26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Kitz Craver]

Take em up!

[Ginx snewx]

How many will go to the bathroom to check models during Christmas dinner?  Lol sickos

[vortex95]

A little perspective for those complaining how "lousy" the pattern is (Re: CoastalWx LOL) and the upcoming event.

How often do you see a swath of 12-18" in the NEUS *not* from LES/OES/NORLUN and w/o any sig orographics from basically a weak clipper (pressure gets no lower than 1007 mb).  Find me one!

This will make two foot plus events in the NEUS in 3.5 days that impact high population areas.

W/ this upcoming event, it also shows how important strong Arctic high pressure to the N for sig snow.  Solid damning w/ low-level Arctic air in place is paramount. 

Everyone seems to look for that 960 mb superbomb that "drills for oil" off just off the coast, and don't realize that you can do well in a gradual, piecemeal fashion from more subtle events.  In other words, swinging for HRs all the time and ignoring singles and doubles is going to result in frustration/disappointment often.

I think many of us were spoiled from the epic period 1992-93 to 2015-16.  But so far this winter in the NEUS, you add up all that has happened, it is much better than the last several.  Sure, some areas still are "holed" (like South Weymouth ), but one needs to look at the big pix.  I still think that 4/063 SOG at Mt Mansfield earlier this month, which was by far the most SOG so early for the location, is nothing to shake a stick at! 

If this kind of "subtle" winter pattern for snowfall events continues for the rest of the winter, it's going to turn out pretty good for many I think.
 

[SouthCoastMA]

there's the @TauntonBlizzard2013 bump for 2"+. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Man, one more bump on the euro like that and could Be advisory level even here. Hopefully some surprise bands on north side

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Man, one more bump on the euro like that and could Be advisory level even here. Hopefully some surprise bands on north side

Also mesos showing some ocean enhancement I'll take another 25 mile bump too

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

there's the @TauntonBlizzard2013 bump for 2"+. 

Yeah, one more 20-30 mile Bump and it could be a few inches here.

 

i remain skeptical for now 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, one more 20-30 mile Bump and it could be a few inches here.

 

i remain skeptical for now 

yes, well advised 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

yes, well advised 

Verbatim, the euro is plowable here, but this could just as well sink back another 30 miles tonight.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How many will go to the bathroom to check models during Christmas dinner?  Lol sickos

I would do it right at the table. Hell, I may bring my laptop and an additional monitor and toss the food onto the floor and setup shop on the table

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How many will go to the bathroom to check models during Christmas dinner?  Lol sickos

I did yesterday and will be doing it today while taking a " dump "

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

A little perspective for those complaining how "lousy" the pattern is (Re: CoastalWx LOL) and the upcoming event.

How often do you see a swath of 12-18" in the NEUS *not* from LES/OES/NORLUN and w/o any sig orographics from basically a weak clipper (pressure gets no lower than 1007 mb).  Find me one!

This will make two foot plus events in the NEUS in 3.5 days that impact high population areas.

W/ this upcoming event, it also shows how important strong Arctic high pressure to the N for sig snow.  Solid damning w/ low-level Arctic air in place is paramount. 

Everyone seems to look for that 960 mb superbomb that "drills for oil" off just off the coast, and don't realize that you can do well in a gradual, piecemeal fashion from more subtle events.  In other words, swinging for HRs all the time and ignoring singles and doubles is going to result in frustration/disappointment often.

I think many of us were spoiled from the epic period 1992-93 to 2015-16.  But so far this winter in the NEUS, you add up all that has happened, it is much better than the last several.  Sure, some areas still are "holed" (like South Weymouth ), but one needs to look at the big pix.  I still think that 4/063 SOG at Mt Mansfield earlier this month, which was by far the most SOG so early for the location, is nothing to shake a stick at! 

If this kind of "subtle" winter pattern for snowfall events continues for the rest of the winter, it's going to turn out pretty good for many I think.
 

The good news is I think everyone here who is in line to potentially be impacted by the band has realistic expectations. I think there is solid agreement on the max swath somewhere in the 4-8/6-10 range. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I did yesteday and will be doing it today while taking a " dump "

Hopefully when you flush your phone goes down with it

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully when you flush your phone goes down with it

It did so I had to stick my hand in the toilet.

[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The good news is I think everyone here who is in line to potentially be impacted by the band has realistic expectations. I think there is solid agreement on the max swath somewhere in the 4-8/6-10 range. 

I was accounting for the snow ratios which should be 15:1 or more NYC N&E.  The RRFS and HRRR are in good agreement w/ a max 10-15" swath, just I said 12-18" accounting for "surprises" (don't underestimate FGEN!)

[Patrick-02540]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s should shift 50-75 miles NE and will be about right 

It will shift about 25 miles NE and put me under the jackpot. They always do.    

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

I was accounting for the snow ratios which should be 15:1 or more NYC N&E.  The RRFS and HRRR are in good agreement w/ a max 10-15" swath, just I said 12-18" accounting for "surprises" (don't underestimate FGEN!)

snow ratios are definitely going to be hefty under the banding...certainly upwards of 15:1, if not maybe even upwards of 18:1. Certainly leading to some potential that could even some 8-12" totals, even with the speed. The 10-15" I don't know about...those models were also pegging snowfall rates4-5"/hour. If that happened then we would see those totals I think but 4-5"/hr might be a bit high 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said:

It will shift about 25 miles NE and put me under the jackpot. They always do.    

 

The minute The NAM took sleet into and past NYC.. it was game time all points NE

[weatherwiz]

Interesting...advisory for Hartford County

[Typhoon Tip]

The track on this deal is as set as it can be.  Variances that occur are within noise/acceptable error and not really predetermined 

It's the amplitude and QPF verification that is in question 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The minute The NAM took sleet into and past NYC.. it was game time all points NE

What

[WinterSnow]

Hm... Bristol's forecast seems more in line with the Warning criteria, not Advisory, but I guess that's what I get for living on the far western end of Hartford county, the next county over is a Warning, while the bulk of Hartford county isn't predicted to get much.

Still, whether it's an Advisory or a Warning, forecasts are often wildly wrong and I'll be happy if we even get 3 inches, to be honest.

But if I can get that 6, that'd be great! It is my birthday storm, after all!

[UnitedWx]

33 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Take em up!

Some of the Facebook suspects certainly have...

[tavwtby]

ALY took em up over an inch since the 1245 update to warning.

[EastonSN+]

49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro coming in hot. Oh boy oh boy

I need it to stop here. Mix line getting closer.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What

NYC is going to get a lot of sleet . This NE push still not caught up on models 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NYC is going to get a lot of sleet . This NE push still not caught up on models 

Sad, but true. 

 

Mesos will be really fun starting tonight as they start showing the potential best banding and forcing, someone between the LHV and western CT will likely exceed 10". 

[EastonSN+]

Wsw for Fairfield County CT.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
119 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-260900-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0004.251226T2100Z-251227T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.251226T2100Z-251227T1800Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern
Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
119 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 
  8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of 
Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.

&&

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, WinterSnow said:

Hm... Bristol's forecast seems more in line with the Warning criteria, not Advisory, but I guess that's what I get for living on the far western end of Hartford county, the next county over is a Warning, while the bulk of Hartford county isn't predicted to get much.

Still, whether it's an Advisory or a Warning, forecasts are often wildly wrong and I'll be happy if we even get 3 inches, to be honest.

But if I can get that 6, that'd be great! It is my birthday storm, after all!

Happy Happy birthday 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Sad, but true. 

 

Mesos will be really fun starting tonight as they start showing the potential best banding and forcing, someone between the LHV and western CT will likely exceed 10". 

I hope the city can get a good deal of snow.. but I’ve been in this scenario where so many times thinking I was safe and gonna do well and ended up wearing a hard hat . It’s where the dumbfounded term originated on the board