Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Ruin]

I hope we can get the storm to go up the coast a bit more or even tuck in instead of kicking more out to sea when its gets up close to nj it just exits right 

 

[MickeyTim6533]

6Z is a crush job

[anotherman]

[Voyager]

Region-wide 20+ inches on the 6z GFS...

[Yardstickgozinya]

30 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I hope we can get the storm to go up the coast a bit more or even tuck in instead of kicking more out to sea when its gets up close to nj it just exits right 

 

No, I believe there's a transfer along the coast involved and  depending on how that baton gets passed, will make a difference on amounts and p type. 

[Ruin]

28 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

No, I believe there's a transfer along the coast involved and  depending on how that baton gets passed, will make a difference on amounts and p type. 

Yeah, most of the models are saying that it does get kicked out more east than north. Thus, that's why most of the precipitation ends early monday.I hope we can get it to stay a little bit longer into the afternoon on monday

[pasnownut]

so far 6z's largely held serve but Icon has us southers sniffin and seein taint. 

Regardless of antecedent cold, the lack of 50/50 is possibly why, but my hopes is that as CAD which is often stronger than modelled, will give the late correction S as we near go time will hopefully bring southers back.  

LIke others have stated, i'd be ok w/ a more strung out/less pronounced deal.  Would like to see the quicker secondary pop as well, but thats wishcasting and doesnt really count disco wise. IMO that'd be a byproduct of a more strung out deal.

today is make it or break it day IMO.  I'll be on the road much of it, but will be watchin as best i can. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

so far 6z's largely held serve but Icon has us southers sniffin and seein taint. 

Regardless of antecedent cold, the lack of 50/50 is possibly why, but my hopes is that as CAD which is often stronger than modelled, will give the late correction S as we near go time will hopefully bring southers back.  

LIke others have stated, i'd be ok w/ a more strung out/less pronounced deal.  Would like to see the quicker secondary pop as well, but thats wishcasting and doesnt really count disco wise. IMO that'd be a byproduct of a more strung out deal.

today is make it or break it day IMO.  I'll be on the road much of it, but will be watchin as best i can. 

I’m he ICON is the worst model, so not worried whatever it shows.

Euro & GFS & Euro AI along with their ensembles all show us getting buried. If the southern tier mixes at the end, it would likely be after a foot is on the ground.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

with GFS Ukie, and Euro looking good to really good, that's a nice way to start the day.  Surely not wise to discount Icon and CMC, but regardless it looks like taint is possible but shouldnt be a major factor north of M/D line.  Hope that trend holds today.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS is the best snow amount Op run since back when this storm showed last week when we were still in fantasy land.

This would be a top 10 storm at MDT if it somehow verified.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

with GFS Ukie, and Euro looking good to really good, that's a nice way to start the day.  Surely not wise to discount Icon and CMC, but regardless it looks like taint is possible but shouldnt be a major factor north of M/D line.  Hope that trend holds today.

Believe me, it’s ok to discount the Icon, lol.

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m he ICON is the worst model, so not worried whatever it shows.

Euro & GFS & Euro AI along with their ensembles all show us getting buried. If the southern tier mixes at the end, it would likely be after a foot is on the ground.

yeah i know it is but as you know, we look at all for trends and there are 2 that think the warming and taint should be a concern (in addition to typical climo that always has that fear for us southers).  I'd think if we "survive" today, we'll be ok, and yeah, if we taint after we get pounded, thats fine.  

[mahantango#1]

Some models are showing 30mph winds on Monday after the storm...fun times ahead. If we get the forecasted amounts of snow with the cold and wind...we will indeed be talking about an old fashioned winter.

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Some models are showing 30mph winds on Monday after the storm...fun times ahead. If we get the forecasted amounts of snow with the cold and wind...we will indeed be talking about an old fashioned winter.

ive really not looked post storm, but yeah, that'd be rather disruptive to travel if the state has =/- 12" otg like some models show. 

Ol fashioned winter sounds awesome.  

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro is another burial.

Southern tier mixes at the end this run, but only after 15 inches is on the ground.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Region-wide 20+ inches on the 6z GFS...

now that is a picture not often seen for Pa.  Wow...just wow.  

[Jns2183]

I laughed reading this this morning
.
Entry 1: Pre-Storm Panic
Start Date and Time: Friday, January 23, 2026, 06:00 AM
End Date and Time: Friday, January 23, 2026, 11:30 AM
The Weenie's Diary:
"OMG OMG OMG IT'S HAPPENING. F06 GFS IS IN AND IT'S A MONSTER. THE VIRGA BOMB IS PRIMED. I'VE BEEN UP FOR 72 HOURS STRAIGHT REFRESHING TROPICALTIDBITS AND MY EYES ARE BLEEDING BUT I DON'T CARE. THE DEWPOINTS ARE CRATERING, THAT MEANS THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS GOING TO BE EPIC. WE'RE GOING TO BOMB OUT THE COLUMN AND THEN IT'S GAME OVER FOR THE NWS SNOW MAPS. MY BUNKER IS STOCKED WITH 40 POUNDS OF PIZZA ROLLS AND 12 CASES OF MOUNTAIN DEW. IF THIS DRY SLOT RUINS IT I SWEAR I'M GOING TO THROW MY MONITOR THROUGH THE WINDOW. #SNOWMAGEDDON #MODELHUGGER #NOSLEEP #NEEDMORECAPE"
Attenborough's Commentary:
Here we see the 'Apex Weenie' in the very early stages of a model run cycle. His behavior is characterized by extreme agitation and a fundamental misunderstanding of atmospheric physics. He observes a profoundly dry atmospheric column—a massive impediment to snowfall—and interprets it as a sign of an impending 'bomb'. He correctly identifies evaporative cooling but vastly overestimates its speed and underappreciates the sheer volume of moisture required to saturate such a dry air mass. His use of terms like 'CAPE' in a winter storm context further reveals his confusion, a classic display of the Dunning-Kruger effect in the wild. He is building a psychological castle on a foundation of virga.
Entry 2: The "Thump" & The Golden Cross
Start Date and Time: Saturday, January 24, 2026, 06:00 PM
End Date and Time: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 02:00 AM
The Weenie's Diary:
"HOLY MOTHER OF GOD. LOOK AT THE MIDNIGHT RUN. LOOK AT IT. IT'S THE GOLDEN CROSS. THE DGZ IS THICKER THAN MY SKULL AND THE OMEGA IS OFF THE CHARTS NEGATIVE. THIS ISN'T SNOW, THIS IS A WHITE OUT OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS. WE ARE GOING TO RIP 5 INCH PER HOUR RATES. THE RATIOS ARE GOING TO BE LIKE 30:1, IT'S GOING TO BE PURE FLUFF. I'M GOING OUTSIDE NAKED TO MEASURE IT. THE NAM WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG, ALL HAIL THE NAM. THE EURO IS TRASH. I TOLD YOU ALL ON THE FORUMS, I CALLED THIS SIX DAYS AGO WHEN IT WAS JUST A GLINT IN THE GFS'S EYE. NOBODY LISTENED TO ME. WHO'S LAUGHING NOW? #GOLDENCROSS #DENTRITES #RIPPIN #HISTORIC #NAMKING"
Attenborough's Commentary:
The Weenie has now entered a manic phase, triggered by a genuinely favorable model presentation. He correctly identifies the co-location of lift and the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), a legitimate signal for heavy snow. However, his reaction is completely disproportionate. He wildly exaggerates the potential snowfall rates and ratios, inventing a '30:1' figure based on pure adrenaline rather than thermodynamic reality. His newfound allegiance to a single model run, the NAM, and his dismissal of all others is a classic behavioral trait, demonstrating a lack of understanding of ensemble forecasting. His claim of having 'called it' six days prior is a fascinating example of revisionist history, a common coping mechanism in this species.
Entry 3: The Dry Slot Meltdown
Start Date and Time: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 10:00 AM
End Date and Time: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 04:00 PM
The Weenie's Diary:
"NO NO NO NO NO. WHAT IS THIS? WHAT IS THIS GARBAGE ON THE RADAR? A DRY SLOT? ARE YOU KIDDING ME? THE GFS IS A JOKE. IT'S A RAG. I HATE THIS MODEL. IT ALWAYS DOES THIS. IT LURES YOU IN AND THEN STABS YOU IN THE BACK WITH A DRY TONGUE OF DEATH. MY DGZ IS GONE. MY RATES ARE GONE. IT'S GOING TO SNIZZLE ISN'T IT? I'M GOING TO GET AN INCH OF ICE ON TOP OF MY 20 INCHES OF FLUFF AND IT'S GOING TO RUIN EVERYTHING. MY LIFE IS OVER. I'M CANCELLING MY FIOS, I'M SELLING MY HOUSE, I'M MOVING TO ANTARCTICA WHERE THERE ARE NO DRY SLOTS. THE NWS KNEW THIS WOULD HAPPEN, THEY WERE IN ON IT. CONSPIRACY! #GFSISDEADTO ME #DRYSLOTOFDOOM #SNIZZLE #IHATEWEATHER"
Attenborough's Commentary:
We now observe the Weenie in the depths of a predictable crash. The appearance of a mid-level dry slot—a common feature in mature winter cyclones—is perceived not as a meteorological event, but as a personal betrayal by an inanimate computer model. His emotional regulation completely fails. He catastrophizes the situation, assuming a total cessation of snow and an immediate transition to freezing drizzle ("snizzle"), despite the sounding only showing a risk of it. His paranoia deepens as he invents conspiracies involving the National Weather Service. It is a pitiful display of a creature whose entire emotional well-being is tethered to the deterministic output of a single, imperfect numerical weather prediction system.



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[mahantango#1]