Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

right off the coast of omcd? pretty much benchmark correct?

40/70 is lat/lon for "benchmark" for classic noreasters/snowstorm signal.  Verbatim map you shared was 200miles wsw of that location.  That is called "tucked". 

Since you new, take notes....too old to have to repeat myself 

[pasnownut]

4 hours ago, GrandmasterB said:

That would be great for us verbatim. Significant CCB, comma-head action. 

like you/others stated, long way to go here, and while the nooners look good, as antecedent cold is not stoudt, yeah, nails gonna b bitten down here (assuming GFS has a clue....)

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

CMC is a bomb

 

this is what I want to see....

On monday morning.  Till then...just perty colors IMBY

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This is getting real fellas.  I don't know if I can handle the week ahead ha.

After the morning I've had, if I can....you can.

suckitupbuttercup

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

To me, the Euro got a good bit closer compared to where it's been.  I think it's finally starting to see it and will come around in days ahead.

wasnt that the case for our late Jan snowbonanza?  me thinks Euro played catch up.  GFS was sniffin early

[WmsptWx]

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

wasnt that the case for our late Jan snowbonanza?  me thinks Euro played catch up.  GFS was sniffin early

GFS was laughably off with the precip shield over Panama City on Tuesday of the week of that storm, I believe. 

 

Euro had it early, GFS came late. 

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

GFS was laughably off with the precip shield over Panama City on Tuesday of the week of that storm, I believe. 

 

Euro had it early, GFS came late. 

oh ok.  Thought it the other way around.  i figured you stat guys could keep me straight.

[Itstrainingtime]

@sauss06 and anyone else who's interested:

 

[Itstrainingtime]

GFS is reintroducing Boxing Day nightmares for me - what an epic bomb for the immediate coast though. 

A couple of inches for the LSV, a couple of feet for the eastern seaboard. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I think this would qualify as heavy snow:

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

[Yardstickgozinya]

10 hours ago, pasnownut said:

yes SSW was to be peturbed, and if so, would not show up at lower levels (lag time).  MJO wasnt horribile looking but NAO was going notably + and trough west often means ridge east.  Hoping things sort out a bit better moving forward.  

this weekend looks rather nice.  

Thanks buddy. I've been looking at the weather for a long time so i'm used to seeing disagreement, but something seems different this time. No one seems to be noticing or saying anything, so it must be an algorithmic thing on my end. It's like all of a sudden over the course of the last ten days i'm getting data from parallel universes. 

I've been keeping my eye on the weekend storm. I'm letting some food digest before I step on the roller coaster. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Ensembles are still the best tool that we have at this range.

The 18z EPS, 18z AI EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble all point to the chance of a moderate snow potential on Sunday.

Details TBD

[Itstrainingtime]

ICON, GFS and CMC all dropped a big fat turd tonight. Amazing how quickly everything was coming together early today and even more quickly how things have soured tonight. 

Maybe they come back?

One thing I've noticed - there's an additional piece of energy showing up tonight that swings through early Saturday. If that comes to fruition it's lights out. We won't have the separation needed for any trailing energy to come up and get us as the flow dampens out behind the Saturday thing. 

[Jns2183]

Winter jacket: Below 32^\circ F
Light jacket: Between 32^\circ F and 50^\circ F
Sweater: Between 50^\circ F and 65^\circ F
Jeans & shirt: Between 65^\circ F and 80^\circ F
Shorts and T-shirt: Above 80^\circ F

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Ruin]

gonna enjoy a nice weekend sat high 52 sun 44 doubt even if we got precip we would see snow. They are opening up the deck at a local bar sat night think ill head out with my friends.

[MickeyTim6533]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

gonna enjoy a nice weekend sat high 52 sun 44 doubt even if we got precip we would see snow. They are opening up the deck at a local bar sat night think ill head out with my friends.

[MickeyTim6533]

All Hail King EURO