Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,430
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    JowanKleudh
    Newest Member
    JowanKleudh
    Joined

Snow Potential Dec 26-27


WeatherGeek2025
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

ICON bumps north a bit - not a huge jump but noticeable 

Probably eyeing that warm nose as the low rushes into north Pa and Upstate New York. Would be all frozen precip for almost all of us, but a lot more sleet than it’s been showing 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Not worried, just discussing weather. I have no control over what happens, just have lived here long enough to know how this usually goes. 

I'm rooting for us harder than you can imagine, it's normal to be a bit pessimistic given overall trends. 

Brooklyn almost always goes to mix at the tail end of a storm when precip lightens. It has to be absolutely perfect for it not to happen. Southern most point along an Ocean and Bay in an UHI. Just geography and science at work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Lee Goldberg's is my favorite map so far, so I'll post it as my forecast, lol. I like that it's a little bit more aggressive than the NWS, which is now probably the low end of the predictions, but it's also below several others who have large 6-10"+ swaths which I think are too high. Lastly, time for my usual guess: I'll go with 6.1" vs. my NWS point and click of 5.7" and our advisory of only 3-5", which ought to be at least 3-6" for Middlesex County since there's a small 6"+ swath right near me in NE Middlesex Co.  

1766702283391.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I think Lee Goldberg's is my favorite map so far, so I'll post it as my forecast, lol. I like that it's a little bit more aggressive than the NWS, which is now probably the low end of the predictions, but it's also below several others who have large 6-10"+ swaths which I think are too high. Lastly, time for my usual guess: I'll go with 6.1" vs. my NWS point and click of 5.7" and our advisory of only 3-5", which ought to be at least 3-6" for Middlesex County since there's a small 6"+ swath right near me in NE Middlesex Co.  

1766702283391.png

lee's pretty solid. i recommend him to the uneducated masses....news 12 guy is very good also.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS still looks good locally as depicted in terms of QPF. But it definitely shifted northeast with the mid-level lows. It now gets significant snow to ALB and HFD.  A day ago they were both on the fringe of the forecasted precip. shield. The HRRR (1z, 2z) also appears to be slowly ticking northeast aloft too. Need that to stop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

GFS still looks good locally as depicted in terms of QPF. But it definitely shifted northeast with the mid-level lows. It now gets significant snow to ALB and HFD.  A day ago they were both on the fringe of the forecasted precip. shield. The HRRR also appears to be slowly ticking northeast aloft too. Need that to stop.

It’s interesting became the GFS isn’t responding with a change in snow totals for most of us. The low is farther north but the sleet doesn’t get further north. You’d think with a low that far north, the sleet would get  past NYC. Maybe GFS is hinting at the snow being heavy enough to resist that mid level mixing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It’s interesting became the GFS isn’t responding with a change in snow totals for most of us. The low is farther north but the sleet doesn’t get further north. You’d think with a low that far north, the sleet would get  past NYC. Maybe GFS is hinting at the snow being heavy enough to resist that mid level mixing. 

Probably. We'll know the nature of this in the morning/early afternoon. If the heavy snow shield looks like it'll pound the city and Allentown gets a couple hours of good snow, that's a great sign for the city that they'll hit warning totals. If the heavy snow instead looks like it will overshoot the city and nail ALB to HFD, the city is dry in the meantime and Allentown starts right off as sleet when heavier precip finally gets there, NYC will likely underperform because the big WAA snow push is happening north of the city, warm air will get chances to advance aloft in shredded/crap precip and when it gets here it'll be too late. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Real early (probably premature) radar hallucination... but to my eye the radar looks pretty good tonight. Returns are turning sharply southward over Lake Huron and there's already a finger of reflectivity oriented NW to SE situated pretty far west relative to model guidance. Probably doesn't mean much at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mentioned 2/8/94 earlier for a different reason but this storm may resemble it in one way in that 80% of the accumulation may occur in the first 4 hours where some places might see 2 inch per hour rates at points.  After 9-10pm it could be very light spotty type stuff with even a chance of some mixing in areas that largely stayed N of the mix line during the peak of the event.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...