Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU Weather Center

@MUweather

The talk of the town is now Sunday’s potential storm. However, the main players remain unchanged from today’s system. With no blocking and no 50/50 low, I’m not biting on the nonsense shown on today’s GFS run. A flatter, weak wave and progressive system is most likely (EURO).

While we need the blocking for something big, I don't think any here are lookin for a big dog on this one.  He's right, it is still a progressive flow, but this one is all about the trough axis and how much it can dive in to push this up the coast and slow the eastward progression.  Many here would take a 2-4" scooter up da coast, and be just fine.  Point is that trough axis is the key to the snowy promise land on this weekend.  Not enough dig, it slides off the carolinas and we smoke distant cirrus here.   

[Superstorm]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro isn't buying what the GFS is trying to sell. Yet. 

Its way west of its previous run.

 

Still gives New England a blizzard.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Its way west of its previous run.

 

Still gives New England a blizzard.

I don't see that at all. I thought it looked to me like even New England got absolutely nothing. 

[Superstorm]

I don't see that at all. I thought it looked to me like even New England got absolutely nothing. 

No, you’re right. I was looking at wrong model (GFS) as I was toggling back and forth between pivotal and TT.


.

[Ruin]

6 hours ago, anotherman said:

I have never seen this degree of uncertainty with the models.  Big changes can happen, even within 72 hours.  No way to know what late January will be like at this point.

That's my a complaint yet I get bashed over such things. People never really answer me.They just kind of shove it off to the side, and just say i'm complaining

[anotherman]

12 minutes ago, Ruin said:

That's my a complaint yet I get bashed over such things. People never really answer me.They just kind of shove it off to the side, and just say i'm complaining

I'm not complaining.  It's more of a query.  Why are they struggling so much?

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, Ruin said:

That's my a complaint yet I get bashed over such things. People never really answer me.They just kind of shove it off to the side, and just say i'm complaining

BUT... @anotherman posts a lot without complaining, versus you, who seems to complain all the time. Well, not all the time. You do throw in a couple of random (i.e. "bad") observations like you did a couple of weeks ago when you posted an observation of 33 degrees when everyone, literally everyone in every direction around you was in the 20s. Even our main red tagger called you out on that. Further, you also take all of this to other forums and complain there as well. 

Complaining is fine as a one-off. Incessant complaining gets old really quick, and I think that's why you're "shoved to the side." 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, Ruin said:

That's my a complaint yet I get bashed over such things. People never really answer me.They just kind of shove it off to the side, and just say i'm complaining

It's because that's all you do is....complain and blame mets for blown forecasts.  Weather isnt just data generated and the science behind it is what the allure is for many here.  You seem to want simple weather outputs that hit 100% of the time.  Just not gonna happen, and you know it. 

Maybe you throw your weather thoughts into the ring, and we'll see how that goes.  Otherwise, expect much the same.