Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU Weather Center

@MUweather

The talk of the town is now Sunday’s potential storm. However, the main players remain unchanged from today’s system. With no blocking and no 50/50 low, I’m not biting on the nonsense shown on today’s GFS run. A flatter, weak wave and progressive system is most likely (EURO).

While we need the blocking for something big, I don't think any here are lookin for a big dog on this one.  He's right, it is still a progressive flow, but this one is all about the trough axis and how much it can dive in to push this up the coast and slow the eastward progression.  Many here would take a 2-4" scooter up da coast, and be just fine.  Point is that trough axis is the key to the snowy promise land on this weekend.  Not enough dig, it slides off the carolinas and we smoke distant cirrus here.   

[Superstorm]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro isn't buying what the GFS is trying to sell. Yet. 

Its way west of its previous run.

 

Still gives New England a blizzard.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Its way west of its previous run.

 

Still gives New England a blizzard.

I don't see that at all. I thought it looked to me like even New England got absolutely nothing. 

[Superstorm]

I don't see that at all. I thought it looked to me like even New England got absolutely nothing. 

No, you’re right. I was looking at wrong model (GFS) as I was toggling back and forth between pivotal and TT.


.

[Ruin]

6 hours ago, anotherman said:

I have never seen this degree of uncertainty with the models.  Big changes can happen, even within 72 hours.  No way to know what late January will be like at this point.

That's my a complaint yet I get bashed over such things. People never really answer me.They just kind of shove it off to the side, and just say i'm complaining

[anotherman]

12 minutes ago, Ruin said:

That's my a complaint yet I get bashed over such things. People never really answer me.They just kind of shove it off to the side, and just say i'm complaining

I'm not complaining.  It's more of a query.  Why are they struggling so much?

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, Ruin said:

That's my a complaint yet I get bashed over such things. People never really answer me.They just kind of shove it off to the side, and just say i'm complaining

BUT... @anotherman posts a lot without complaining, versus you, who seems to complain all the time. Well, not all the time. You do throw in a couple of random (i.e. "bad") observations like you did a couple of weeks ago when you posted an observation of 33 degrees when everyone, literally everyone in every direction around you was in the 20s. Even our main red tagger called you out on that. Further, you also take all of this to other forums and complain there as well. 

Complaining is fine as a one-off. Incessant complaining gets old really quick, and I think that's why you're "shoved to the side." 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, Ruin said:

That's my a complaint yet I get bashed over such things. People never really answer me.They just kind of shove it off to the side, and just say i'm complaining

It's because that's all you do is....complain and blame mets for blown forecasts.  Weather isnt just data generated and the science behind it is what the allure is for many here.  You seem to want simple weather outputs that hit 100% of the time.  Just not gonna happen, and you know it. 

Maybe you throw your weather thoughts into the ring, and we'll see how that goes.  Otherwise, expect much the same.  

[Ruin]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

It's because that's all you do is....complain and blame mets for blown forecasts.  Weather isnt just data generated and the science behind it is what the allure is for many here.  You seem to want simple weather outputs that hit 100% of the time.  Just not gonna happen, and you know it. 

Maybe you throw your weather thoughts into the ring, and we'll see how that goes.  Otherwise, expect much the same.  

Because from the start, no one has actually given an actual reason why the models suck so badly. They give excuses.They say it's not as bad as you think.It is, or they just don't respond to the question.That's why I complain.We're in twenty twenty six.We think a model or a forecast should be accurate at least 223 days out but it isn't

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Because from the start, no one has actually given an actual reason why the models suck so badly. They give excuses.They say it's not as bad as you think.It is, or they just don't respond to the question.That's why I complain.We're in twenty twenty six.We think a model or a forecast should be accurate at least 223 days out but it isn't

Well, its gonna be tough sleddin in here for you, because things are nowhere close to what you'd like in modeling. 

You either need to accept it, or get over it, because its really old and stale reading your same rants over and over.  

[Blizzard of 93]

I’m most interested short term in the Saturday chance at this point.

The coastal chance on Sunday will likely be too far to our south & east to impact most of CTP, unless we see significant changes the next few days.

The 18z Euro gives many of us near 1 inch on Saturday.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z RGEM & NAM were interested in a Saturday light event as well for us.

[Blizzard of 93]

Really strong signal for this range on the 18z AI EPS for Next weekend.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GEFS also likes the late next week potential.

[AccuChris]

0z NAM suite shows friday night-saturday snow shield alive and well



.

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

0z NAM suite shows friday night-saturday snow shield alive and well



.

Good, hopefully the rest of 0z is similar.

[Blizzard of 93]

23 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

0z NAM suite shows friday night-saturday snow shield alive and well



.

3k NAM is delivering a solid Advisory event to the LSV on Saturday as well At the end of its 60 hour run.

[MAG5035]

9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU Weather Center

@MUweather

The talk of the town is now Sunday’s potential storm. However, the main players remain unchanged from today’s system. With no blocking and no 50/50 low, I’m not biting on the nonsense shown on today’s GFS run. A flatter, weak wave and progressive system is most likely (EURO).

Nonsense or not this is the third run GFS in a row today that has shown a fairly impactful event running the whole way up.. starting all the way down in New Orleans with accumulating snow. Still not impacting C-PA or most of the LSV, but this is way more wound up than anything else. 

0z vs 18z GFS. I’m using a 10:1 map so I can do the 48 hr total and separate out the other LES and light snows leading up to this. 

18z Euro did try to come toward this scenario a bit, having a snow swath down to the Gulf Coast (starting in FL panhandle) but not as robust and mostly offshore. I dunno, progressive and positive tilt along with a lack of phasing probably argues towards the Euro end of things. On the other hand, could argue this has room to come west given axis of what is now a massive western ridge is along the Pacific Coast. New RGEM and Canadian don’t dig the responsible shortwave anywhere near as far down as GFS/Euro and it comes out faster and fires the coastal by Sunday morning off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This actually does impact C-PA with lighter snows but really impacts New England, pretty much a late blooming coastal solution for us with no snow anywhere near the Deep South. Certainly a lot of differences for an event that’s already starting in the outer reaches of NAM range. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Nonsense or not this is the third run GFS in a row today that has shown a fairly impactful event running the whole way up.. starting all the way down in New Orleans with accumulating snow. Still not impacting C-PA or most of the LSV, but this is way more wound up than anything else. 

0z vs 18z GFS. I’m using a 10:1 map so I can do the 48 hr total and separate out the other LES and light snows leading up to this. 

18z Euro did try to come toward this scenario a bit, having a snow swath down to the Gulf Coast (starting in FL panhandle) but not as robust and mostly offshore. I dunno, progressive and positive tilt along with a lack of phasing probably argues towards the Euro end of things. On the other hand, could argue this has room to come west given axis of what is now a massive western ridge is along the Pacific Coast. New RGEM and Canadian don’t dig the responsible shortwave anywhere near as far down as GFS/Euro and it comes out faster and fires the coastal by Sunday morning off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This actually does impact C-PA with lighter snows but really impacts New England, pretty much a late blooming coastal solution for us with no snow anywhere near the Deep South. Certainly a lot of differences for an event that’s already starting in the outer reaches of NAM range. 

 

It will be fascinating to watch this unfold in the next couple of days.

Hopefully the Euro takes another positive step tonight.

[Jns2183]

I have a super long post that will take a few separate post.


The snowfall in Harrisburg is driven by a combination of global atmospheric patterns and what we call "Timing Luck"—the localized, chaotic meeting of moisture and cold air that large-scale indices like the NAO and PNA cannot predict. Our analysis identifies "Luck" as the residual snowfall surplus or deficit left over after accounting for these global drivers. While atmospheric patterns explain about 6–9% of the variability, the rest comes down to whether individual storms happen to "phase" correctly over our region. The 1960s (1961–1970) stand out as a once-in-a-millennium statistical outlier where Harrisburg received a massive +110-inch "luck" surplus, effectively gaining nearly one-third of its total snowfall through perfect timing rather than just favorable global setups.
In contrast, the current period from 2021 to 2025 has been characterized by a deep "luck deficit," rivaling the extreme snow droughts of the 1950s. Even when atmospheric indices are neutral or slightly favorable, we are currently underperforming our "expected" snowfall by over 5 inches per year. Our modeling shows that while the 1960s were a ~1,700-year fluke of extreme overperformance, the current deficit represents a significant run of "bad luck" where storm tracks have consistently avoided the Susquehanna Valley. For those interested in the deep-dive statistics, including the return periods for our luckiest years (1961, 1996) and unluckiest years (1980, 1998, 2023), please see the attached images for the full distribution and decade-by-decade breakdown.


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[Jns2183]

Part 2

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[Jns2183]

Final part

Haha, I spent way too long on this to not put forth my pet theory regarding the 1960s. The absolute insane return periods for "luck" and just plain actual snow and it's correlation to some events has not been studied super well. I guess this is the sacrifice needed for us to get the winters we pray for.

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[Voyager]

Ugh...where did this Saturday snow come from? I'm likely picking up a new vehicle on Saturday, (trading in the Jeep for a GMC Terrain) and am not exactly wanting it's maiden voyage to be on snowy or icy roads.

[mahantango#1]

50 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Ugh...where did this Saturday snow come from? I'm likely picking up a new vehicle on Saturday, (trading in the Jeep for a GMC Terrain) and am not exactly wanting it's maiden voyage to be on snowy or icy roads.

I thought you were getting a prius. 

[pawatch]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Ugh...where did this Saturday snow come from? I'm likely picking up a new vehicle on Saturday, (trading in the Jeep for a GMC Terrain) and am not exactly wanting it's maiden voyage to be on snowy or icy roads.

Thanks for getting us some snow   a new vehicle is a sure fire way of getting that done.

29 degrees so far it looks dry out, but really windy.

JNS that’s a nice project!