Superstorm Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago That's a painful map and not surprising honestly. Glad I rode my 3-6" call. Hope that isn't too high.Could be a big range across county from SE to NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago A few random thoughts before the real fun gets underway a little later: -I like that the storm is taking its time developing the precip shield. This should bode well for later on. -I like seeing the development of the precip shield with an increasing south to north orientation. -I like seeing the western extent of the precip shield back to the Ohio border. -inverted trough snow bands notoriously shift to the east at game time as @psuhoffman has mentioned this week. I like seeing this band modeled just to the west of the LSV main corridor at this point. The Harrisburg & York crew just need a slight adjustment east to get into the goods. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Could be a big range across county from SE to NW. . Indeed. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The NAM continues the eastern rug-pull. Really going to try and enjoy this evening no matter what but I hate this feeling. Mentally preparing myself for a bust. The 3k NAM perfectly illustrates my "stuck in the middle" concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Bangor PA. 33° Light snow. 0.25” but mostly melted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The NAM continues the eastern rug-pull. Really going to try and enjoy this evening no matter what but I hate this feeling. Mentally preparing myself for a bust. The 3k NAM perfectly illustrates my "stuck in the middle" concerns. We all knew this could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: We all knew this could happen. Correct, but it always sucks seeing it play out on the models. We'll get what we get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: We all knew this could happen. Yup. I know I did. I just tried not to think or post about it, but it was always a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Jeez it’s snowing calm down and enjoy what falls. Still a lot of uncertainty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 30 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 34, currently 36 with light rain. I took the inner cylinder out of the gauge in anticipation of this event so can't tell how much but no more than a couple hundredths. Not loving what I'm seeing perusing various models this morning. A worst-case scenario would be the coastal keeps ticking east leaving us outside of its primary bands and the trough sets up in more of a State College to South Mountain type corridor so we miss that as well. Stuck in the middle with you. Hope not but it's looking like a distinct possibility at this point, perhaps even the most likely. Despite all that, CTP's map keeps improving. I'll be here either way ha. Not complaining at all. But curious what is the deal with IPT in the lesser snow? It happens a lot. Is it mountains or what? Ground is covered moderate snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The NAM continues the eastern rug-pull. Really going to try and enjoy this evening no matter what but I hate this feeling. Mentally preparing myself for a bust. The 3k NAM perfectly illustrates my "stuck in the middle" concerns. That and less IVT also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, pawatch said: Not complaining at all. But curious what is the deal with IPT in the lesser snow? It happens a lot. Is it mountains or what? Yeah sitting low amongst the mountains and they must be forecasting that area to miss out on the IVT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Jeez it’s snowing calm down and enjoy what falls. Still a lot of uncertainty. Steady, 100% rain here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The NBM at 12z still matches the CTP Warning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Steady, 100% rain here currently. That is wild look up ski roundtop camera. I would say we have just under half an inch. You should change over shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Steady, 100% rain here currently.Starting to mix in Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Starting to mix in Lanco (per ring camera). I’m currently in Neptune, NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, paweather5 said: That is wild look up ski roundtop camera. I would say we have just under half an inch. You should change over shortly. I've been watching! The rain has picked up in intensity here but my temp continues to rise slowly. I'm at 36 right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: . Nice, did you go chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The NAM continues the eastern rug-pull. Really going to try and enjoy this evening no matter what but I hate this feeling. Mentally preparing myself for a bust. The 3k NAM perfectly illustrates my "stuck in the middle" concerns. This is why I hate models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Nice, did you go chasing? What are you seeing right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago White rain in York New Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago In the last 15 min. the snow turned to rain here.33.4 temp. and a 33 dp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CTP “Expected Snow” map issued at 9:15 which is typically conservative, shows 7 to 9 for Harrisburg, York & Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, Ruin said: This is why I hate models This was never our storm..we are too west. Philly,NYC, Long Island a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 39 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The NAM continues the eastern rug-pull. Really going to try and enjoy this evening no matter what but I hate this feeling. Mentally preparing myself for a bust. The 3k NAM perfectly illustrates my "stuck in the middle" concerns. Hate to say it, but its been on my mind since last evening. We've seen this before, but as this storm has been different (regarding modeling), I was hoping to buck normal tendencies. Just gonna have to roll w/ it. Still Sunday funday and a tie game. 3rd period should be excititng. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CTP “Expected Snow” map issued at 9:15 which is typically conservative, shows 7 to 9 for Harrisburg, York & Lanco.They will be changing that soon, unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 75% rain / 25% snow mix toward Linglestown (35°F), with no accumulation. Given the marginal boundary layer temperatures, it will be difficult to see snow accumulation if model trends continue to support subsidence across the LSV. Most of the model snow maps are way too high given ratios and ground temperatures. It's looking snowy in Huntingdon County (https://stormsellweather.com/weatherwall/pawebcams.html), where banding has been present most of the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, anotherman said: They will be changing that soon, unfortunately. Why? Because of the NAM, lol! Try to let the event play out… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I might need to check out for awhile, the emotional roller coaster by some on here is kind of unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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