Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Krs4Lfe]

6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

ICON bumps north a bit - not a huge jump but noticeable 

Probably eyeing that warm nose as the low rushes into north Pa and Upstate New York. Would be all frozen precip for almost all of us, but a lot more sleet than it’s been showing 

[the_other_guy]

20 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Not worried, just discussing weather. I have no control over what happens, just have lived here long enough to know how this usually goes. 

I'm rooting for us harder than you can imagine, it's normal to be a bit pessimistic given overall trends. 

Brooklyn almost always goes to mix at the tail end of a storm when precip lightens. It has to be absolutely perfect for it not to happen. Southern most point along an Ocean and Bay in an UHI. Just geography and science at work.

[RU848789]

I think Lee Goldberg's is my favorite map so far, so I'll post it as my forecast, lol. I like that it's a little bit more aggressive than the NWS, which is now probably the low end of the predictions, but it's also below several others who have large 6-10"+ swaths which I think are too high. Lastly, time for my usual guess: I'll go with 6.1" vs. my NWS point and click of 5.7" and our advisory of only 3-5", which ought to be at least 3-6" for Middlesex County since there's a small 6"+ swath right near me in NE Middlesex Co.  

[MJO812]

Gfs is a big hit

[BoulderWX]

GFS looks to Hold serve at 00z

[MJO812]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

GFS looks to Hold serve at 00z

More qpf

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I think Lee Goldberg's is my favorite map so far, so I'll post it as my forecast, lol. I like that it's a little bit more aggressive than the NWS, which is now probably the low end of the predictions, but it's also below several others who have large 6-10"+ swaths which I think are too high. Lastly, time for my usual guess: I'll go with 6.1" vs. my NWS point and click of 5.7" and our advisory of only 3-5", which ought to be at least 3-6" for Middlesex County since there's a small 6"+ swath right near me in NE Middlesex Co.  

lee's pretty solid. i recommend him to the uneducated masses....news 12 guy is very good also.

[MJO812]

Gfs

[jm1220]

Obs and totals thread created.

[Stormlover74]

I will say I don't remember the last time the gfs was this consistent 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I will say I don't remember the last time the gfs was this consistent 

I dont either

Amazing consistency 

[eduggs]

GFS still looks good locally as depicted in terms of QPF. But it definitely shifted northeast with the mid-level lows. It now gets significant snow to ALB and HFD.  A day ago they were both on the fringe of the forecasted precip. shield. The HRRR (1z, 2z) also appears to be slowly ticking northeast aloft too. Need that to stop.

[eduggs]

On the GFS, PHL and EPA has been losing snow and CT, MA, and ENY have been gaining snow.

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

GFS still looks good locally as depicted in terms of QPF. But it definitely shifted northeast with the mid-level lows. It now gets significant snow to ALB and HFD.  A day ago they were both on the fringe of the forecasted precip. shield. The HRRR also appears to be slowly ticking northeast aloft too. Need that to stop.

It’s interesting became the GFS isn’t responding with a change in snow totals for most of us. The low is farther north but the sleet doesn’t get further north. You’d think with a low that far north, the sleet would get  past NYC. Maybe GFS is hinting at the snow being heavy enough to resist that mid level mixing. 

[SnoSki14]

Don't be surprised if the heaviest snows end up further south. That's a cold/dry airmass taking over our region. 

It's 28/9 by me right now. 

[mob1]

Canadian is really good as well. 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It’s interesting became the GFS isn’t responding with a change in snow totals for most of us. The low is farther north but the sleet doesn’t get further north. You’d think with a low that far north, the sleet would get  past NYC. Maybe GFS is hinting at the snow being heavy enough to resist that mid level mixing. 

Probably. We'll know the nature of this in the morning/early afternoon. If the heavy snow shield looks like it'll pound the city and Allentown gets a couple hours of good snow, that's a great sign for the city that they'll hit warning totals. If the heavy snow instead looks like it will overshoot the city and nail ALB to HFD, the city is dry in the meantime and Allentown starts right off as sleet when heavier precip finally gets there, NYC will likely underperform because the big WAA snow push is happening north of the city, warm air will get chances to advance aloft in shredded/crap precip and when it gets here it'll be too late. 

[eduggs]

Real early (probably premature) radar hallucination... but to my eye the radar looks pretty good tonight. Returns are turning sharply southward over Lake Huron and there's already a finger of reflectivity oriented NW to SE situated pretty far west relative to model guidance. Probably doesn't mean much at this point.

[SnowGoose69]

I mentioned 2/8/94 earlier for a different reason but this storm may resemble it in one way in that 80% of the accumulation may occur in the first 4 hours where some places might see 2 inch per hour rates at points.  After 9-10pm it could be very light spotty type stuff with even a chance of some mixing in areas that largely stayed N of the mix line during the peak of the event.

[eduggs]

The RRFS has snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour tomorrow night (assuming 10:1). The heavy snow only lasts an hour or two on the model, but it would be fun. Other models have a burst of heavy snow as well though mostly 1-2" per hour max.

[Stormlover74]

Hrdps

[WEATHER53]

Looks like you all do good with this so that’s great for Holiday time.  My grand children are old enough to sled finally and Santa delivered, You all have fun with yours!

[Stormlover74]

Ukie bumped north

[Stormlover74]

Good map

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Good map

Lowest map i have seen so far.  

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Good map

I actually think BGM is more likely to mix with sleet than western LI as crazy as that sounds... because of the track of the 700mb low. Otherwise I agree, good map.