Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

The window on the 23rd on the 12z EPS has a favorable Miller B look this run that could lead to a potential winter storm chance.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 12z EPS 24 hour precip & snow for the 23rd chance.

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Temp has fallen to 37 here as rainfall has surpassed 1/8".  Radar is blossoming as rain picks up in intensity.  I'll be damned if I'm going to bed tonight before seeing some flakes fall through the night sky.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

mPING reports of snow falling in parts of Berks and Lehigh Counties.  That area could actually see a couple inches.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

mPING reports of snow falling in parts of Berks and Lehigh Counties.  That area could actually see a couple inches.

Philly thread is full of posters currently reporting snow all the way to the Delaware River. 

[Voyager]

15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

mPING reports of snow falling in parts of Berks and Lehigh Counties.  That area could actually see a couple inches.

Snowing in Tamaqua, but not sticking to anything yet.

Temp is 36.

[Ruin]

and todays storm is all rain lol 

[Ruin]

13 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

@Ruin it's one thing if you're just simply saying you've never seen it. It's another one if you're trying to say it doesn't happen. .  Every single spring and fall  we have no shortage of air quality alerts on  windy days, it's not a rare thing by any means.  Air quality alerts in the winter is a little more rare but it's not unheard of either.

 Air quality alerts are frequently issued during windy conditions. While wind often disperses pollution, it can also transport smoke from distant wildfires or stir up dust, sand, and ash, causing AQI levels to spike into dangerous orange, red, or purple zones. High winds can transport pollutants across large distances, worsening air quality far from the source. 

  Pollution and particulate matter (PM) generally travel, persist, and accumulate more in cold, dry air. Cold air is denser and sits closer to the ground, trapping pollutants, while low humidity prevents moisture from washing particles out of the atmosphere. Thermal inversions often occur, acting as a lid that keeps pollutants trapped. 

 Humidity can help hold down pollen particles, but the overall effect on allergy symptoms is complex and often negative. While moisture can weigh down pollen grains and stop them from traveling far, high humidity often leads to increased mold and dust mite populations, which can exacerbate allergies. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

 

its very hard for pollution particles in a cold dry area to actually form any type of air pollution can it happen? yes but highly doubtful it happens as many times as it has happened this winter given how dry and cold and windy it has been 

[MickeyTim6533]

36 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

mPING reports of snow falling in parts of Berks and Lehigh Counties.  That area could actually see a couple inches.

Can confirm, it is indeed snowing in the berks county area

[Voyager]

Cars caved. Sidewalks caving Street? Not yet, but it's snowing big fatties right now, so it's just a matter of time.

[mahantango#1]

9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Cars caved. Sidewalks caving Street? Not yet, but it's snowing big fatties right now, so it's just a matter of time.

Rain here.

[AccuChris]

Snow flakes now falling in Lebanon


.

[Jns2183]

Mixing all the way down to Baltimore

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[canderson]

Al rain here.  And I finished drinking all the prep at 6 and … nothing. 

[anotherman]

Al rain here.  And I finished drinking all the prep at 6 and … nothing. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

its very hard for pollution particles in a cold dry area to actually form any type of air pollution can it happen? yes but highly doubtful it happens as many times as it has happened this winter given how dry and cold and windy it has been 

You really have completely closed yourself off to unlearning or learning anything.  Your confidence has put massive limitations on your ability to absorb our process any kind  knowledge or understanding usefully. 

 

AI Overview

Pollution does 

not have a harder time forming in winter; in fact, winter and cold conditions often make air pollution worse and more concentrated. Cold, dense air inhibits dispersion, while phenomenon like temperature inversions trap pollutants near the ground, causing them to linger longer than in summer. 

Key Reasons Pollution is Worse in Winter: 

• Temperature Inversions: Warm air can trap a layer of cold, stagnant air near the ground, acting like a lid that prevents pollutants (from cars, wood burning, and industry) from dispersing.
• Dense Air: Cold air is denser and slower-moving, which allows pollutants to build up rather than being swept away by wind.
• Increased Emissions: Cold starts for vehicles and increased, consistent use of home heating (wood stoves, furnaces) release higher amounts of pollution.
• Reduced Precipitation: Lower rainfall in winter means fewer pollutants are washed out of the air. 

While some photochemical smog components are higher in summer, the overall concentration of pollutants, especially particulate matter (PM2.5), is generally higher in winter. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Lol, this worthless storm is infuriating me to the bitter end… I

I don’t think that I have EVER seen a freaking change over happen well to my South east prior to my change over to snow in Marysville.

Normally the change over happens first in Altoona, State College, Newport, Marysville, MDT, then Lancaster l, etc…

Not tonight!

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, this worthless storm is infuriating me to the bitter end… I

I don’t think that I have EVER seen a freaking change over happen well to my South east prior to my change over to snow in Marysville.

Normally the change over happens first in Altoona, State College, Newport, Marysville, MDT, then Lancaster l, etc…

Not tonight!

 

 

I was thinking the same thing; however, most of the models that were showing snow had it falling largely to our east, and that's what's happened so far. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was thinking the same thing; however, most of the models that were showing snow had it falling largely to our east, and that's what's happened so far. 

I know, but I didn’t believe it, but here we are, lol!

[CarlislePaWx]

Wet snow flakes started mixing in with the light rain about 90 minutes ago.  It was enough to drop my temp to 35.2 degrees, but it's been hovering at that temp for the past hour.  The precip is still a mix however rain is still predominant.  I'm not expecting a change to pure snow because it will likely come to an end before a full changeover.  We'll see...

Oh...forgot to mention I've recorded 0.21" of precip thus far.  Going into this event I had only 0.02" for the month to date.  So, now month to date is 0.23" which is still ridiculous.  The drought worsens slowly.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Wet snow flakes started mixing in with the light rain about 90 minutes ago.  It was enough to drop my temp to 35.2 degrees, but it's been hovering at that temp for the past hour.  The precip is still a mix however rain is still predominant.  I'm not expecting a change to pure snow because it will likely come to an end before a full changeover.  We'll see...

Oh...forgot to mention I've recorded 0.21" of precip thus far.  Going to this event I had only 0.02" for the month to date.  So, now month to date is 0.23" which is still ridiculous.  The drought worsens slowly.

Yeah, sort of lost over the past several weeks of bitter cold and snow cover has been the real lack of precip. We really need things to turn around soon or we're going to have issues. 

[CarlislePaWx]

47 minutes ago, canderson said:

Al rain here.  And I finished drinking all the prep at 6 and … nothing. 

For my first colonoscopy 20 years ago at age 45 I had no idea what to expect.  In fact, nothing happened for the first 10 hours, several hours after I had finished drinking the 64 ounces.  But then, all of the sudden it started, and once that happened I was ready the following morning for the procedure.  Don't worry about the delay, and good luck.  

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

For my first colonoscopy 20 years ago at age 45 I had no idea what to expect.  In fact, nothing happened for the first 10 hours, several hours after I had finished drinking the 64 ounces.  But then, all of the sudden it started, and once that happened I was ready the following morning for the procedure.  Don't worry about the delay, and good luck.  

Thank you for this. It eases my mind.  Still nothing but do feel some rumbling. 

[pasnownut]

Started mixing w/ snow about 1 hour ago, and now light snow falling.  Not stickin to anything other than existing snow.  

Blizz, it doesnt look like were done trackin yet.  Glad to see we have a little more time.  Heres to a good week and hopefully more chances.  Next weekend sure does look like a good window of opportunity.

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

We just started mixing with the little bit of snow here in Fairview township couple minutes ago. 

[AccuChris]

Snow starting to stick a little bit on the exposed grass and elevated surfaces in Lebanon now


.

[MAG5035]

31 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, this worthless storm is infuriating me to the bitter end… I

I don’t think that I have EVER seen a freaking change over happen well to my South east prior to my change over to snow in Marysville.

Normally the change over happens first in Altoona, State College, Newport, Marysville, MDT, then Lancaster l, etc…

Not tonight!

 

 

We’re cooked in the low levels up thru 925mb or so, the easterly/northeasterly flow from the low going to the south is drawing sub zero 925mb air thats in place from that direction.. hence the backwards changeover.

Actually a pretty decent band of precip running along the I-80 corridor from State College over to pretty much NJ, and there’s accumulating snow on the cams on I-81 and 80 near Hazelton and down I-81 as far as at least the US 209 exit north of Pine Grove. 

[Jns2183]

Snow in camp Hill

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[mahantango#1]

Wet snow here and 34 degrees.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Light snow falling Fairview township 10:21 pm