.

what ever weather consulting firm they use here  giving them their guidance told them to expect a lot of ice and they started putting down a layer of salt on the main roads before the precip started - great job !

[Picard]

15 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

That dry slot in northern pa/ny border is massive this thing is in and out by 1-2am if it doesn’t fill in.

North NJ is done by 9-9:30 unless that fills in.  I'm at about 3/4 to 1 " snow and sleet on the ground.
Bust here is almost certain unless there is a drastic change in this storm system that hasn't played out yet.  But that's looking doubtful.

[EastonSN+]

Updated NWS form central park.

onight

Snow and freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 32 by 3am. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

[donsutherland1]

Moderate to heavy snow has developed in the Larchmont area.

[jm1220]

Wow, heavy snow. 2.5”. 

[rickymortyx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Upton also

This sucks

There is no way EWR sees 4". This thing is hauling. JP will be SNY/SWCT/NLI corridor.

[BoulderWX]

8 minutes ago, rickymortyx said:

radar looks spotty, don't like it one bit. should be done by ~11PM here. in western jersey.

greatest threat is ice.

Radar looks atrocious. Like you said, I could easily see this over by midnight. 

[Winterweatherlover]

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I disagree.  The northern suburbs will always be snowy overall than the coast. 

He said compared to the city which I agree. The northern suburbs generally do better than NYC/LI but LI def does better than NYC in most events. 

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Moderate to heavy snow has developed in the Larchmont area.

Thanks Don.  Great pic. 

 

[rickymortyx]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what ever weather consulting firm they use here  giving them their guidance told them to expect a lot of ice and they started putting down a layer of salt on the main roads before the precip started - great job !

Haha - I bet you that consulting firm is using AI as well. I was looking at soundings yesterday and saw signs of a sneaky warm layer despite weather models showing it as snow. Never works out well.

[EastonSN+]

4 inches now Easton CT.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, rickymortyx said:

lull has reached warren county. better hope this backfills or it'll be out by 10pm. a warning and state of emergency for this is a joke.

The system is thankfully starting to move in more of a SE direction so it’s not a west to east dry slot, but it’s pretty clear this will end up on the low end of expectations for most of NJ because of how far N the 700mb low tracked. The best dynamics were over upstate NY. 

[BxEngine]

Yeah we’re not doing the personal attacks on the mets. Find a way to discuss a possible failure without being an asshole, thanks. 

[rickymortyx]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The system is thankfully starting to move in more of a SE direction so it’s not a west to east dry slot, but it’s pretty clear this will end up on the low end of expectations for most of NJ because of how far the 700mb low tracked. The best dynamics were over upstate NY. 

Entire state busted low. From SNJ to High Point.

[rickymortyx]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The system is thankfully starting to move in more of a SE direction so it’s not a west to east dry slot, but it’s pretty clear this will end up on the low end of expectations for most of NJ because of how far N the 700mb low tracked. The best dynamics were over upstate NY. 

Which model had this out of here by 9:00 PM? I'm going to assume there's going to be some backfilling but radar doesn't look promising. Very spotty -- I'm pretty confident what's in CPA is freezing rain, classic indicator is the spottiness of the precipitation. 

[BoulderWX]

Places in Long Island will bust high, almost all of NJ will bust low. It happens. 
 

dumping snow but back edge is so close. Not one model had this done by 9 which it will be at this rate 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Mod. Snow. 16.7F. Maybe 1 new."? Agree. Radar looks terrible.  Unless this somehow this  fills in, there's no way we are getting  the 5-8, and up to 10" in higher elevations here as forecasted. 

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

The system is weaker, which is why we saw several breaks of sun during the day.  90% of the time, when it become overcast, and sun breaks through, it is the kiss of death.  Didn't say anything earlier, didn't want the weenie tag.  Also, the center of the storm is north.  Maybe see some moderate snow as more consistent precip moves our way?

this sucks for us. no other way to spin it. we just aren't in the mix. that's ok when expectations are muted, but all this talk of biggest storm in four years....we had nearly a foot here in feb 24. it's a wide subforum, i know, but a sleetfest, and not all that big of one, was just not expected. at least i'm watching a bad movie with my daughter, chainsaw man, which i can't make heads or tails of, but its quality time with the daughter, i guess....

[Prue11]

This system seems to be moving much faster than anyone thought. Even LI may be done by 12-1am

[MJO812]

People are going to be pissed at meteorologists once again. All the news outlets had this being the biggest snowstorm in NYC in a few years. 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Prue11 said:

This system seems to be moving much faster than anyone thought. Even LI may be done by 12-1am

No

[ILoveWinter]

Oh well a bust it looks like for the city. Nothing new here as we’ve busted low on nearly every storm for the past several years. 

[SnowenOutThere]

9 minutes ago, rickymortyx said:

There is no way EWR sees 4". This thing is hauling. JP will be SNY/SWCT/NLI corridor.

It’s a bit of a yikes to cut amounts in half and those still be optimistic. It’s not the Mets fault because anywhere north of where the mix line set up would cash in but man there will be some angry people tomorrow