White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[WinterWolf]

I guess we wait for 12z lol. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS and EURO are worlds apart.. Euro now colder than GFS, GFS torches us on Wednesday 40-45.. Pretty frustrating differences. .GFS mostly misses with the main band, then swings the trough through later Tuesday into Wednesday but it's pretty warm by then.. 

I feel like that’s been one of the themes of the season so far. Hard to get consensus at short range. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess we wait for 12z lol. 

And then 18z, followed by 00z, rinse and repeat.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I feel like that’s been one of the themes of the season so far. Hard to get consensus at short range. 

Yes, although last storm I feel like was the easiest forecast ever.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This looks like it has for days . 1-5” SE to NW.. most in hills especially Berks . Nothing has really changed 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks like it has for days . 1-5” SE to NW.. most in hills especially Berks . Nothing has really changed 

No need to overthink honestly. Only variable left is if any inverted trough comes more into play and where that ends up impacting.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yes, although last storm I feel like was the easiest forecast ever.. 

The cutter? Slam dunk on a 6 ft rim.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

No need to overthink honestly. Only variable left is if any inverted trough comes more into play and where that ends up impacting.

That’s really the only unknown . Models are in agreement overall . Unless one was using the gfs 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I feel like that’s been one of the themes of the season so far. Hard to get consensus at short range. 

Yes, just said that a bit ago…waffling up to the day before it seems. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The cutter? Slam dunk on a 6 ft rim.  

Lol ya that too! I was thinking last Sunday storm

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol ya that too! I was thinking last Sunday storm

That thing waffled to up to the day before though on modeling…then it kind of juiced up some the last 24 hrs. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

That thing waffled to up to the day before though on modeling…then it kind of juiced up some the hast 24 hrs. 

Ya i was just thinking the last 60 hours.. That one was easy..

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya i was just thinking the last 60 hours.. That one was easy..

Let’s hope the Euro makes Boxing Day easy…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Let’s hope the Euro makes Boxing Day easy…

Please do

[Kitz Craver]

0z Euro and 6z GFS were both quite paltry for SNE. Like 1” maybe? Gonna need a trend reversal for 12z

[dryslot]

No changes.

[MJO812]

Nam is further south but nice 

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is further south but nice 

It will be so nice to have some snow OTG if it works out.  I have relatives coming up from Florida.  They are in their 60s- it will be the first time they experienced Christmas outside of Florida.  Hoping this works out.  

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is further south but nice 

Icon is also coming in further south. Bolds well for SNE.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon is also coming in further south. Bolds well for SNE.

It does? Looks like icon confines accumulation to SW CT

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

WTF are you talking about Bob?  This is a f’n weather forum.  I want to talk about weather. If T Blizz wants to keep being a negative fool…I have no time for that. If it sucks, fine.  But if there are some positives, before verification, then it needs to be pointed out.  
 

I don’t come here for mental health…if you do, and he does, I’m sorry.  

You don’t want to talk about the weather. You want to talk about snow and positive outcomes. That’s not the weather we’re experiencing, or have experienced the last half decade. I have no time for the all snow all the time crew, who ignore mountains of evidence of a bad snow regime pinning hopes to a needle in the haystack solution.

Period.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It does? Looks like icon confines accumulation to SW CT

Its becoming weaker on the models

[ORH_wxman]

Aside from outliers, this has basically been a 1-3/2-4 type event for much of interior SNE for a couple days now. There’s still some uncertainty on whether a little norlun/IVT can develop but my money would be downeast or mid-coast Maine for that. But it’s possible it could sneak down to north shore area too. 

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You don’t want to talk about the weather. You want to talk about snow and positive outcomes. That’s not the weather we’re experiencing, or have experienced the last half decade. I have no time for the all snow all the time crew, who ignore mountains of evidence of a bad snow regime pinning hopes to a needle in the haystack solution.

Period.

In his defense, he’s also been pretty relentless in talking about how the awful 80s may be comparable to now. He may lean on uncertainty being an avenue to optimism and I can see how that would wear some people out, but preordaining every complex or suboptimal setup as evolving into the worst case scenario or announcing that your hand is firmly on the plug and you’re ready to pull after every model cycle ain’t it either. 

It’s a bad snow regime. I think 95% of the subforum understands that. But that does not mean that every chance this season must also be a disaster in waiting, even if some actually are in our backyards.

You’ve been around long enough to know that our climo skews toward smaller messy events far more than it does 6-12” or even 4-8” ones, especially in your region. If you want people to be as frustrated and despondent as you are, flash the canines and say it. Wolfe does it unapologetically.  

[WxWatcher007]

Back to wx. It’s definitely tenuous for coastal areas, but you can see how a slightly more robust system is very good for much of the subforum being in striking distance of a widespread 2-4” event. I’d still lean 1-3” generally given the track and possibility we can’t amplify this to its ceiling, but still solid minor snow in advance of the holiday. 

[WxWatcher007]

With apologies to the NNE crew (but note up near PWM)

06z

 

12z

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

With apologies to the NNE crew (but note up near PWM)

06z

 

12z

Well... That looks a lot better as far as precipitation amounts for most ( although interior SE Mass seems to have stayed the same )

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well... That looks a lot better as far as precipitation amounts for most ( although interior SE Mass seems to have stayed the same )

Still have to watch for some warmth but yeah, not bad for CT.

[weatherwiz]

There should be some decent frontogenesis that crosses the region. Still have a quite a bit to iron out with the details but there should be a sizable swath of 1-3 inches. Def some concerns with boundary layer temps in some spots, but that won't be much of a concern if we get a decent precip. shield and a far enough south track.

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

With apologies to the NNE crew (but note up near PWM)

06z

 

12z

That’s not too shabby for CT…1-3” would be cool. Especially the timing of it being very close to Xmas.