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26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

Merry Christmas weenies

Go Kart Mozart
Go Kart Mozart

This storm is like a duck that has been shot in flight.  Erratic path, and will it have enough momentum to land in our back yards?  Or will it flop to earth somewhere to our west or south?

Go Kart Mozart
Go Kart Mozart

Fabulous GFS run, but it will be a shame if we get a foot and NEMA gets zero.  Moohaha, hahaha , HAHAHA!.    

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted

A little perspective for those complaining how "lousy" the pattern is (Re: CoastalWx LOL) and the upcoming event.

How often do you see a swath of 12-18" in the NEUS *not* from LES/OES/NORLUN and w/o any sig orographics from basically a weak clipper (pressure gets no lower than 1007 mb).  Find me one!

This will make two foot plus events in the NEUS in 3.5 days that impact high population areas.

W/ this upcoming event, it also shows how important strong Arctic high pressure to the N for sig snow.  Solid damning w/ low-level Arctic air in place is paramount. 

Everyone seems to look for that 960 mb superbomb that "drills for oil" off just off the coast, and don't realize that you can do well in a gradual, piecemeal fashion from more subtle events.  In other words, swinging for HRs all the time and ignoring singles and doubles is going to result in frustration/disappointment often.

I think many of us were spoiled from the epic period 1992-93 to 2015-16.  But so far this winter in the NEUS, you add up all that has happened, it is much better than the last several.  Sure, some areas still are "holed" (like South Weymouth :D), but one needs to look at the big pix.  I still think that 4/063 SOG at Mt Mansfield earlier this month, which was by far the most SOG so early for the location, is nothing to shake a stick at! 

If this kind of "subtle" winter pattern for snowfall events continues for the rest of the winter, it's going to turn out pretty good for many I think.
 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

A little perspective for those complaining how "lousy" the pattern is (Re: CoastalWx LOL) and the upcoming event.

How often do you see a swath of 12-18" in the NEUS *not* from LES/OES/NORLUN and w/o any sig orographics from basically a weak clipper (pressure gets no lower than 1007 mb).  Find me one!

This will make two foot plus events in the NEUS in 3.5 days that impact high population areas.

W/ this upcoming event, it also shows how important strong Arctic high pressure to the N for sig snow.  Solid damning w/ low-level Arctic air in place is paramount. 

Everyone seems to look for that 960 mb superbomb that "drills for oil" off just off the coast, and don't realize that you can do well in a gradual, piecemeal fashion from more subtle events.  In other words, swinging for HRs all the time and ignoring singles and doubles is going to result in frustration/disappointment often.

I think many of us were spoiled from the epic period 1992-93 to 2015-16.  But so far this winter in the NEUS, you add up all that has happened, it is much better than the last several.  Sure, some areas still are "holed" (like South Weymouth :D), but one needs to look at the big pix.  I still think that 4/063 SOG at Mt Mansfield earlier this month, which was by far the most SOG so early for the location, is nothing to shake a stick at! 

If this kind of "subtle" winter pattern for snowfall events continues for the rest of the winter, it's going to turn out pretty good for many I think.
 

The good news is I think everyone here who is in line to potentially be impacted by the band has realistic expectations. I think there is solid agreement on the max swath somewhere in the 4-8/6-10 range. 

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The good news is I think everyone here who is in line to potentially be impacted by the band has realistic expectations. I think there is solid agreement on the max swath somewhere in the 4-8/6-10 range. 

I was accounting for the snow ratios which should be 15:1 or more NYC N&E.  The RRFS and HRRR are in good agreement w/ a max 10-15" swath, just I said 12-18" accounting for "surprises" (don't underestimate FGEN!)

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

I was accounting for the snow ratios which should be 15:1 or more NYC N&E.  The RRFS and HRRR are in good agreement w/ a max 10-15" swath, just I said 12-18" accounting for "surprises" (don't underestimate FGEN!)

snow ratios are definitely going to be hefty under the banding...certainly upwards of 15:1, if not maybe even upwards of 18:1. Certainly leading to some potential that could even some 8-12" totals, even with the speed. The 10-15" I don't know about...those models were also pegging snowfall rates4-5"/hour. If that happened then we would see those totals I think but 4-5"/hr might be a bit high 

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WinterSnow

WinterSnow

Posted
Posted

Hm... Bristol's forecast seems more in line with the Warning criteria, not Advisory, but I guess that's what I get for living on the far western end of Hartford county, the next county over is a Warning, while the bulk of Hartford county isn't predicted to get much.

Still, whether it's an Advisory or a Warning, forecasts are often wildly wrong and I'll be happy if we even get 3 inches, to be honest.

But if I can get that 6, that'd be great! It is my birthday storm, after all!

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mob1

mob1

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NYC is going to get a lot of sleet . This NE push still not caught up on models 

Sad, but true. 

 

Mesos will be really fun starting tonight as they start showing the potential best banding and forcing, someone between the LHV and western CT will likely exceed 10". 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted

Wsw for Fairfield County CT. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
119 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-260900-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0004.251226T2100Z-251227T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.251226T2100Z-251227T1800Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern
Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
119 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 
  8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of 
Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.

&&
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, WinterSnow said:

Hm... Bristol's forecast seems more in line with the Warning criteria, not Advisory, but I guess that's what I get for living on the far western end of Hartford county, the next county over is a Warning, while the bulk of Hartford county isn't predicted to get much.

Still, whether it's an Advisory or a Warning, forecasts are often wildly wrong and I'll be happy if we even get 3 inches, to be honest.

But if I can get that 6, that'd be great! It is my birthday storm, after all!

Happy Happy birthday 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Sad, but true. 

 

Mesos will be really fun starting tonight as they start showing the potential best banding and forcing, someone between the LHV and western CT will likely exceed 10". 

I hope the city can get a good deal of snow.. but I’ve been in this scenario where so many times thinking I was safe and gonna do well and ended up wearing a hard hat . It’s where the dumbfounded term originated on the board 

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