Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[WeatherGeek2025]

37 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

But that's probably sleet along the Mason-Dixon.

yeah south of say Trenton I think that's all sleet freezing rain and rain

[Stormlover74]

Euro is still fairly light precip. 2 to 4" for most

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

the real map considering this would be below freezing for everybody! 

 

That's at least half sleet south of Rt. 78. Put that 6" line from Rt. 80 in northern Jersey, NYC, and mostly all of Long Island. As of right now. Things will almost certainly change a bit by Friday.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's at least half sleet south of Rt. 78. Put that 6" line from Rt. 80 in northern Jersey, NYC, and mostly all of Long Island. As of right now. Things will almost certainly change a bit by Friday.

Not saying its right but gfs is all snow north of ttn

[SnowGoose69]

RRFS is a squashed mess at 84, looks like if you extrapolate it we'd barely get a thing.  That said, it was a squashed mess at 84 with today's system too.  Maybe a bias of the model?  Will have to see where we are in 3 days but its interesting to see it do the same.  If we want to take its idea as gospel and assume same thing happens, something exactly like the Euro would happen.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not saying its right but gfs is all snow north of ttn

This is where you have to look at soundings and the mid level low tracks-700 and 850. If those lows go north of you you’re essentially guaranteed to mix and there will definitely be a warm nose somewhere with a system like this and sleetfest zone. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

This is where you have to look at soundings and the mid level low tracks-700 and 850. If those lows go north of you you’re essentially guaranteed to mix and there will definitely be a warm nose somewhere with a system like this and sleetfest zone. 

Most likely yes. Nam will sniff this out as we get closer (only thing its useful for)

[SnowGoose69]

Some similarities to 1/6/89 with this storm.  Produced about 4-7 inches across the area in a -PNA pattern.  BDL/BOS/PVD all got shutout.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0106.php

[BoulderWX]

Feeling good about a 2-4”+ event; would round out December nicely after picking up 2-3” this am

[MJO812]

Eps is nice. Several inches for the coast and nw areas.

[RU848789]

There are always things to worry about 3+ days out, but this is about as good as it gets for the EPA-NJ-NYC-LI region with regard to model consensus (at the surface). 2-4" shown by all the major globals (Euro, AIFS, GFS, CMC, and UK at least) with potential for 4-7" shown by the AIFS, and GFS (and the others in spots) seems like a good guess right now. I do worry a little about the possibility of a changeover to rain as seen on the CMC up through Philly and SNJ keeping accumulations way down and that possibly even moving further north into CNJ, but that's quibbling...