Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[wthrmn654]

Winter storm warning updated,  to give eastern Suffolk county the biggest potential totals of 6-10 inches now lol. The irony of starting with no watch to this. 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

There’s often subsidence on either side of an intense band. The models show this. It doesn’t mean other areas can’t do well but the 8”+ zone is probably less than 50 miles wide.

Oh definitely if we are talking 8+ I agree and I agree with your general line although possibly even a bit further NE of there. This just won't be a scenario where someone gets 8 and 50 miles away gets almost nothing. 

[MJO812]

State of Emergency in effect for New Jersey

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Winter storm warning updated,  to give eastern Suffolk county the biggest potential totals of 6-10 inches now lol. The irony of starting with no watch to this. 

This storm setup has always favored places like Eastern LI especially the north shore of Suffolk given the sleet line coming from the SW usually creeps a bit more NE than modeled. 

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Oh definitely if we are talking 8+ I agree and I agree with your general line although possibly even a bit further NE of there. This just won't be a scenario where someone gets 8 and 50 miles away gets almost nothing. 

That absolutely will happen in NJ

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, psv88 said:

That absolutely will happen in NJ

True I meant from NYC and points north. Central NJ could have a brutal cutoff. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

19 and cloudy. Feels like snow. 

[Yanksfan]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

State of Emergency in effect for New Jersey

Meh. Lately New Jersey issues a state of emergency if someone farts in the wind.

[psv88]

Just now, Yanksfan said:

Meh. Lately New Jersey issues a state of emergency if someone farts in the wind.

Please not this debate again. Please. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Yanksfan said:

Meh. Lately New Jersey issues a state of emergency if someone farts in the wind.

takes away from the urgency of it when it's issued for the smallest of events

[psv88]

I’ll say this and then people need to stop. 
 

a state of emergency is declared to obtain funding for the event. That’s it. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Please not this debate again. Please. 

Its a holiday weekend. Nothing wrong with issuing one.

[Krs4Lfe]

NWS Mount Holly is rightfully bearish imo in Central and northern New Jersey. It's the time for nowcasting, so we'll be watching that sleet line move in real time, but I'm surprised NWS New York has 8" for Central Park out of this. Just not a typical situation

[Yanksfan]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Its a holiday weekend. Nothing wrong with issuing one.

Just messing with you guys to ease the tension of who gets what. Hopefully we get an over performer that makes everyone happy.

 

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NWS Mount Holly is rightfully bearish imo in Central and northern New Jersey. It's the time for nowcasting, so we'll be watching that sleet line move in real time, but I'm surprised NWS New York has 8" for Central Park out of this. Just not a typical situation

One factor in the citys favor here is it's cold before the storm and below freezing throughout the whole storm. I don't think CPK is getting 8 but its not a particularly bad setup for accumulation in the boroughs, the real question is rates and if and when it flips to sleet. 

[wthrmn654]

Much of NE NJ, NYC, and Long Island:

▪Total Snowfall: 5 to 9” likely, locally 11” possible. Highest amounts more likely across northern sections of NYC/NJ metro and central and eastern LI. Sleet may briefly mix in for areas south of I78 in NJ and south shore of NYC and western LI this evening.

▪Timing: Light snow may start as early as 3pm. Heavy snowfall between 6pm and 2am. Light snow late tonight into Saturday morning, tapering off by midday. ▪Peak Snowfall Rates: 1-2”/hrlikely for a 2-5 hrperiod between 6pm and 2am. Rates could briefly exceed 2”/hr, particularly across central-eastern LI.

▪Temperatures/Snow Character: Upper 20s to lower 30s. A dry and powdery snow to start, likely becoming wetter through the night. ▪Impacts: Difficult travel from intense snowfall rates, snow-covered roads and visibilities reduced down to ¼ mile at times, particularly between 6pm and 2am. Isolated downed tree branches and power outages possible due to snow load. 

[MJO812]

LoL Nam

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

LoL Nam

This is the worst case scenario, it's unlikely but it's been right with warm tounges before. Honestly im more worried about mixing in the in NYC and even the LHV than eastern LI in this setup so the NAM scenario wouldnt entirely shock me. 

[North and West]

State of Emergency in effect for New Jersey

They need a snowstorm protocol to put into effect; not everything requires State of Emergency declarations. There’s a reason the boy who cried wolf has guided civilization for millennia.


.

[North and West]

Please not this debate again. Please. 

Apologies; just saw this.


.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

This is the worst case scenario, it's unlikely but it's been right with warm tounges before. Honestly im more worried about mixing in the in NYC and even the LHV than eastern LI in this setup so the NAM scenario wouldnt entirely shock me. 

3k Nam is better

[psv88]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

3k Nam is better

The NAM is already wrong in northern PA

[coastalplainsnowman]

27 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Meh. Lately New Jersey issues a state of emergency if someone farts in the wind.

sorry about that

[Birds~69]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3k Nam is better

Screw models at this point. Follow radar trends, look out the window. It's real/now time...

[NJwx85]

Stop looking at the f*cking NAM.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

Screw models at this point. Follow radars trends, look out the window. It's real/now time...

Yep. I highly doubt northern westchester gets an inch of snow

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3k Nam is better

Hopefully BGM can fight off mixing. Probably a good sign down here if they can stay all snow. Further west around Elmira looks like they’re fighting back and forth. 

[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yep. I highly doubt northern westchester gets an inch of snow

Must be subsidence due to banding north and south of there but agree one inch is ridiculous. 

[psv88]

ride the CRAS

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Must be subsidence due to banding north and south of there but agree one inch is ridiculous. 

And it shows next to no snow west of BGM which is already wrong.