Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

[pasnownut]

nooner GFS keeps hope alive.  ticked notably W with SLP and 500s a bit more neg tilt. 

A nice step back towards something, and not away from it.

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

nooner GFS keeps hope alive.  ticked notably W with SLP and 500s a bit more neg tilt. 

A nice step back towards something, and not away from it.

 

Yep, and so did the Canadian.  Lord knows we are in that period where the models love to seesaw.  Fun times ahead.

[Superstorm]

73" in tidewater area on the Canadian.

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

73" in tidewater area on the Canadian.

I'm just happy to see that we have a chance, and that while not a lock, it surely is something that could pad stats and get trainer to give our region the A grade that we have wanted for a long time.  CMC was a notable step back twds something appreciable.  

With so much energy/vorts to sort, I'd imagine we still have a day or 2 of notable swings/misses to sort out until players take the field (conus).

[Itstrainingtime]

30 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm just happy to see that we have a chance, and that while not a lock, it surely is something that could pad stats and get trainer to give our region the A grade that we have wanted for a long time.  CMC was a notable step back twds something appreciable.  

With so much energy/vorts to sort, I'd imagine we still have a day or 2 of notable swings/misses to sort out until players take the field (conus).

73" would at least get us to an A-. 

  

[Ruin]

it be really nice if they told us just once why models waffle from 1 run to the next

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

73" would at least get us to an A-. 

  

I agree. 73° would give it an A-

Oh wait, you're talking about seasonal snow...my bad. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

I agree. 73° would give it an A-

Oh wait, you're talking about seasonal snow...my bad. 

Actually, no...I was talking about getting 73" from the next storm alone! (The 12z CMC showed a bullseye of 73" over the Delmarva)

[Voyager]

54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Actually, no...I was talking about getting 73" from the next storm alone! (The 12z CMC showed a bullseye of 73" over the Delmarva)

Oh wow! I missed that. The model sites are difficult to navigate on a phone and I'm at work.

I guess I could get on board for an historical event of that kind of magnitude.

[canderson]

Looking like up to 1” heavy rain Thursday tonight.  Worry about ice jams is rising . 

[AccuChris]

Man, this is so close to being something special per the 18z GFS


.

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Man, this is so close to being something special per the 18z GFS


.

Where do we sign up for the 18z GFS to please verify for Sunday?

[Superstorm]

Now it’s time to track


.

[mahantango#1]

From DT:

THIS WEEK IN WX VIDEO TONIGHT

 

  LETS MONGER ABOUT SUNDAY MONDAY POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM

 

Just to give you all a clue…..Yesterday and again this morning and again this evening. NOAA/ NWS flew reconnaissance aircraft into the eastern Pacific to get a better sampling of the upper atmosphere and to make up for the loss of data from closure of several key weather stations in the upper planes in Midwest, which used to end up with the balloons to gather information about the atmosphere.

 

The fact that the national weather service had to send out extra planes into the eastern, pacific to gather this data speaks to how badly the overall weather models have performed recently because of the lack of information from the weather stations that have been partially shut down in the upper Midwest.

 

Guess what happened when they flew those planes and gather the extra data? They were a huge changes in what the models are showing is going to happen for Sunday Monday. Full details and discussion tonight on the weather video around 1030pm

[Jns2183]

From DT:
THIS WEEK IN WX VIDEO TONIGHT
 
  LETS MONGER ABOUT SUNDAY MONDAY POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM
 
Just to give you all a clue…..Yesterday and again this morning and again this evening. NOAA/ NWS flew reconnaissance aircraft into the eastern Pacific to get a better sampling of the upper atmosphere and to make up for the loss of data from closure of several key weather stations in the upper planes in Midwest, which used to end up with the balloons to gather information about the atmosphere.
 
The fact that the national weather service had to send out extra planes into the eastern, pacific to gather this data speaks to how badly the overall weather models have performed recently because of the lack of information from the weather stations that have been partially shut down in the upper Midwest.
 
Guess what happened when they flew those planes and gather the extra data? They were a huge changes in what the models are showing is going to happen for Sunday Monday. Full details and discussion tonight on the weather video around 1030pm

The closure of two weather stations and there ballons are not the reason the models have had so many issues, nor is it the reason NOAA is sending planes out to the Pacific. I will say what would do some wonders for our models are cheap, high altitude, many months lasting between landing, drones with weather equipment. I give it until 2030 until true sensor swarms start being used in exactly those places the planes are going and where people are sparse. He sounds wacky with that two station with weather balloon crap.

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[Itstrainingtime]

GFS is keeping hopes alive in the 0z suite...

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS is keeping hopes alive in the 0z suite...

Absolutely, great to see 2 good runs in a row by the GFS.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Absolutely, great to see 2 good runs in a row by the GFS.

If this low track were to verify as the low intensifies heading northward, heavier snow would push further back into CTP.

[mahantango#1]

From DT: and his video about 25 min ago he's still calling bull on the gfs.

Yes I saw the 18z wed op GFS . There is a better chance of monkeys flying out of my ass on Sunday night then that model verifying.

[Storm Clouds]

I ain’t getting excited about anything until the Euro is on board. We have been fooled too many times by the GFS. Don’t fall for its nonsense. 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

I ain’t getting excited about anything until the Euro is on board. We have been fooled too many times by the GFS. Don’t fall for its nonsense. 

I think the chances of "us" getting a significant (6"+)snowfall is quite low...probably no higher than 20%. A light to moderate snowfall is quite possible. And that would be sans coastal which is what the Euro really isn't interested in. So while I would tend to agree with you, this is more complicated than even the Euro can get a good handle on. 

At any rate, like I said about agreeing with you, it would be nice to have consensus on something. And we might not have that (good or bad) for at least another 24 hours. 

[Itstrainingtime]

CMC brings the Norlun Trough feature further east into the western part of the LSV. They are notorious for being both very fickle and can carry quite an impressive punch. If it materializes, that's probably the ticket to a 6" snowfall this far west. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CMC brings the Norlun Trough feature further east into the western part of the LSV. They are notorious for being both very fickle and can carry quite an impressive punch. If it materializes, that's probably the ticket to a 6" snowfall this far west. 

The 0z Canadian gets a healthy coastal low going off of the coast of Norfolk, but then it slides mostly east from there as it intensifies. The LSV gets some snow from the coastal & then tacks on from the Norlun as the storm exits east.

Long way to go, but I like seeing the 0z GFS & Canadian keeping us in the game for a Warning level chance. I think the odds of an Advisory level event for us are certainly increasing.

[AMDEW80]

Wtf… I can’t recall a severe thunderstorm like this in February.  Also not forecast.  

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, AMDEW80 said:

Wtf… I can’t recall a severe thunderstorm like this in February.  Also not forecast.  

Where in the world did they come from? You don't have any rain at all in your forecast. Wow. Radar looks like spring up your way. 

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CMC brings the Norlun Trough feature further east into the western part of the LSV. They are notorious for being both very fickle and can carry quite an impressive punch. If it materializes, that's probably the ticket to a 6" snowfall this far west. 

This has actually been the most consistent part of forecasting this the last couple days, the inverted trough/NORLUN feature plus the general lighter snows having to do with the upper level feature dropping through. The last couple model runs have been fairly consistent across the board with delivering a light to moderate snowfall. The 0z suite is solid in C-PA, Euro included, with ensemble support for such things.

What is still wildly different is the evolution of the coastal itself. 0z GFS threw down like 30” on a big part of the Delmarva, while the 0z Euro has 1-2” at best there and way offshore with the developing coastal.