Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

30 minutes ago, Voyager said:

There was a big time wind shift around 1:00pm in Hazleton. A West wind that was blocked by the water silos turned into a north wind that's now blowing a blizzard of the roof of the plant.

Of course the fallout ends up right where the unload hose hooks to the truck.

You have to a long talk with mother nature again as it is cloudy all day again. You have to stress to her we need sunshine 

[Voyager]

9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

You have to a long talk with mother nature again as it is cloudy all day again. You have to stress to her we need sunshine 

She doesn't listen to me, and in fact doubles down...lol

[Yardstickgozinya]

12 minutes ago, Festus said:

Some light snizzle here.  Bit of a surprise and might add a few nanometers to the snowpack.

[canderson]

It is funny how and CTP is bad with wind lately. Forecast is for 24 mph winds while it’s gusting 38 mph.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Some flurries on the walk to the train in Harrisburg. What a gray day.

[SnowPlowGuy88]

Chiming in to add to those who had some snizzle/flakes/flurries today. Was sitting at a traffic light during an afternoon errand run and noticed some flakes on the windshield. Should have taken a picture of it, but I even saw a truck owner with mounds of snow left on his bed cover in the Giant parking lot off Winding Hill. I mean, how lazy do you have to be to still have mounds of snow on your vehicle 2.5 weeks after the storm? I even said out loud as I walked by it “what a lazy F***” 

Seems like the Canadian model is the only one still holding on for all snow for our area. Will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer. Point and click has temps in the high 30s and lows 40s all through the ten day. Hoping its wrong, but its early enough, we can still score. 

[pasnownut]

52 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Some flurries on the walk to the train in Harrisburg. What a gray day.

couple flurries on way home from office.  digi thermo stuck on 37 whole way from etown to akron.  Never budged. 

[pasnownut]

41 minutes ago, SnowPlowGuy88 said:

Chiming in to add to those who had some snizzle/flakes/flurries today. Was sitting at a traffic light during an afternoon errand run and noticed some flakes on the windshield. Should have taken a picture of it, but I even saw a truck owner with mounds of snow left on his bed cover in the Giant parking lot off Winding Hill. I mean, how lazy do you have to be to still have mounds of snow on your vehicle 2.5 weeks after the storm? I even said out loud as I walked by it “what a lazy F***” 

Seems like the Canadian model is the only one still holding on for all snow for our area. Will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer. Point and click has temps in the high 30s and lows 40s all through the ten day. Hoping its wrong, but its early enough, we can still score. 

south trend seems to have gained traction today.  no NS/SS interaction and it just scoots due east ish.  Stll think a norther correction happens but not sure if and how much.  Gonna say i'm a bit baffled as to what I'm seeing. 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

couple flurries on way home from office.  digi thermo stuck on 37 whole way from etown to akron.  Never budged. 

Here too right now.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

35 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

couple flurries on way home from office.  digi thermo stuck on 37 whole way from etown to akron.  Never budged. 

Same here, 37 the entire time from Mount Joy to my house. It’s amazing what thick clouds and sturdy winds can do for temperature consistency. 

[canderson]

Had flurries too. But on the other side I can now see the top of our creeping rose bushes. Booooo

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

south trend seems to have gained traction today.  no NS/SS interaction and it just scoots due east ish.  Stll think a norther correction happens but not sure if and how much.  Gonna say i'm a bit baffled as to what I'm seeing. 

18Z AI EPS - thanks to @Weather Will in the Mid Atlantic thread.

For CTP, about half of the ensemble members bring at least light snow & several heavy hitters remain as possible outcomes.

 

[canderson]

50s are possible middle of next week

I’m still holding out hope for rain Sunday to wash salt away but decent precip seems …. Skeptical

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

50s are possible middle of next week

I’m still holding out hope for rain Sunday to wash salt away but decent precip seems …. Skeptical

Some models indicate warmer than that. 70s up into central MD.

[pasnownut]

8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18Z AI EPS - thanks to @Weather Will in the Mid Atlantic thread.

For CTP, about half of the ensemble members bring at least light snow & several heavy hitters remain as possible outcomes.

 

overnighters have us on the northern edge of precip, and several have short period of snow here.  Still think it comes further north.  

 

[pasnownut]

Looked at ens guidance and next week looks like our thaw, but many show 30s n 40's for much of period.  I'm sure a day or 2 might tickle the 50.  Just a boring stretch incoming. 

Twds the end, it looks like we get some colder air back but not a big signal.  Just boring. 

long term -pna/+nao/+ao says coldest favored west. Its not a close the shades look, but not a good one either.  

[Yardstickgozinya]

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Some models indicate warmer than that. 70s up into central MD.

 

[Voyager]

Currently sitting at 28 degrees this morning, which is not bad. The sad, and infuriating part for me, is that it appears that there will be no temperature rise today. Ugh...

To add insult to injury for this warmanista, after two early shift Fogelsville deliveries, I get to go up into the tundra that is Hazleton. That god-forsaken place that has an entirely different winter climate than most other places in Eastern PA.

[mahantango#1]

 

[pawatch]

28 degrees and another cloudy day perhaps.

Few stray flurries.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Current temp of 29 is the low. Looks like yesterday broke (just barely) MDT’s consecutive streak of below normal days. 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z EPS still brings a chance of light snow on Sunday to southern PA.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GEFS also has a light event chance on Sunday into Monday as well.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z AI EPS still says that we are in the game for later this weekend.

[pasnownut]

As I've been curious lately about how we seem to have muted warmups (winter to date, not including next week), I just looked at Akron and Etown zips on NWS climo data for this week and neither location got to 40 for the last 3 days (which was our "warmup" that was being touted from last week.  

Next week, I'm sure I'll be trolled to oblivion and beyond when we hit 50 (and I think we have a couple chances at it.)

Not sure how many days our sub 40 stretch has been, but for me, it's been enjoyable.  No matter, springs gonna b springin soon enough.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

As I've been curious lately about how we seem to have muted warmups (winter to date, not including next week), I just looked at Akron and Etown zips on NWS climo data for this week and neither location got to 40 for the last 3 days (which was our "warmup" that was being touted from last week.  

Next week, I'm sure I'll be trolled to oblivion and beyond when we hit 50 (and I think we have a couple chances at it.)

Not sure how many days our sub 40 stretch has been, but for me, it's been enjoyable.  No matter, springs gonna b springin soon enough.

 

Should be interesting to see how mid to late next week works out. Some models are already backing down somewhat on the extent of the "heat." I feel like most years warmups are always underdone but this year has been an exception in so many ways. 

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Should be interesting to see how mid to late next week works out. Some models are already backing down somewhat on the extent of the "heat." I feel like most years warmups are always underdone but this year has been an exception in so many ways. 

Yeah one thing that has been consistent is the cold pool in the east.  As arctic boundary retreats its going to warm, but we've been cold for some time, and I wonder how much staying power it will have.  Model depending, 850s show SW flow only one or two periods in the next 7-10days, and arctic boundary while north, is still close enough to do its thing, and not cook us.  My goal is to keep snow cover as long as possible, and I think into mid next week, it should be bye and large safe, but slowly dwindling.

Walked on my frozen tundra last evening getting wood, and man, it is stoudt.    

[canderson]

WGAL posted that MDT has had 17 consecutive days with at least 5" of snow, ranking as the 15th longest stretch and first since 1994.

Yesterday broke Harrisburg’s 19 day run of lows below 20 - that’s the 7th longest streak. 

 

[ChescoWx]

Today is our 27th straight day with snow cover here in Chester County. Tomorrow we will move to the 15th longest such stretch and 24th overall snow cover streak in county history with 133 years of records back to 1893. Below normal temperatures will continue through tomorrow before we warm to near normal temperatures over the weekend. There is a chance of some snow or rain arriving later Sunday with the highest chances across more southern areas. We look to continue to warm next week with temperatures well into the 40's by Tuesday. We will likely turn colder again by the end of new week.

[mahantango#1]

 I remember this storm very well. Original forecast was 1-3 than 2-4 till it was all set an done i received 18 inches. I think Harrisburg got 24 inches. There was Thunder and lightning during the storm. February 10-12th, 1983: 
Called the “Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm,” this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall of up to 25 inches fell in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours. A ship sunk off the Virginia/Maryland coast, killing 33. There were 46 total storm-related fatalities.