Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

I hope the trough sets up over York and dumps 30" on Elliott's house.

[canderson]

Leaving church - solid rain still 

[Voyager]

So when do temps crash? Currently up to 36 here and rising rapidly. Snow has totally stopped here as well.

[Jns2183]

Looked at latest model runs. It's a good thing the RRFS is going to replace everything because it was the only model that apparently had a grip on this thing. I think Philly may struggle to hit 8". There are going to be many places under blizzard warnings that don't hit 6". It wants to set the inverted trough up through western Cumberland county. Someone under that is going to do very very well in a 20 mile band. In between the two bands someone is going to come away with 1" of snow total

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[mahantango#1]

27 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I've been a pessimistic regarding this storm, but I have to say it's far far too early to say anything. 7pm was the earliest time I could pin point to tell. Especially regarding what I thought was our best shot, the inverted trough

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Took notice that NWS didn't alter their Winter Storm Warnings as of 11 am update. So they must feel somewhat confident on their forecasts 

[Jns2183]

Band has about a 40 mile error mean this far out

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[Boreal]

Bangor PA. Still some light snow here but barely hanging on as it’s 35°.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Temp up to 37, even as a burst of heavier snow just moved through.  Now back to rain and snow mix.

[canderson]

Up to 37 at the house - nice rain at least (desperately needed) 

[str8liner]

On 2/20/2026 at 6:30 PM, Voyager said:

I'm greedy...lol

In reality, I'm in the I don't want it, but if it has to happen, then I want the bullseye mindset.

 

Hey, you could be like me and have a WSW for a total of 1 inch of snow lol.

And we might not get that.

Pro tip for snow lovers. Do NOT move to Bedford County for the snow lol. 

 

[WmsptWx]

I am assuming I am on the western side of the inversion. It's been snowing moderately all day. Probably just over 3", which a few days ago is 3" more than I expected. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Great advice from a pro a few minutes ago… @MillvilleWx said:

“Everything is going as planned. Accums won't really start for another 3-5 hrs, especially after sunset. Temps will drop to near and below freezing and rates will increase. The ULL formation to our south has not even started yet. Hours to go before the good stuff. Go out, grab a bite, have a drink or two, relax, take a nap, celebrate the USA Gold, then enjoy snow falling later. It'll do what it's going to do. Everyone stay safe, especially our Delmarva brethren.”

[Jns2183]

The only winners in our area will be where inverted trough sets up. The ratios for this storm are below 10:1 every where. I legit think there is going to be an area in Philly area where 10 miles is 10" and half a county remembers this storm as the biggest bust ever, while the other half ranks it a top 10 storm ever. I feel bad those weenies, as that's a brutal as it gets

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[paweather5]

Heavy snow big flakes now by ski roundtop. 

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Euro still brings 5 inches to Harrisburg & that inverted trough max line area is creeping towards Harrisburg & York this run.

[Voyager]

Rain in Tamaqua now. I can honestly say I did NOT see that coming. Temp creeping up to almost 37 now.

[paweather5]

Check it out. 
 

https://www.skiroundtop.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

[GrandmasterB]

If my kids have school tomorrow I won’t be able to show my face around the house. 

[Ruin]

So the models bent the knee to gfs for this bs lol

[MAG5035]

I know I said I was only doing one snowmap, but I’ll be making a revised one here while we’re still early. 

I wasn’t home all morning but I measured 1.3” at my parents hours 4 miles up the road at 10am, pretty similar to what it looked like here. That has melted some with temps above freezing and really light rates, so I cleared my measuring surfaces. Got some nice returns that have developed overhead in the last half hour, just needs to translate to the ground more. 

 

 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

If my kids have school tomorrow I won’t be able to show my face around the house. 

We have a dinner tonight planned and the restaurant is closing at 3. I know the owner and I’m gonna tease him relentlessly for throwing away money today lol 

[canderson]

Full travel ban for NYC starting at 9 - wish we’d have gone to see that storm there. It’ll be pretty epic. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

They only thing I have been certain of during the entire tracking period of this storm is that my buddy in Hammonton, NJ is going to get absolutely mollywhopped haha.

[Jonesy56]

For any of my fellow Harrisburg area friends feeling a little down at the moment, I’d encourage you to just drive up blue mtn.. north of linglestown here ,the 500 ft elevation gain from my house up to the top is making a world of difference for the early part of the storm.. mangled flakes and rain at my house, winter wonderland up top.


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[Itstrainingtime]

Moderate rain and 37. Already have .18" of rainfall.

[Itstrainingtime]

Models seem insistent that the loser for this event are the counties immediately east of the river. That's about the only consistent trend I'm seeing.

[Voyager]

Look where the screw zone between the coastal and the IVT is setting up. I actually CAN say that I saw THIS coming, especially once everything started shifting east. It's happened far too many times in my 25 years of living in Tamaqua. 

Actually, I started thinking about it even yesterday before the trend started.

[GrandmasterB]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Models seem insistent that the loser for this event are the counties immediately east of the river. That's about the only consistent trend I'm seeing.

HRRR still looks fine for Lancaster. I’ve never been a fan of it but I’m assuming it has utility. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Models seem insistent that the loser for this event are the counties immediately east of the river. That's about the only consistent trend I'm seeing.

Yeah the trends haven't been great for us this morning ha.

[NepaJames8602]

Binghamton Nws just issued a blizzard warning for my area. I believe this is the first time since the big March 2017 storm.

All in all, not impressed with snow amounts with the huge shuffle east. I guess we will see what happens.