Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[WeatherGeek2025]

37 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

But that's probably sleet along the Mason-Dixon.

yeah south of say Trenton I think that's all sleet freezing rain and rain

[Stormlover74]

Euro is still fairly light precip. 2 to 4" for most

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

the real map considering this would be below freezing for everybody! 

 

That's at least half sleet south of Rt. 78. Put that 6" line from Rt. 80 in northern Jersey, NYC, and mostly all of Long Island. As of right now. Things will almost certainly change a bit by Friday.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's at least half sleet south of Rt. 78. Put that 6" line from Rt. 80 in northern Jersey, NYC, and mostly all of Long Island. As of right now. Things will almost certainly change a bit by Friday.

Not saying its right but gfs is all snow north of ttn

[SnowGoose69]

RRFS is a squashed mess at 84, looks like if you extrapolate it we'd barely get a thing.  That said, it was a squashed mess at 84 with today's system too.  Maybe a bias of the model?  Will have to see where we are in 3 days but its interesting to see it do the same.  If we want to take its idea as gospel and assume same thing happens, something exactly like the Euro would happen.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not saying its right but gfs is all snow north of ttn

This is where you have to look at soundings and the mid level low tracks-700 and 850. If those lows go north of you you’re essentially guaranteed to mix and there will definitely be a warm nose somewhere with a system like this and sleetfest zone. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

This is where you have to look at soundings and the mid level low tracks-700 and 850. If those lows go north of you you’re essentially guaranteed to mix and there will definitely be a warm nose somewhere with a system like this and sleetfest zone. 

Most likely yes. Nam will sniff this out as we get closer (only thing its useful for)

[SnowGoose69]

Some similarities to 1/6/89 with this storm.  Produced about 4-7 inches across the area in a -PNA pattern.  BDL/BOS/PVD all got shutout.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0106.php

[BoulderWX]

Feeling good about a 2-4”+ event; would round out December nicely after picking up 2-3” this am

[MJO812]

Eps is nice. Several inches for the coast and nw areas.

[RU848789]

There are always things to worry about 3+ days out, but this is about as good as it gets for the EPA-NJ-NYC-LI region with regard to model consensus (at the surface). 2-4" shown by all the major globals (Euro, AIFS, GFS, CMC, and UK at least) with potential for 4-7" shown by the AIFS, and GFS (and the others in spots) seems like a good guess right now. I do worry a little about the possibility of a changeover to rain as seen on the CMC up through Philly and SNJ keeping accumulations way down and that possibly even moving further north into CNJ, but that's quibbling...

[NEG NAO]

What's up with Upton - the forecast says little or no snow accumulation for NYC   BUT the discussion says chances of accumulating snow are increasing ?

ZFP from KOKX

[WeatherGeek2025]

Nam looks decent still going strong 84 hours

 

a bit too south if you ask me

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Nam looks decent still going strong 84 hours

 

a bit too south if you ask me

a low is showing up near hatteras ????

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Some similarities to 1/6/89 with this storm.  Produced about 4-7 inches across the area in a -PNA pattern.  BDL/BOS/PVD all got shutout.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0106.php

there was no snow in central jersey for that one iirc......it was mainly south. or was that feb? in any case, there was no significant snow as it was my second year teaching and the only snow day we had was for the snowless wonder that winter where not a single flake fell.....i did not get my first actual snow day until the super storm of 93, but that's partly because the board in elisabeth were a bunch idiots. in 89 actually i was in jackson, where everyone was bussed so they called school   ' on the 7th snowflake ' or as i noted, merely the threat of snow.....biggest bust until march 2001....

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

There are always things to worry about 3+ days out, but this is about as good as it gets for the EPA-NJ-NYC-LI region with regard to model consensus (at the surface). 2-4" shown by all the major globals (Euro, AIFS, GFS, CMC, and UK at least) with potential for 4-7" shown by the AIFS, and GFS (and the others in spots) seems like a good guess right now. I do worry a little about the possibility of a changeover to rain as seen on the CMC up through Philly and SNJ keeping accumulations way down and that possibly even moving further north into CNJ, but that's quibbling...

it was supposed to be a rather meh winter, but just on what i've seen so far, it's looking ok...la nina, pacific jet, whatever, but better than 4 inches in new brunswick in mid dec is usually a good signal, albeit a small sample over time.....

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

there was no snow in central jersey for that one iirc......it was mainly south. or was that feb? in any case, there was no significant snow as it was my second year teaching and the only snow day we had was for the snowless wonder that winter where not a single flake fell.....i did not get my first actual snow day until the super storm of 93, but that's partly because the board in elisabeth were a bunch idiots. in 89 actually i was in jackson, where everyone was bussed so they called school   ' on the 7th snowflake ' or as i noted, merely the threat of snow.....biggest bust until march 2001....

TTN had only 3.5, if I remember right it began snowing around 12-1 and was a Friday so it’s likely nobody bothered to close.  I do believe it overperformed forecasts too.  

[weatherpruf]

19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

What's up with Upton - the forecast says little or no snow accumulation for NYC   BUT the discussion says chances of accumulating snow are increasing ?

ZFP from KOKX

well someone got the word....shovels were flying off the shelves in costco this afternoon.... ' half a pallet left ' the worker told me....

[weatherpruf]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

TTN had only 3.5, if I remember right it began snowing around 12-1 and was a Friday so it’s likely nobody bothered to close.  I do believe it overperformed forecasts too.  

i seem to remember one around thanksgiving that year; thought it would be a blockbuster winter, which we had not had in 5 years by then.....

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

there was no snow in central jersey for that one iirc......it was mainly south. or was that feb? in any case, there was no significant snow as it was my second year teaching and the only snow day we had was for the snowless wonder that winter where not a single flake fell.....i did not get my first actual snow day until the super storm of 93, but that's partly because the board in elisabeth were a bunch idiots. 

Jan was the only snowfall that year. Had around 4-5". The late Feb storm busted and crushed AC and va beach 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem would be a nice thump before any mixing

[nycwinter]

lee goldberg had 3-6 inches for nyc in friday/saturday storm

[MJO812]

AI gfs is further south. Almost a scraper.

Gfs is north. Nice hit.

[Roger Smith]

I suspect there will be a convergence zone near the 28F isotherm in n/c NJ with enhanced totals similar to that event last winter (?) (or was it two winters back now?) ... 3 to 6 inches might be a good general forecast with this narrow band of 8 to 12 inches possibly somewhere like Long Branch - Sayreville-NB-Somerville NJ. 

That convergence zone would represent the southern boundary of unmodified arctic air, a second boundary further south would limit the mixed precip zone across parts of central NJ and e PA. That one would likely run through n DE and ne MD into the PA/MD border region. These two frontal zones would both likely stall for several hours then drift south near end of event, so mixing north of the strong convergence zone might be negligible. 

[MJO812]

Euro AI ticked north 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI ticked north 

We needed that.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

We needed that.

Looks really good for ny metro. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We needed that.

Euro beefed up amounts