Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[AccuChris]

Here is the latest AFD from Mt Holly NWS for perspective…talk about making changes on the fly. Bottom line…the NAM suite handled the warm nose intrusion so far north and east best. Typically, models under estimate mid-level warming but are too quick to warm the surface. Keep the NAM scorecard in your back pocket for future systems this winter, especially when it comes to p-type issues, it usually does well, even if an outlier


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[Voyager]

I have a lightning detector on my station, and so far it hasn't recorded any up my way.

[canderson]

Roads starting to get white with the sleet - which had been solid for more now than all day in length of time 

[GrandmasterB]

Anyone else having tiny, mangled flakes mixing with the sleet? 

[Yardstickgozinya]

33 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Is it because of lack of detectors? Or what do you feel the cause is?

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In my mind, I would think that the ice  sleet ,snow, rain, fog ,cloud cover would, all  affect electromagnetic pulse  detection,but according to Ai it doesn't, I personally don't have much faith in the answers that Ai gives yet

[Jns2183]

Here is the latest AFD from Mt Holly NWS for perspective…talk about making changes on the fly. Bottom line…the NAM suite handled the warm nose intrusion so far north and east best. Typically, models under estimate mid-level warming but are too quick to warm the surface. Keep the NAM scorecard in your back pocket for future systems this winter, especially when it comes to p-type issues, it usually does well, even if an outlier


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Imagine the anger around here going from a winter storm warning to your ice storm warning during the course of a storm. Social media would be multiple levels below it's already low level according to dantes inferno.

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[Yardstickgozinya]

6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Anyone else having tiny, mangled flakes mixing with the sleet? 

Radiant flakes are the only flake classification  I've seen in storms this year. I've actually brought that up in a few of my post.

[Superstorm]

Anyone else having tiny, mangled flakes mixing with the sleet? 

Millersville reported light snow last hour so could be that.


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[mahantango#1]

Looks like a half inch of sleet on the ground here.

[Jns2183]

You can always count on Connecticut for being slow

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[Jns2183]

Looks like a half inch of sleet on the ground here.

It's definitely heavy sleet whenever heavier returns make it over us

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[MAG5035]

20 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Here is the latest AFD from Mt Holly NWS for perspective…talk about making changes on the fly. Bottom line…the NAM suite handled the warm nose intrusion so far north and east best. Typically, models under estimate mid-level warming but are too quick to warm the surface. Keep the NAM scorecard in your back pocket for future systems this winter, especially when it comes to p-type issues, it usually does well, even if an outlier
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I typically put heavier stock on stuff like the 3k NAM and the HRRR when we get into the short and near term range with these mixing events. They just handle the finer mesoscale details and thermals a bit better than the globals, which can broadbrush things like accums in our area when it comes to CAD, terrain effects, downsloping etc. 

I think the big thing in this situation might be that the mid level features ended up a bit further NE and we ended up more towards what the NAM suggested. Like I said in a post response a page or two ago, the big warm air intrusion is above 850mb.. up nearer to the 700mb level but mainly around 750-800mb. If your looking at the typical maps to determine snow (850, 925, even 700mb temps), you might think things are good for an all snow column. Soundings of the full column were/are important for this one. I think NYC still has a chance to do okay because when the low jumps to the coast later it will cool that warm nose a bit and they may hold on to mostly snow even if they mix early. But we’ll see. On the line there is the biggest snowfall since 2022. 

 

[WmsptWx]

I think Ruin has the same type of setup my parents use. Thermometer in the kitchen says 33 in lower Huntingdon county when the nearest recording shows 29. 

There is no way something in your kitchen is reliable and accurate. 

[Jns2183]

I think next time I see a WAA event targeting Richmond to DCA I'm going all in on a big snow here.

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[Jns2183]

It's also horrendous out. Some guy just spun out on 11/15, crossed lanes, got hit. Luckily other person was going very slow

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[canderson]

Looks like we here are about done with a big dryslot. Oddly roads in the city are recove8jg as sleet is melting  

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

It's great to see you posting here again while In town. Hope all is well!

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It always feels so good posting in here. It’s where I posted the most back in the day when I was at school. A lot of you here are always thought about when storms are impacting PA. 
 

I want a monster snowstorm so I can hop in here more often with a forecast!! 
 

In weather news, just changed to 70/30 snow/sleet. Decent sized flakes at that. Whitening up pretty good out there. 
 

27/26

[anotherman]

Looks like we here are about done with a big dryslot. Oddly roads in the city are recove8jg as sleet is melting  

Must be near Ruin’s house.

[Jns2183]

Looks like we here are about done with a big dryslot. Oddly roads in the city are recove8jg as sleet is melting  

It's a small dry slot. The roads here in camp hill are completely ice covered. No hint of truck or anything

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[canderson]

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Must be near Ruin’s house.

LOL

Im guessing the treatment is making a headway we are dry - anything untreated is still white 

[MAG5035]

Up to 30 here with a steady light freezing rain, the kind that accumulates the most efficiently. Starting to be noticable in the trees. 

13 minutes ago, canderson said:

Looks like we here are about done with a big dryslot. Oddly roads in the city are recove8jg as sleet is melting  

I’d look for lingering freezing drizzle a good part of the overnight after the main precip moves out in the next couple hours, something CCX radar might not necessarily see down that way. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

I will say this - over the past hour my temp has risen from 27.5 up to 29.5. Anyone else seeing any rise in temps?

Edit: MAG has.

[anotherman]

I will say this - over the past hour my temp has risen from 27.5 up to 29.5. Anyone else seeing any rise in temps?
Edit: MAG has.

Yep. I’m at 30 now.

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I will say this - over the past hour my temp has risen from 27.5 up to 29.5. Anyone else seeing any rise in temps?

Edit: MAG has.

30 here now 

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Up to 30 here with a steady light freezing rain, the kind that accumulates the most efficiently. Starting to be noticable in the trees. 

I’d look for lingering freezing drizzle a good part of the overnight after the main precip moves out in the next couple hours, something CCX radar might not necessarily see down that way. 

 

Good point- radar wont pick up drizzle which will definitely freeze on contact 

[Jns2183]

Still at 28 here.

I now see winds forecast easily 40-50+ late Monday to Tuesday with another great lakes bomb going off

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[canderson]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

Still at 28 here.

I now see winds forecast easily 40-50+ late Monday to Tuesday with another great lakes bomb going off

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Better than the 60-70 that was looking likely early this eeek! 

[Jns2183]

Better than the 60-70 that was looking likely early this eeek! 

It's still a bombing low then. I might go over on the forecast just due to that. Winds seem to be ramping up again on models after slumping for a few days

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[HBGCPA10]

13 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Still at 28 here.

I now see winds forecast easily 40-50+ late Monday to Tuesday with another great lakes bomb going off

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RIP my trashcans for Tuesday pick up.

[Blizzard of 93]

Sleet covered roads at least make it look more wintry. Looks to be about half an inch of sleet out there on top of a glaze of freezing rain. Freezing drizzle later should make this a real treat to remove in the morning from the sidewalk.