Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Ruin]

21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are CTP’s thoughts for tomorrow.

By the mid to late afternoon (New Years Eve), a wave of low
pressure will drift eastward across the Great Lakes, and drag an
Arctic front south through the Commonwealth. Underneath a
favorable left exit region of an upper jet, this front could
produce a threat of snow squalls late Wednesday evening into the
New Year. Current expectation is that the front and associated
snow squall threat will move into northwest PA in the 6-8PM
timeframe and then race southeast, crossing the I-99 corridor
between 10PM and midnight and then getting into the Lower
Susquehanna Valley between midnight and 2AM. Anyone planning
to travel for the New Year should be prepared for the risk of
snow squalls. If a Snow Squall Warning is issued, delay travel
or exit the highway at the next opportunity.

This is my problem they change a forecast 30 times before the day happens and say they are accurate. 

[Ruin]

51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My "issue" with MU is all about the tone in his messages. It seems like he's aggressively defending his warm-biased ideas. He's always been a warm weather guy but he's never been so brazen about it. It feels like he's been getting some sort of negative feedback and is fighting back. Whatever it is, it's not a good look.

Many many mets have a warm bias 

[WmsptWx]

[Jns2183]

Was  this an actual environmental sample from the 880s , or modeled, and what time?  

Dual pol radar velocity measurements via radarscope using distance radius tool which helpfully includes beam height with distance with passing line

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[Jns2183]

MU continues to make very...interesting posts.
Needless to say, he's not enthusiastic over the advertised pattern in January. Meaning, he isn't buying it. 

The wind only allowed me a couple hours of sleep last night after tree crashed in neighbors yard so I made a pot of coffee and made great progress on my project. I have daily indicies values for NAO, AO, PNA, GBI, ENSO, SO, MJO for 1950-2025 that all have been standardized for 1950-2000 period. The last 3 on the list took forever due to having calculated them from raw data. Once I found NOAA data documentation it was manageable. I also have Harrisburg raw data from 12/1/1899 to present. I standardized it over same period while smoothing according to NWS policy. I just started running ungodly statistical tests involving lagging correlations but the main point here is I have lost a lot of faith in MU. So much of the final outcome here is basically down to timing luck and mesodynamics but that still doesn't take away from teleconnection stacking the deck some going through his Twitter history he doesn't like to put his cards on the table until the time to do so is way over, nor does he explain in a logical coherent manner before the fact why he thinks what he says. It's alwAys later using post fact rationalization using data, events, facts that one arent really related to teleconnection. He's basically dipping into that mesodynamics, timings, whatever else whitch brew to let his prejudice be known. Because here is the kicker. He doesn't treat other months of the year anywhere like he does winter. Probably lowering .confidence overall in him for winter months by 25%. Just because our luck factor, climatology speaking with snow is poor, isn't a reason to hide behind it.

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[mahantango#1]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
333 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

PAZ012-018-019-025-034-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-010845-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Bedford-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
333 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

1 to locally 3 inches of snow is expected this afternoon through
Thursday morning.

In addition, A line of snow showers/squalls will move through during
the evening hours this New Year`s Eve. If a Snow Squall Warning is
issued for your location, delay travel or exit the highway at the
next opportunity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
333 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

PAZ026>028-035-036-056-057-059-063>066-010845-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
333 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of snow showers/squalls will move through during the evening
hours this New Year`s Eve. If a Snow Squall Warning is issued for
your location, delay travel or exit the highway at the next
opportunity.

[mahantango#1]

[mahantango#1]

[Mount Joy Snowman]

24 when I left the house. Some light radar returns overhead this morning but nothing was reaching the ground. Excited to see who can catch a squall later tonight. Hope everyone has a fun and safe New Year’s Eve. 

[Voyager]

11 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Timing of the squalls could line up perfectly for ringing in the New Year. Someone might have a whiteout at exactly 12 midnight.

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 Someone might have a whiteout at exactly 12 midnight.

Um we don't need to know what your plans are tonight...TMI.

[Voyager]

8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Um we don't need to know what your plans are tonight...TMI.

Now here's some real TMI. We have no plans to welcome in 2026 with a bang...lol

[pasnownut]

13 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You were out in that wind most of the day!? A true warrior you are, Nut. 

3 days in a row.  yeah...my wires dont alwasy touch.  My cheeks look like santas after his annual trek round the world. Takin today off.  Lotsa miles on my boots and I'm not compainin.  Glad that I can do it. 

Today was total gym and ab roller (done), so now headed into work for a couple hours (even though I'm technically "off").  

To all my pals here, happy NYE, and all the best in the New Year.

 

[canderson]

It was nice to sleep last night. Thanks for calming down, wind. See you next week sometime. 

Hope we can get a coating to .5” with the squall tonight. 

Maybe we can time that and have two coatings! /badjpke

[mahantango#1]

As we close out this year, a lot of us didn't get the weather we wanted.  Let's hope this coming year brings a snowstorm. With 2 to 3 feet of dry powdery snow with 40mph plus winds for 3 consecutive days. I'm sure a lot on here will be happy with that. Then we can move forward to Spring, and satisfy our warm weather friends.

[canderson]

22 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

As we close out this year, a lot of us didn't get the weather we wanted.  Let's hope this coming year brings a snowstorm. With 2 to 3 feet of dry powdery snow with 40mph plus winds for 3 consecutive days. I'm sure a lot on here will be happy with that. Then we can move forward to Spring, and satisfy our warm weather friends.

Can we lower the winds to 20ish? If so, sold! 

[mahantango#1]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Can we lower the winds to 20ish? If so, sold! 

It's your weather, you can customize it the way you want it.

[ChescoWx]

Happy New Years Eve to all of you!

Yet another well below normal temperature day to close out 2025. In fact this will be the 3rd straight month with below normal average temperatures, and we will finish the year with 7 of the 12 months with temperatures below normal. I have to crunch the final

numbers tomorrow, but this will likely be a top 10 coldest December here in Chester County in the last 45 years. For many spots across the County we will remain below freezing through the weekend with below normal temperatures likely through at least the 1st week of 2026. We could see some snow showers toward

midnight tonight and through the overnight hours with maybe a coating in spots.

Have a safe and festive New Years Eve!!

[mahantango#1]

Looks like I'll close out the year 2025 with 39.55in of rainfall. So we'll carry over the current drought to the new year. Maybe it will be a little wetter next year, and we can put drought behind us.

[RedSky]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

It was nice to sleep last night. Thanks for calming down, wind. See you next week sometime. 

Hope we can get a coating to .5” with the squall tonight. 

Maybe we can time that and have two coatings! /badjpke

I dunno tomorrow will be windy with a nasty squall potential in the early morning

 

[canderson]

It’s snowing here 

[MAG5035]

19 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

To provide the MU guy a tiny defense, 

 

James Spann posted the 8-14 day outlook about an hour ago and it shows warmth over just about the entire CONUS while referencing just a couple of days ago it showed "extreme cold."

 

So I wonder if more mets are going through it. 

Models have not done well in the mid-long range this winter, which might sound like a captain obvious thing to say but typically they’ll get a general idea of the overall pattern in the 6-10 day range. I don’t personally think the highly touted AI models have done notably better either. I’m sure it’s an expectation thing with folks that with everything available that forecasting just HAS to get more accurate. My opinion on AI modelling is while I’m sure it excels at pattern analysis, it’s still only as good as the initial data/information you’re putting into it. Which basically puts it in the same boat as the standard physics based models. You still need accurate observation data/sampling, and preferably.. the more data points the better. 

Anyways, I think the high changeability on modelling stems from a few things like blocking (NAO), which models never do well with. MJO is also in the null phase and forecast to remain there for the foreseeable future, so there’s no real coherent signal from that realm. I’d be more willing to buy what the MU guy is trying to sell about January if we were staring down a strong and long lasting pulse into phases 4-6, but we’re not. Another reason is simply our general area has been in a spot where the high variability of the models has had the biggest impact on actual forecast weather differences.

I did originally like the storm potential around the 8th/9th a few days ago, but I do believe the models are starting to register on the EPO and WPO going positive in that timeframe to go with a -PNA. The WPO has been solidly negative the last few weeks and a big reason why there’s been plenty of cold available in Canada. That’s probably going to overcome the -NAO and is why we’re now seeing eastern ridging and a more rainy looking scenario with systems around then. But that doesn’t look to last, we keep the negative NAO and the WPO/EPO is forecast to go right back negative. So while that period next week isn’t looking as great, I think things still tend to look at least seasonably cold overall in the longer term and we’ll have opportunities. My big issue with this winter has been actual storms (Gulf sourced/coastal), we’ve had a real lack of them this season dating back through the fall.