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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

ChescoWx
ChescoWx

Another 1.0" has fallen here in East Nantmeal since 6am total snow 8.5"  Still some light snow temp down to 26.9

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

18z AI's looked nice for next weekend.  I'll be casually watchin this over the weekend.  Looks like some trackin is about to ensue.

the Ducks look dead in da water.  Indiana impressive

0z GFS went crazy for the Thursday chance…

Maybe there’s still a chance to reel in both chances next week?!

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

The evolution of the GFS Thursday bomb is wild.  The low initially comes up from the southwest and makes it nearly to State College.  Then the brakes jam on, the low completely stops and proceeds to secondary due south to south central Virginia at which point it begins bombing, crashing from 997 to 983.  I don't have to even look at the upper air maps to know that the low has to cut off and become stacked.  It then jumps northeast to the tidewater area producing near blizzard conditions in DC/MD/DE with the low center over the northern most tip of Chesapeake Bay.  So the cold air has completely encircled the low center as it brings the heavy snow up into south central / south eastern PA / then southern NJ, then northern NJ / NYC and onward to the northeast.

Let's just say I did a little paraphrasing above, so I haven't described it as seen verbatim, but reasonably close.  I can't think of a snowstorm that ever traversed the path the GFS is showing here.  Instead of a secondary jumping to the coast, it jumps due south from our region and pops over south central Virginia before it slowly progresses NNE along the coast and even just inland over Maryland.  Anyway, I took the time to do the PBP only because of the low's evolution and wild path it is shown to take.  That caught my eye more than the snow, that is until accumulations around here had reached 12-20"...lol.  Okay, that's it for me.  (I hope you all know I don't believe it will likely pan out like this.)  But it's just great to be tracking again, and even a potential monster later next week. 

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Rainfall total has sure dwindled down. Originally .76” then it went to .51”

30 degrees 

Yes those rainfall totals dwindled. What looked like a good rain event went to crap. Just like our snow storms they went to crap too so far this winter. Hopefully Blizz can pull that magic rabbit out of his hat 30 here also.

OIP.E-t862F-MJTXP4mDzkQeuAHaFZ?pid=Api&P=0&h=220

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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, waaaaaayyyyyy toooooo sooooon to be saying something like that!

We have 2 chances in the next 9 days.

Stay tuned to see if we go 0-2, 1-1        or 2-0 !

Lots of twists & turns to be determined…

I’m with you Blizz but we have seen this story many times and know the outcome. I’ll stay the course for now in hope models get some consistency.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

A needed wet day ahead with rainfall amounts approaching an inch in some lucky areas. It will be chilly with temperatures in the upper 30's to lower 40's. The sun returns tomorrow but don't be surprised if you see a couple snow showers around before the Eagles game at 430pm. Temperatures will be seasonably chilly this week with the exception of Wednesday which looks to be well into the 40's to near 50 for highs before we turn much colder to end the week. There will be increasing chances of some wintry events at some point late this week and early next week.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

If we're going to get one storm, I'd rather it be Friday instead of Sunday. That way, I get a day off work, then the weekend to clean it up. A Sunday storm would make me work my ass off Monday morning, then be at work by 8am.

I want it to come as early as possible since I'm driving to Florida next weekend. I'm rooting against the second window because of that. I'm all in on a storm on the 15th.

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I want it to come as early as possible since I'm driving to Florida next weekend. I'm rooting against the second window because of that. I'm all in on a storm on the 15th.

So the 15th is perfect. You travel in safety, and I get a day off. Win-win situation.

There's nothing worse than spending three hours digging out before the sun comes up, then working a 12 hour day on perhaps dicey roads, because if the roads are somewhat passable, boss man will want us to run.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, paweather said:

I’m with you Blizz but we have seen this story many times and know the outcome. I’ll stay the course for now in hope models get some consistency.

I've been sayin for a couple days now, there is gonna b a lot of shit in da chute....so it really is gonna be a matter of timing, and why you are seeing a myriad of solutions being offered.  

NS is about to meet SS for first time in a while, and we just gotta figure out spacing/timing of vorts.  No matter what we see in runs over the weekend, its really gonna b Mon/Tues till it gets sorted IMO.  That said, its a HUGE win that the pattern is shaping up like it is.  How much snow does ones back yard see....TBD, but I'm a tad giddy to see the pattern coming (and why I've been chirpin bout it since early this week.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, paweather said:

Good call Blizz something to look forward to!

In fairness, Blizz isnt "callin" anything.  If I may say on his behalf, we both are just seeing the potential (and he has an affinity to post perty maps).  

I'd gas up the car regardless.....thats a call I think we are safe making :lol:

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z GFS says we could go 2 for 2 !

Second storm next Sunday this run produces another Warning level chance.

This snow is ONLY for the Sunday storm chance.

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09-10 esq.....

Been about that long since weve enjoyed back to back warnin level snows.  

 

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