Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[donsutherland1]

Through the early 12z guidance, my thinking that the New York City area remains in line for a  4"–8" snowfall has remained unchanged. The snow could still end as a period of sleet and/or freezing rain. The quality models such as the ECMWF, GFS, RGEM, along with the GEFS/EPS ensembles, provided reasonably consistent guidance overnight. 

The NAM, after flirting with the idea that NYC might see little to no snow in a bid to out-grinch the Grinch finally woke up, rubbed its digital eyes, and acknowledged the realities of the pattern and the evolving synoptic details. Its prior solution was disregarded, as virtually every EPS and GEFS ensemble member disagreed with its stingy snowfall total. Thus, the NAM had been offering an unrealistic scenario. After all, if what it was offering was realistic, at least some of the ensemble members would have provided support.

For reference, New York City's last 6" or above snowfall occurred on January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell from a blizzard that crushed parts of Long Island under more than two feet of snow.

[coastalplainsnowman]

39 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you still get a lot of sleet

sorry this is happening to you

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

26 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

White Christmas here. It's been a few years. Merry Christmas all !

We had 4-5 inches on the ground last Christmas. Not in Sussex?

[MJO812]

Icon

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon

Steady as she goes, very nice qpf again.  If we can eek out 0.6-0.8 qpf gonna be some 8-12 inches totals me think. 

[mob1]

ICON and RGEM with minor shifts NE, I'd love to see future runs reverse that by a bit. 

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We had 4-5 inches on the ground last Christmas. Not in Sussex?

I don't think so last year? 

[EastonSN+]

RGEM. Yes a bit NE of previous run

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

RGEM. Yes a bit NE of previous run

Noise

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

ICON and RGEM with minor shifts NE, I'd love to see future runs reverse that by a bit. 

Yeah both nudges NE while the NAM moved SW. Perhaps a convergence. Lets see if the EURO and GFS hold.

[cleetussnow]

43 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you still get a lot of sleet

When did the NAM become your go-to model?  And which run are you gagging on?  It caved with a wild swing as plain as day.  Your red tag is not a license to troll.  Although it seems that way.  

Why don’t you and Greta snuggle up to a good murder book and sit this one out.  Snowman and qq are on their way over with a six pack so make room for them.  
 

Merry Christmas
Holy Shit

 

[cleetussnow]

54 minutes ago, snywx said:

Who is shocked by that? 

Uh Forky is 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RRFS finally on board whats a 250 mile multi run shift amongst drunk brothers 

RRFS from the NE forum.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

When did the NAM become your go-to model?  And which run are you gagging on?  It caved with a wild swing as plain as day.  Your red tag is not a license to troll.  Although it seems that way.  

Why don’t you and Greta snuggle up to a good murder book and sit this one out.  Snowman and qq are on their way over with a six pack so make room for them.  
 

Merry Christmas
Holy Shit

 

this is funny lol. however,  forky is not a troll; if he says its gonna snow, it usually does. if he thinks there's a lot of sleet, there probably will be. i'm no met or even close, but whenever i hear waa....i hold my expectations; seen an all out 2 foot blizzard forecast turn into all sleet before. and when i saw all this 4-8 talk on tuesday, i was like damn, guys, this is way too early to bank on that....let's hope for 3-4 with some sleet and be happy in the metro; it's probably not our storm, but do we need 10-12 to be happy these days? i think not....

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

RRFS from the NE forum.

so why did the powers that be start with all the watches two days in advance? to sell shovels? this storm is getting away from us. will keep an eye out, no idea if that model is any good, but even early this morning i sensed a hummina hummina from mt holly.....no idea what will happen, but seems to be the usual suspects here on one side or the other. will wait for consensus....which will come down to, wait for it....nowcasting! everyone enjoy the holiday. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

this is funny lol. however,  forky is not a troll; if he says its gonna snow, it usually does. if he thinks there's a lot of sleet, there probably will be. i'm no met or even close, but whenever i hear waa....i hold my expectations; seen an all out 2 foot blizzard forecast turn into all sleet before. and when i saw all this 4-8 talk on tuesday, i was like damn, guys, this is way too early to bank on that....let's hope for 3-4 with some sleet and be happy in the metro; it's probably not our storm, but do we need 10-12 to be happy these days? i think not....

My problem with Forky is not his skill but his communication. Why cant he just state what he thinks is going to happen.

Will Brooklyn see 2 inches before a lot of sleet?

Will the bronx be mostly snow with CPK in 4 inches before the change?

Just stating "NAM sniffs out warm layer" and "you will get a lot of sleet" to MJO is not that helpful.

Don does a great Job in articulating his thoughts. Wish Forky would do the same.

[Stormlover74]

As expected the dividing line has edged from Philly to Trenton to now near somerville. That sleet line will almost always make it to 78. It will come down to front end thump and if we can manage 4 to 5 before the pinging. Even 3 gets me to double digits for the winter so I'd be happy 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

to be fair, its been more than one model and more than one model nest. The issue is they ran with really high amounts early on, not sure why they started out at 5-8 

bingo. it was too early for that. but local jersey forecast this morning was, on media, 2-4 of snow sleet and even rain....no idea how good that is, and they change a lot.

[mob1]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

RRFS from the NE forum.

Crazy swings 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

As expected the dividing line has edged from Philly to Trenton to now near somerville. That sleet line will almost always make it to 78. It will come down to front end thump and if we can manage 4 to 5 before the pinging. Even 3 gets me to double digits for the winter so I'd be happy 

that would be ok imho. my experience is the pinging starts too soon, it's rare to get a lot before it happens; but we do see it at times.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

bingo. it was too early for that. nut local jersey forecast this morning was, on media, 2-4 of snow sleet and even rain....no idea how good that is, and they change a lot.

That's why it's a watch. You put them out 48 hours in advance when 6+ looks likely. Which it did. There's no reason it can't be adjusted to an advisory. 

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

As expected the dividing line has edged from Philly to Trenton to now near somerville. That sleet line will almost always make it to 78. It will come down to front end thump and if we can manage 4 to 5 before the pinging. Even 3 gets me to double digits for the winter so I'd be happy 

I'm at 7.2" so double digits in December would be awesome. Central Park should still pull 4-5 but we'll see how things trend over the next few cycles. 

[BoulderWX]

I’m more worried about QPF more than the temperature profile for my area. It’s a very thin band of heavier precip on almost all models - and rates will play a factor with marginal temps. 3-6” is my final call for MBY and much of the NYC metro. 

[psv88]

24 hours to first flakes for some on here and the American mesos all over the place. NYC northwest, north and northeast in line for a solid snowstorm. 
 

South of nyc is on the bubble. Probably a sleet storm up to Monmouth after some snow. I think the city and points north and east stay all snow 

[snywx]

We can potentially close December with 25”+ up this way. Can’t remember the last time that happened 

[mob1]

LHV should do very well

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM bufkit is out!

So far looked at a couple locations (Waterbury and New Haven with New Haven shown below). 

Beautiful crosshair signature for a good 3 hours. But note...the duration of the snow, particularly the heaviest snow is going to be short lived. This is something that is going to cut back on the upper ceiling with this. It could really be difficult to pull off more than 6-7" but there are many factors to consider here. NAM bufkit even looks solid through Hartford. But it should be stressed that this is solely tied into the banding...meaning if you are not under the banding, its probably going to suck and may be difficult to accumulate more than a few inches (though most should be happy with that).

From NE forum. Great explanation on bandingeven though for up here.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

24 hours to first flakes for some on here and the American mesos all over the place. NYC northwest, north and northeast in line for a solid snowstorm. 
 

South of nyc is on the bubble. Probably a sleet storm up to Monmouth after some snow. I think the city and points north and east stay all snow 

Its one of those storms where parts of Monmouth and li will do better than western nj where they'll mix sooner

[psv88]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

From NE forum. Great explanation on bandingeven though for up here.

Yea that doesn’t really apply further south. Mainly for central CT. I’m highly confident that most on here see a nice 3-6” snowfall. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

oh not a fan of his

i don't even pay attention to him.