Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

right off the coast of omcd? pretty much benchmark correct?

40/70 is lat/lon for "benchmark" for classic noreasters/snowstorm signal.  Verbatim map you shared was 200miles wsw of that location.  That is called "tucked". 

Since you new, take notes....too old to have to repeat myself 

[pasnownut]

4 hours ago, GrandmasterB said:

That would be great for us verbatim. Significant CCB, comma-head action. 

like you/others stated, long way to go here, and while the nooners look good, as antecedent cold is not stoudt, yeah, nails gonna b bitten down here (assuming GFS has a clue....)

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

CMC is a bomb

 

this is what I want to see....

On monday morning.  Till then...just perty colors IMBY

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This is getting real fellas.  I don't know if I can handle the week ahead ha.

After the morning I've had, if I can....you can.

suckitupbuttercup

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

To me, the Euro got a good bit closer compared to where it's been.  I think it's finally starting to see it and will come around in days ahead.

wasnt that the case for our late Jan snowbonanza?  me thinks Euro played catch up.  GFS was sniffin early

[WmsptWx]

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

wasnt that the case for our late Jan snowbonanza?  me thinks Euro played catch up.  GFS was sniffin early

GFS was laughably off with the precip shield over Panama City on Tuesday of the week of that storm, I believe. 

 

Euro had it early, GFS came late. 

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

GFS was laughably off with the precip shield over Panama City on Tuesday of the week of that storm, I believe. 

 

Euro had it early, GFS came late. 

oh ok.  Thought it the other way around.  i figured you stat guys could keep me straight.

[Itstrainingtime]

@sauss06 and anyone else who's interested:

 

[Itstrainingtime]

GFS is reintroducing Boxing Day nightmares for me - what an epic bomb for the immediate coast though. 

A couple of inches for the LSV, a couple of feet for the eastern seaboard. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I think this would qualify as heavy snow:

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

[Yardstickgozinya]

10 hours ago, pasnownut said:

yes SSW was to be peturbed, and if so, would not show up at lower levels (lag time).  MJO wasnt horribile looking but NAO was going notably + and trough west often means ridge east.  Hoping things sort out a bit better moving forward.  

this weekend looks rather nice.  

Thanks buddy. I've been looking at the weather for a long time so i'm used to seeing disagreement, but something seems different this time. No one seems to be noticing or saying anything, so it must be an algorithmic thing on my end. It's like all of a sudden over the course of the last ten days i'm getting data from parallel universes. 

I've been keeping my eye on the weekend storm. I'm letting some food digest before I step on the roller coaster. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Ensembles are still the best tool that we have at this range.

The 18z EPS, 18z AI EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble all point to the chance of a moderate snow potential on Sunday.

Details TBD

[Itstrainingtime]

ICON, GFS and CMC all dropped a big fat turd tonight. Amazing how quickly everything was coming together early today and even more quickly how things have soured tonight. 

Maybe they come back?

One thing I've noticed - there's an additional piece of energy showing up tonight that swings through early Saturday. If that comes to fruition it's lights out. We won't have the separation needed for any trailing energy to come up and get us as the flow dampens out behind the Saturday thing. 

[Jns2183]

Winter jacket: Below 32^\circ F
Light jacket: Between 32^\circ F and 50^\circ F
Sweater: Between 50^\circ F and 65^\circ F
Jeans & shirt: Between 65^\circ F and 80^\circ F
Shorts and T-shirt: Above 80^\circ F

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Ruin]

gonna enjoy a nice weekend sat high 52 sun 44 doubt even if we got precip we would see snow. They are opening up the deck at a local bar sat night think ill head out with my friends.

[MickeyTim6533]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

gonna enjoy a nice weekend sat high 52 sun 44 doubt even if we got precip we would see snow. They are opening up the deck at a local bar sat night think ill head out with my friends.

[MickeyTim6533]

All Hail King EURO

[Mount Joy Snowman]

33 and foggy. No rain yet despite some decent radar returns overhead earlier. The 0z suite would be quite a kick in the nuts but nothing we aren’t used to ha.  

[MAG5035]

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

ICON, GFS and CMC all dropped a big fat turd tonight. Amazing how quickly everything was coming together early today and even more quickly how things have soured tonight. 

Maybe they come back?

One thing I've noticed - there's an additional piece of energy showing up tonight that swings through early Saturday. If that comes to fruition it's lights out. We won't have the separation needed for any trailing energy to come up and get us as the flow dampens out behind the Saturday thing. 

There’s a lot of energy pieces in the 500mb flow to sort out. It looks like the main piece is phasing in later on guidance now, firing the coastal more offshore. That deep 500mb shortwave still passes over us, so could still have some lighter snow in that scenario. One thing that I saw hints of in various intensity across the overnight op guidance is presence of an NORLUN/inverted trough type feature… something that just occurred in New England a week ago. That’d be a more localized thing, and probably something hard to nail down the exact location of. 6z GFS had the feature a good bit further west vs 0z GFS, for instance. 

Then there’s the 84 hr 6z NAM with the wave coming through a full 24 hours early, full disclaimer on it being the 84 hr NAM. But I certainly wouldn’t say the models have a handle on this yet. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Unfortunately most models went the wrong way at 0z for the Sunday chance.

The 6z AI Euro still offers some hope for a moderate event chance.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

There’s a lot of energy pieces in the 500mb flow to sort out. It looks like the main piece is phasing in later on guidance now, firing the coastal more offshore. That deep 500mb shortwave still passes over us, so could still have some lighter snow in that scenario. One thing that I saw hints of in various intensity across the overnight op guidance is presence of an NORLUN/inverted trough type feature… something that just occurred in New England a week ago. That’d be a more localized thing, and probably something hard to nail down the exact location of. 6z GFS had the feature a good bit further west vs 0z GFS, for instance. 

Then there’s the 84 hr 6z NAM with the wave coming through a full 24 hours early, full disclaimer on it being the 84 hr NAM. But I certainly wouldn’t say the models have a handle on this yet. 

I agree that the models still have a lot to sort out. The 84 hr. NAM that you mentioned also looks completely different the the 84 hr RGEM.

We need to give this another day or two to watch the trends.

[mahantango#1]

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro offered some hope for a light to moderate snow chance on Sunday.

[Voyager]

I'm sorry, but after a month of dirty, salty roads, if this rain this week washes them clean, I don't want it to return.

[Blizzard of 93]

Ensembles still say that we have a chance.

Here are the 0z Canadian ensemble & 6z EPS. The Canadian ensemble on WB only has 24 hr, so there might be a little more snow outside this window. The Euro products have 24, 48 & 72 hour windows available.

[Blizzard of 93]

 

Here is the 6z AI EPS 48 hour snow through Monday.

[pawatch]

33 degrees and rain. Looks like rain for a lot of the day.

Trend has been south all season. Something to watch. 

[mahantango#1]

53 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm sorry, but after a month of dirty, salty roads, if this rain this week washes them clean, I don't want it to return.

[ChescoWx]

Fog should slowly diminish later this morning. We should see some light rain across especially for spots north of the PA Turnpike this afternoon. Rain amounts look light with most spots less than 0.15". Today’s temperatures will be in the low 40's just about average for the date. Rain chances to ramp up again tomorrow night and especially Friday with more significant rain expected. Snow chances look to increase by Sunday but way too early to nail down specifics.

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, pawatch said:

33 degrees and rain. Looks like rain for a lot of the day.

Trend has been south all season. Something to watch. 

Yes, this year sure has bucked the typical norther trends.  last weeks "event" came slightly north and we went from nothing to fringed.  Seasonal tendency does not show up on tellies or factor into algorithms, so while the last 24 hrs hasn't been trends we want to see, as Mag suggested, you gotta look at 500's first before figuring out how the lower levels are gonna look.  That said, there is a lot of sorting to do.  Was really hoping the earlier phase was going to work out, but Friday's deal is screwin the snow pooch and not giving time/spacing to dive in, keeping the flow more progressive.