Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Whoever runs the current MU weather account definite has a "sunny and 75" bias. Eric Horst was good at keeping the social media accounts neutral during his time. 

He/she also needs an editor.  

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Whoever runs the current MU weather account definitely has a "sunny and 75" bias. Eric Horst was good at keeping the social media accounts neutral during his time. 

Problem is...there aren't many Eric Horsts to be found. We were so fortunate to have him, and you can attest to that first hand.

[Jns2183]

Whoever runs the current MU weather account definitely has a "sunny and 75" bias. Eric Horst was good at keeping the social media accounts neutral during his time. 

They went on a rant for the ages when they came to gribs their torch was not going to happen Friday.

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[Jns2183]

To flurries and sprinkles.

If anything I would bet the over on freezing rain, ice

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[mahantango#1]

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

This forecast is wayyyyyyyyyyy off for CTP area at least!

Wow, they are truly delusional & living in fantasy land! 

[Jns2183]

At this point I'd be afraid to go over 5" for NYC

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[Blizzard of 93]

CTP is on their game this morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Precipitation enters west-central Pennsylvania slightly after
  sunrise, with a mix of freezing rain and sleet being the
  predominant precipitation type at onset.
- Wintry mix expands across all of central Pennsylvania during
  the morning hours, continuing through the evening hours.
- Prolonged threat for freezing rain on Friday brings the
  highest ice accumulation across western Pennsylvania, where an
  Ice Storm Warning is in effect.
- Sleet/snow accumulations across the rest of central
  Pennsylvania will bring slick conditions for those traveling
  on Friday, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

More from CTP 

An impactful winter system is expected to impact central
Pennsylvania on Boxing Day (Friday) with a wintry mix in play
for the entire forecast area as a shortwave trough and low
pressure associated with this feature currently stationed over
the Midwest approach the region. Ahead of this system, departing
high pressure has allowed for some clearing with a shallow cold
air wedge beginning for form on the eastern periphery of the
Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming (CAD) set up ahead
of the precipitation. Given this signal, have trended
temperatures throughout the entire near-term below NBM guidance
given that there will be impact on precipitation types as
temperatures generally range in the mid-to-upper 20s across the
area as precipitation begins across the region.

Recent model soundings continue to outline an elevated warm
nose across western Pennsylvania, which continues to outline
this area for the highest freezing rain potential with this
system in the areas where an Ice Storm Warning remains in
effect. The bulk of model guidance continues to outline freezing
rain continuing throughout much of the event across the Laurels
and portions of northwestern Pennsylvania, with the best timing
for significant icing coming between 18Z-00Z (1pm-7pm EST) with
some sleet beginning to mix in during this timeframe. Minimal
changes to the forecast in this area of the CWA with this
forecast cycle, thus the Ice Storm Warning remains in good shape
moving forward.

Further east, there recent HREF model guidance continues to
outline the central third of the forecast area for sleet
potential at onset with areas north/east of I-80/US-15 likely
experiencing a brief window of snow before transitioning to
sleet after 18Z (1pm EST). Sleet/snow accumulations generally
range between below an inch for the southwestern two-thirds of
the forecast area with recent NBM/HREF model guidance bringing a
slight increase in snowfall totals across the eastern periphery
of the forecast area, where 1-2" of storm-total snowfall is
expected. Winter Weather Advisory remains unchanged this cycle;
however, quicker movement of the system could promote the bulk
of precipitation tapering off across the forecast area shortly
after midnight Friday night.

[mahantango#1]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This forecast is wayyyyyyyyyyy off for CTP area at least!

Wow, they are truly delusional & living in fantasy land! 

Glad DT brings us back to reality.

[Blizzard of 93]

Looking out to the longer range, the full first week of January looks to be active with chances for Wintry weather. Current modeling shows storm systems actually approaching from the south & west instead of the current northern stream dominated pattern from the last few weeks.

I think we may be busy tracking on here just after New Year’s.

Here’s an example from the overnight Euro & GFS of the early January potential.

[pawatch]

23 degrees this morning. Very red sky that lasted less than 5 minutes.

All these forecasts are interesting. Obviously it’s easy to tell who the anti snow forecasters are. CTP still trying to save face from the earlier call. So many varied calls.

[Jns2183]

23 degrees this morning. Very red sky that lasted less than 5 minutes.
All these forecasts are interesting. Obviously it’s easy to tell who the anti snow forecasters are. CTP still trying to save face from the earlier call. So many varied calls.

Maybe the good forcasters were just on extended Christmas vacation and the a-team is all back in the office today.

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[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Looking out to the longer range, the full first week of January looks to be active with chances for Wintry weather. Current modeling shows storm systems actually approaching from the south & west instead of the current northern stream dominated pattern from the last few weeks.

I think we may be busy tracking on here just after New Year’s.

Here’s an example from the overnight Euro & GFS of the early January potential.

All ensemble snowfall imby are horrendous with 1-2". I know they aren't accurate, but usually because they are too high! That's the problem! Lol

[WmsptWx]

28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This forecast is wayyyyyyyyyyy off for CTP area at least!

Wow, they are truly delusional & living in fantasy land! 

That is Steven DiMartino from... Freehold, NJ. 

[canderson]

Remember kids, don’t clear sleet until this event is over. ZR on sleet = manageable, zr on asphalt = bad times

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 24. Currently sitting at 26/13 and excited for whatever comes our way. 

[Blizzard of 93]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

All ensemble snowfall imby are horrendous with 1-2". I know they aren't accurate, but usually because they are too high! That's the problem! Lol

Well, I remember last year when for 2 or 3 weeks in late January into mid February, all 3 global ensemble models had our region consistently near 10 inches or more of snow. 
Ground truth turned out to be a light event or two. Point is, I no longer get excited about the 15 day ensemble totals until there is a specific threat to track. They should mainly be used for pattern recognition & identifying windows of opportunity in my opinion.

[GrandmasterB]

34 minutes ago, pawatch said:

23 degrees this morning. Very red sky that lasted less than 5 minutes.

All these forecasts are interesting. Obviously it’s easy to tell who the anti snow forecasters are. CTP still trying to save face from the earlier call. So many varied calls.

I enjoyed tracking this storm simply from the uniqueness of the event. Not often you see a storm that’s primarily ice from the onset. Especially with temps in the 20’s and dews in the teens. We are usually hovering around 30/31 which makes ice accretion difficult. Let’s see what this storm has in store for everyone. 

[paweather]

43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Looking out to the longer range, the full first week of January looks to be active with chances for Wintry weather. Current modeling shows storm systems actually approaching from the south & west instead of the current northern stream dominated pattern from the last few weeks.

I think we may be busy tracking on here just after New Year’s.

Here’s an example from the overnight Euro & GFS of the early January potential.

Lots of ICE in those images Blizz. Let’s hope for some H’s to the north of us in a good position for SN. Lots of time.

[GrandmasterB]

27 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

That is Steven DiMartino from... Freehold, NJ. 

I remember when he posted in the Philly forum under NYNJWeather. Skilled met but often times too aggressive with snow maps. 
I grew to appreciate Horst when he was posting for MU. He was conservative but quite often more accurate than other calls. The new MU account is so clearly warm biased that it detracts from their messaging. 

[Blizzard of 93]

25 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

That is Steven DiMartino from... Freehold, NJ. 

I didn’t realize that was good old Steve D. I would love for him to be right for back here in our area, but I don’t see any of us getting near 4 or 6 inches. 
Maybe we get 1 or 2 of slop.

[Superstorm]

I remember when he posted in the Philly forum under NYNJWeather. Skilled met but often times too aggressive with snow maps. 
I grew to appreciate Horst when he was posting for MU. He was conservative but quite often more accurate than other calls. The new MU account is so clearly warm biased that it detracts from their messaging. 

Totally agree.

Horst was one of best in the Northeast/Mid Atlantic, period.

And the warm bias mantra does tick me off, but it could be my “snow tinted” glasses, lol.


.

[canderson]

Interesting, CTP has removed freezing rain accretion from the HBG forecast. Guessing the lack of precip is really cutting down on the light rain toward the em. 
 

Today

A chance of snow and freezing rain before 3pm, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between 3pm and 4pm, then sleet after 4pm. High near 32. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Tonight

Freezing rain and sleet, mainly before 11pm. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[Jns2183]

That is Steven DiMartino from... Freehold, NJ. 

I'm surprised he's sticking with that forecast. Normal WAA usually always has last second big north tick in snow, the mid layer warmth is usually under modeled, the surface level cold is also usually under modeled. I'm guessing he sees something with this. I know there wasn't many analogs showing up so he might be right.

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

17 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU giddy over "torchmas" today.

Him hyperventilating about one day in the low 50s on the eve of an impending winter storm, in a month where we are more than five degrees below average in aggregate, and with another cold plunge on the way for next week is, uuuummmmm, some kind of choice.

[WmsptWx]

Yeah I'm really thinking for those SE of like Selinsgrove this may be a non-event. 

[WmsptWx]

Also, I kinda think we get it. The dude who runs MU's Twitter has a heat bias and is kind of unprofessional about it. That horse has been bludgeoned enough. Just ignore it lol.

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Him hyperventilating about one day in the low 50s on the eve of an impending winter storm, in a month where we are more than five degrees below average in aggregate, and with another cold plunge on the way for next week is, uuuummmmm, some kind of choice.

Additionally, most of us are slightly above normal snow for the season to date as well.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

8 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Yeah I'm really thinking for those SE of like Selinsgrove this may be a non-event. 

It's certainly possible, and if that does end up being the case it will likely be due to lack of qpf more than anything else.  Additionally, the worst of the conditions may hold off until much later in the evening after people are done running around, which would add to the perceived flop.  I still think conditions will be treacherous for a time tonight, but it may be late enough to not cause serious problems.  We shall see.