Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, WX-PA said:

It's called CAD..GFS and Canadian both have an ice storm with temps in the upper 20's

lol.  I know.

 

thanks thoough.

[mahantango#1]

NWS changed their tune in temps and precipitation for Friday. Those 40s and 50s are gone!

[Boreal]

Interesting snippet from  Binghamton NWS AFD (issued prior to the 12z runs)  

Of particular note is the colder trend in the model guidance
for Friday with the surface low track trending further to the
south and a high to the north supplying colder air to the region.
Should this trend continue, temperatures on Friday would be
much colder than previously expected, with upper 20s to mid 30s
for highs, rather than upper 30s to near 50 degrees for highs.
In fact, the change from the 01Z NBM to the 07Z NBM shows this
exact drastic difference. This would also mean snowier scenario
for Friday, rather than a wintry mix to rain scenario. This
will continue to be closely monitored with our upcoming forecast
packages.

[Ruin]

28 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

NWS changed their tune in temps and precipitation for Friday. Those 40s and 50s are gone!

lol and now they will act like it never was forecasted to be that warm. 

[TimB]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

for the forum you're supposed to be in...you are correct.  

But not for the forum he’s supposed to be in, which isn’t this one either.

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

NWS changed their tune in temps and precipitation for Friday. Those 40s and 50s are gone!

They heard I was coming to reason with them.

[Itstrainingtime]

Not bad - CTP dropped my projected high for Friday from 58 to 37 in about 12 hour's time. Depending on the strength of the high, it might go even lower. 

[AccuChris]

12z Euro AI Ensemble doesnt look very warm and snow chances ramp up Friday-Saturday



.

[Summit Snow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
107 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

PAZ043-044-047-230615-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0033.251223T0600Z-251223T2100Z/
Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Including the cities of Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, and
Wilkes-Barre
107 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations between 1 and 4 inches and ice accumulations around
  a light glaze.

* WHERE...Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Wyoming Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The higher end totals are expected across the
  higher elevations, where localized amounts around 5 inches are
  possible.

Expect 3" inches up here and probably 1" at AVP. Crazy Friday afternoon when we had entire snowpack wiped out and then change to heavy sleet and then snow until 7PM. Cars everywhere as the roads were a sheet of ice. Had ice and an 1 1/2" of snow while Scranton had nothing. Cut-off was nuts less than 5 miles south.

[paweather]

23 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z Euro AI Ensemble doesnt look very warm and snow chances ramp up Friday-Saturday



.

I’m liking this! Thanks Chris

[Voyager]

The random posts about people being in the wrong forums, and I think I'm on the wrong board. I'm beyond depressed with seeing Friday's temps dropping. it doesn't help when Phoenix has three consecutive weeks of record pushing warm temps and the midwest torches this week.

I like all of you, and I get good weather analysis here, but I'm a straight up warmanista, and am the antithesis of what this board was founded on and stands on.

In reality, I live in the wrong part of the country, too, and should have NEVER left Arizona after my mom passed...

[paweather]

10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

The random posts about people being in the wrong forums, and I think I'm on the wrong board. I'm beyond depressed with seeing Friday's temps dropping. it doesn't help when Phoenix has three consecutive weeks of record pushing warm temps and the midwest torches this week.

I like all of you, and I get good weather analysis here, but I'm a straight up warmanista, and am the antithesis of what this board was founded on and stands on.

In reality, I live in the wrong part of the country, too, and should have NEVER left Arizona after my mom passed...

Hang in there Voyager. Hope at some point you can move back west. You have always used this sub forum hope you don’t stop using it! 

[mahantango#1]

2 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

They heard I was coming to reason with them.

You mean you were going over to strong arm them. You know you can't reason with them dudes.

[WmsptWx]

28 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

You mean you were going over to strong arm them. You know you can't reason with them dudes.

 

[WmsptWx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service State College PA

550 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

 

PAZ025>027-231400-

/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.251223T0600Z-251223T1400Z/

Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-

Including the cities of Lewistown, Huntingdon, Mount Union, and

Altoona

550 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

 

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations around a

  light glaze and possibly a coating of snow.

 

* WHERE...Blair, Huntingdon, and Mifflin Counties.

 

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures hovering around freezing

  overnight lead to reduced confidence in potential for impactful

  icing, but motorists should be alert for changing road conditions.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road

conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by

calling 5 1 1.

 

&&

 

$$

 

For more information from the National Weather Service visit

weather.gov/StateCollege

 

Banghoff/BaucoADVISED

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

For Friday, the 18z GFS still has snow to a nasty wintry mix potential. It will all depend on the strength & position of that High sitting over Quebec. Lots of time, but good to see the trend from last night hold for today’s runs so far.

[Blizzard of 93]

MDT & Lancaster airport are both down to 31 degrees this hour with dew points in the low 20s at MDT & high teens in Lanco. 
Precip at least aloft has broken out in western PA.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT & Lancaster airport are both down to 31 degrees this hour with dew points in the low 20s at MDT & high teens in Lanco. 
Precip at least aloft has broken out in western PA.

Good luck up there. You should get an inch maybe? I haven't looked that closely at tonight as I knew I was in line for a participation trophy at best.

[Blizzard of 93]

I’m not sure what CTP is thinking for Friday, but they have not updated their forecast discussion at all in the long range portion. They updated their point & click grids this afternoon as a few folks mentioned, but they still aren’t addressing the growing concern for Wintry weather on Friday, which again will be a major travel day for many.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

For Friday, the 18z GFS still has snow to a nasty wintry mix potential. It will all depend on the strength & position of that High sitting over Quebec. Lots of time, but good to see the trend from last night hold for today’s runs so far.

Fwiw, Nam is the coldest of it, the Euro and Gfs. Euro is a little cooler than half way between the other 2. That's as of 84hrs on the 18z runs.

[Blizzard of 93]

Thankfully Mt. Holly has a very good discussion for the Friday potential…

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high.
Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern
Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and
toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring
widespread precipitation to our area. The more recent trends
over the last few runs from guidance has resulted in significant
changes to the forecast. The main reason is a much stronger
high that suppresses a weaker low. This trend keeps much of our
area in a setup for colder air to remain in place thanks to the
stronger high to the north. A more suppressed and southern track
of this low keeps widespread precipitation for the area but
also prevents a lot of the warm air advection from getting into
the region. The updated forecast now has highs on Friday in the
mid to upper 30s for the I- 95 corridor and west with mid to
upper 20s in the Poconos. Areas south and east of the I-95
corridor have highs in the low to mid 40s. Wintry precipitation
is now the result for much of the area for at least part of the
timeframe from daybreak Friday into Saturday. Mixed
precipitation may make it as far south as parts of Delmarva.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, Nam is the coldest of it, the Euro and Gfs. Euro is a little cooler than half way between the other 2. That's as of 84hrs on the 18z runs.

How did the 18z Euro AI & GFS AI trend for us for Friday?

[HBGCPA10]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT & Lancaster airport are both down to 31 degrees this hour with dew points in the low 20s at MDT & high teens in Lanco. 
Precip at least aloft has broken out in western PA.

36 degrees with 22 dew point in West Hanover Township. Not expecting much.

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, HBGCPA10 said:

36 degrees with 22 dew point in West Hanover Township. Not expecting much.

With that dew point you should drop to near 30 when precipitation arrives.

Tonight is a light event, but it doesn’t take much frozen to cause road issues.

[WmsptWx]

CTP just posted on FB about Friday. That feels significant.

[Voyager]

4 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

CTP just posted on FB about Friday. That feels significant.

Ha. Just screenshotted it, and was going to post it.

[WmsptWx]

Just now, Voyager said:

Ha. Just screenshotted it, and was going to post it.

Too goddamned large lol

[Ruin]

current radar  precip looking way ahead of schedule and very spotty/dry too?

[anotherman]

[Voyager]

11 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Too goddamned large lol

I got you. Here it is... hopefully.