Dec 6-7th (It's not a clipper) Clipper

[Chicago Storm]

something is afoot.

[A-L-E-K]

Call looking solid, maybe a tad light.

[Mogget]

I have awakened to a WWA for 3-6 inches tonight.  I am reminded that clipper by any other name will still drop sweet snow.

[hawkeye_wx]

The 00z models were north, but the overnight and morning trend has been back south.

[Baum]

Ground zero to start winter this year. It’s been a minute or 11 years.

[ChiTownSnow]

RAP all the way.. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The RRFS from 00z to 12z.

[cyclone77]

Always nice to have the windshield wiper effect on the models 12hrs before the first flakes.  

[hawkeye_wx]

5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Always nice to have the windshield wiper effect on the models 12hrs before the first flakes.  

The globals have been much more stable (and south) than the CAMs.

[Harry Perry]

These clipper not clippers don’t like Lake Michigan for some reason. 

[cyclone77]

13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The globals have been much more stable (and south) than the CAMs.

Very true.

[Chicago Storm]

The globals have been much more stable (and south) than the CAMs.

i wouldn’t say that.

the globals had a sizable shift north, and now with the decent shift south of the cams. essentially converging on a solution.

[mannynyc]

Pack is starting to melt so I'm just hopeful for a nice refresher. Would be very happy with three solid inches.

[KeenerWx]

Meh, on southern fringe so not expecting much. Hope it overperforms for those further north, though!

[hawkeye_wx]

6 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Pack is starting to melt so I'm just hopeful for a nice refresher. Would be very happy with three solid inches.

Our 11" shrunk by half pretty quickly.

[ChiTownSnow]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Our 11" shrunk by half pretty quickly.

All while consistently below freezing.. melting from ground up thankfully had stopped

[migratingwx]

Nice little event shaping up.

 

[ChiTownSnow]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

All while consistently below freezing.. melting from ground up thankfully has stopped

 

[Chicago Storm]

All while consistently below freezing.. melting from ground up thankfully had stopped

It’s still melting from ground up.

Soil temps are in the mid 30’s still, with the snow insulating the ground from the cold.

[Paulie21]

Pretty much all models hinting at a nice corridor of higher UVVs for northern IL tonight between 850mb - 750mb. Not perfectly co-located with the small area of DGZ but not bad at all for a couple hours of 1"+/hr rates perhaps. 

Not perfectly textbook case but looks like theta-e lines in the cross section are more spaced out and climbing. Perhaps some slantwise convection possible? Not a perfect setup but it does coincide with best LRs (saturated) in the sounding, strong speed shear above veering wind profile, AND weak absolute vorticity. Could really thump right before dawn.

[frostfern]

4 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

These clipper not clippers don’t like Lake Michigan for some reason. 

Summer is invading winter.  What happened to lake effect?

[frostfern]

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Our 11" shrunk by half pretty quickly.

I didn’t get out of bed in time to measure the official 9” total IMBY with that last storm.  It was already down to 7” by the following afternoon.  It’s around 5.5” now but high water content with a layer of freezing drizzle and dense sloppy on top.

[hawkeye_wx]

DVN just upgraded my area to a winter storm warning and 5-7".  I'm not expecting 7, but 5 would be nice.

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

DVN just upgraded my area to a winter storm warning and 5-7".  I'm not expecting 7, but 5 would be nice.

Our county as well.  Point has 4.8" here, but some 6" amounts in the north part of the county.  Models generally average 0.25-0.35" here.  Looking like a solid 3"er with maybe a bit more if ratios play ball.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Got all the ingredients for an overachiever. Hoping for 4-6 out my way 

[Chambana]

Looking like a dusting here, which is fine with me, after the insanely fast start to winter. Congrats to the i80 crew. 

[RCNYILWX]

WSSI suggests that DVN upgrading some counties to a warning was a very aggressive move. Given that we had a warranted daytime warning event a week ago, it's questionable if the possibility of getting a narrow band of 6-7" of snow on a Saturday evening-early Sunday warning is sufficient to prompt a warning. Sticking with a WWA seems like it would've been fine. We'll see how it goes.

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[ChiTownSnow]

13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

WSSI suggests that DVN upgrading some counties to a warning was a very aggressive move. Given that we had a warranted daytime warning event a week ago, it's questionable if the possibility of getting a narrow band of 6-7" of snow on a Saturday evening-early Sunday warning is sufficient to prompt a warning. Sticking with a WWA seems like it would've been fine. We'll see how it goes.

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Does this index attempt to quantify impact to average person? with factors like time of day/week and commute..etc?   I had thought the impact is more of a factor in warnings these days?

[Baum]

21 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

WSSI suggests that DVN upgrading some counties to a warning was a very aggressive move. Given that we had a warranted daytime warning event a week ago, it's questionable if the possibility of getting a narrow band of 6-7" of snow on a Saturday evening-early Sunday warning is sufficient to prompt a warning. Sticking with a WWA seems like it would've been fine. We'll see how it goes.

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QC notorious 

[mimillman]

Those are some serious returns around Ames