Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Ruin]

I hope we can get the storm to go up the coast a bit more or even tuck in instead of kicking more out to sea when its gets up close to nj it just exits right 

 

[MickeyTim6533]

6Z is a crush job

[anotherman]

[Voyager]

Region-wide 20+ inches on the 6z GFS...

[Yardstickgozinya]

30 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I hope we can get the storm to go up the coast a bit more or even tuck in instead of kicking more out to sea when its gets up close to nj it just exits right 

 

No, I believe there's a transfer along the coast involved and  depending on how that baton gets passed, will make a difference on amounts and p type. 

[Ruin]

28 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

No, I believe there's a transfer along the coast involved and  depending on how that baton gets passed, will make a difference on amounts and p type. 

Yeah, most of the models are saying that it does get kicked out more east than north. Thus, that's why most of the precipitation ends early monday.I hope we can get it to stay a little bit longer into the afternoon on monday

[pasnownut]

so far 6z's largely held serve but Icon has us southers sniffin and seein taint. 

Regardless of antecedent cold, the lack of 50/50 is possibly why, but my hopes is that as CAD which is often stronger than modelled, will give the late correction S as we near go time will hopefully bring southers back.  

LIke others have stated, i'd be ok w/ a more strung out/less pronounced deal.  Would like to see the quicker secondary pop as well, but thats wishcasting and doesnt really count disco wise. IMO that'd be a byproduct of a more strung out deal.

today is make it or break it day IMO.  I'll be on the road much of it, but will be watchin as best i can. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

so far 6z's largely held serve but Icon has us southers sniffin and seein taint. 

Regardless of antecedent cold, the lack of 50/50 is possibly why, but my hopes is that as CAD which is often stronger than modelled, will give the late correction S as we near go time will hopefully bring southers back.  

LIke others have stated, i'd be ok w/ a more strung out/less pronounced deal.  Would like to see the quicker secondary pop as well, but thats wishcasting and doesnt really count disco wise. IMO that'd be a byproduct of a more strung out deal.

today is make it or break it day IMO.  I'll be on the road much of it, but will be watchin as best i can. 

I’m he ICON is the worst model, so not worried whatever it shows.

Euro & GFS & Euro AI along with their ensembles all show us getting buried. If the southern tier mixes at the end, it would likely be after a foot is on the ground.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

with GFS Ukie, and Euro looking good to really good, that's a nice way to start the day.  Surely not wise to discount Icon and CMC, but regardless it looks like taint is possible but shouldnt be a major factor north of M/D line.  Hope that trend holds today.