Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z High res short range Canadian HRDPS has the inverted trough band right in the west shore of Harrisburg really close to RT. 15

It shows 5 inches for Harrisburg by tomorrow morning.

And that's what those of us east of the river fear, as it likely leaves us in a subsidence zone.  Our totals over here are going to be dependent on the reach and duration of the coastal.  That hole over Lancaster has been showing up pretty consistently though.

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z High res short range Canadian HRDPS has the inverted trough band right in the west shore of Harrisburg really close to RT. 15

It shows 5 inches for Harrisburg by tomorrow morning.

Funny thing is that despite what almost was…5” is a nice event no matter. I set my bar at 12”. I’m now adjusting down to 4-6”.
I’ll take that any and every day no matter what the models said coulda happened. 

[mahantango#1]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z High res short range Canadian HRDPS has the inverted trough band right in the west shore of Harrisburg really close to RT. 15

It shows 5 inches for Harrisburg by tomorrow morning.

And of course looks like I'll miss it by about 15 miles or so.

[canderson]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Funny thing is that despite what almost was…5” is a nice event no matter. I set my bar at 12”. I’m now adjusting down to 4-6”.
I’ll take that any and every day no matter what the models said coulda happened. 

I predict 2.9” for Harrisburg and sticking with it (even though CTP says I get less). If it’s less, oh well on to Tuesday’s clipper. If it’s more, awesome.  

[pasnownut]

I guess my liver thanks today’s events as I thought I’d be day drinking once things got going,  but decided to wait till we flipped. I’m too old and smart to power drink to “catch up”, so  I now have nice winter ambience on YouTube and just poured first cocktail. Time to enjoy. 

[pasnownut]

Oh and ground caving has commenced. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Oh and ground caving has commenced. 

Literally seeing my first flakes now. Temp is 35.4.

[Itstrainingtime]

Mt. Holly's latest map shows 11" in Reading and 1" in Harrisburg. Brutal.

[canderson]

Back to mod rain for me 

[lazywxwatcher]

Down to 33 here, ground caving

[Voyager]

23 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

And that's what those of us east of the river fear, as it likely leaves us in a subsidence zone.  Our totals over here are going to be dependent on the reach and duration of the coastal.  That hole over Lancaster has been showing up pretty consistently though.

I've probably been in more subsidence zones and dry slots in my 25 years here than the blockbusters that have hit the Mid Atlantic, Philly, and NYC forums. Most of the big dogs over the years have jackpotted south and/or east of here.

I can't remember which year and storm it was, but everyone got hit except here and north. I watched wave after wave of heavy snow charge north on radar, only to hit the dry air north of the Blue Mountain and evaporate it into pixie dust. And I vividly remember the posts talking of puking snow coming from all the forums, including this one.

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Mt. Holly's latest map shows 11" in Reading and 1" in Harrisburg. Brutal.

CTP just downgraded the warning further 

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 8
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill, and York Counties.

 

[Voyager]

Just now, canderson said:

CTP just downgraded the warning further 

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 8
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill, and York Counties.

 

Sheesh...

[SnowPlowGuy88]

33 degrees with Mod snow, non paved surfaces caving in Dillsburg. Second time today to see accumulated snow. Had some nice pre dawn snow that coated even the patio with a wet dusting, more on the grassy areas. All that melted away and the un paved areas are caving again. 

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Sheesh...

I never thankfully expected anything much here. My 2.9” prediction seems overzealous unfortunately unless short range models are all bunk.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Temp down to 33 with steady snow.  All non-paved surfaces finally starting to cave.  The big story of the storm is wasted qpf.  We talked in the days leading up about inefficient accumulation with these temps and that has certainly played out, and then some.  With that said, these next few hours is the business and will tell our story.

[Voyager]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

I never thankfully expected anything much here. My 2.9” prediction seems overzealous unfortunately unless short range models are all bunk.

Yeah, you were pretty steady all along. I got sucked in when the short term mesos started putting out big numbers even up here. I should have known it would be a recipe for disappointment.

[Jns2183]

Im trying to understand why people always defend the models I dont question your right to be here. I have every right to be here I dont attack any one like ive been attacked by some. I go after how bad the models are over the years and say we deserve better. no one can ever give me a honest answer how accurate the models are. the only helpful reply I once got is they dont really track or have a website for that.

The models for this storm have actually been pretty damn stellar. But if your basing succes and failure on 3rd order effects you are going to be frustrated. Basing the 'success' of a model on one snowfall map is like saying a GPS is broken because it didn't predict a 5-minute traffic jam at a specific light. The models have been remarkably consistent on the storm's track and energy. Snow totals are just the final, most volatile output of a massive equation involving ratios and column saturation. If the physics are right, the model is doing its job—the fluff factor is just the 'noise' at the end.". You have a situation where the big models have a 12km resolution and the hi res ones 3km. The median displacement forecast error is approximately 40 miles for HRRR and almost twice that for global. Think what that means in this situation. It isn't even a a unique feature to the storm every big nor'easter has the same fundamental physics in play. It was never a question of whether there would be a subsistence zone, only where

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[Yardstickgozinya]

Snow recommenced here 5:15PM

[canderson]

It’s snowing all around the 81 corridor ( seems to be 20 miles out from either side) but not along 81 from the Turnpike north. We have an answer on where the subsistence zone will sit. 

[lazywxwatcher]

16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Temp down to 33 with steady snow.  All non-paved surfaces finally starting to cave.  The big story of the storm is wasted qpf.  We talked in the days leading up about inefficient accumulation with these temps and that has certainly played out, and then some.  With that said, these next few hours is the business and will tell our story.

Same here near Leola.  33, ground white, roads caving.  I agree, the western extent of the coastal and interaction with and location of the IVT will tell the tale here.  Good rates here now.  Could be 3-12" just across the county depending on how it plays out.  Impossible to forecast this exactly ahead of time.  

[anotherman]

Moderate snow in southern York County. Roads just wet.

[Yardstickgozinya]

37 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I guess my liver thanks today’s events as I thought I’d be day drinking once things got going,  but decided to wait till we flipped. I’m too old and smart to power drink to “catch up”, so  I now have nice winter ambience on YouTube and just poured first cocktail. Time to enjoy. 

I'm getting ready for another night of fun at the moment.  I'm  also well  on my way of getting completely inebriated on both legal and illegal substances.  I'm not joking either , It's gonna be a fun night regardless. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

Biggest forecast fuck up I've seen for my town in a long long time. Went from 6-12 inches down to 5-8 inches and now 2-5 inches and still rain so far. At least others are making out well lol

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Accumulation efficiency still an issue here as I've been snowing steadily, even heavily at times, for over an hour and still only have a quarter inch.  Temp has finally dropped to 32 so that should help.  It looks great on the trees though ha. 

[anotherman]

Cartopper!

[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle just before 6:00pm...light to almost moderate snow is falling.  The changeover took place about an hour ago.  At that point I measured the total qpf which was mostly rain with some melting snow and measured 0.30".  An additional 0.16" had fallen during this afternoon.  Now my gauge is empty and we're starting over from the beginning.  There is now 0.1" of new snow on the board which brings the storm total to 0.2" (lol)!  The temperature has dropped to 32.5 degrees which definitely accelerated the accumulating process.  More to come in another hour...

>>Correction to my ob...it is now snowing moderately with decent sized flakes, and I now have 0.3" of new snow on the board which increases my storm total to 0.4".  I'm wondering if Mr. Norlun is going to pay me a visit???

[HBGCPA10]

27 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s snowing all around the 81 corridor ( seems to be 20 miles out from either side) but not along 81 from the Turnpike north. We have an answer on where the subsistence zone will sit. 

I'm a half mile from 81 in West Hanover Township. It changed over to snow around 5:30 and is barely laying on the grass. Lot of wood left  to chop for any accumulation on paved services.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Here in Carlisle just before 6:00pm...light to almost moderate snow is falling.  The changeover took place about an hour ago.  At that point I measured the total qpf which was mostly rain with some melting snow and measured 0.30".  An additional 0.16" had fallen during this afternoon.  Now my gauge is empty and we're starting over from the beginning.  There is now 0.1" of new snow on the board which brings the storm total to 0.2" (lol)!  The temperature has dropped to 32.5 degrees which definitely accelerated the accumulating process.  More to come in another hour...

>>Correction to my ob...it is now snowing moderately with decent sized flakes, and I now have 0.3" of new snow on the board which increases my storm total to 0.4".  I'm wondering if Mr. Norlun is going to pay me a visit???

It's sure looking like that could be the case!

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Accumulation efficiency still an issue here as I've been snowing steadily, even heavily at times, for over an hour and still only have a quarter inch.  Temp has finally dropped to 32 so that should help.  It looks great on the trees though ha. 

I have white rain and 33. Rates not nearly good enough to start accumulating.